Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 1 poll of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+16.4 — a 85% Republican win. With only a poll or two this early, the forecast stays cautious and leans partly on the seat's history.
Forecast over time
The model's win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date. Dashed line = even odds.
Latest news
Billionaires Have Two Parties. Why Do the People of America's Great Plains Have Only One?Not so long ago the Democrats wielded significant power in the Great Plains states. In 1990, 10 of the 18 Senators from Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Missouri, Iowa, South Dakota, North Dakota, Montana, and Idaho were Democrats. Today, none are. In much of this…
Common Dreams · June 3, 2026
Nebraska Democrat Wins Senate Primary—But Signals She'll Drop Out and Back Working-Class Independent Dan OsbornThe winner of the Democratic US Senate primary in Nebraska has no expectation that she'd be able to win the general election in November, and her official website alludes to a plan to drop out of the race—which could ultimately help the party in its goal of w…
Common Dreams · May 13, 2026- Nebraska election results: Democrat wins, but plans to drop out - USA Today
Nebraska election results: Democrat wins, but plans to drop outUSA Today Cindy Burbank Wins Senate Primary in Nebraska, but Plans to Drop Out to Help Dan OsbornThe New York Times Nebraska Democratic Senate primary winner says she’ll drop out to support indepe…
Slashdot.org · May 13, 2026 
Cindy Burbank wins Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate in NebraskaCindy Burbank wins Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate in Nebraska
Abcnews.com · May 13, 2026- Ricketts, Osborn set for November Senate showdown, with Democrat expected to drop bid - The Hill
Ricketts, Osborn set for November Senate showdown, with Democrat expected to drop bidThe Hill 4 Takeaways From Tuesday’s Primaries in Nebraska and West VirginiaThe New York Times Cindy Burbank wins Nebraska Democratic Senate primary, CNN projects. She’s expec…
Slashdot.org · May 13, 2026
- As Dems Form Circular Firing Squad, Townhall Uncovers Damning Video Behind the Platner Dumpster Fire
The slow-motion car crash that is scandal-ridden Maine Democrat Graham Platner and his campaign to unseat Republican Sen. Susan Collins took another strange turn Tuesday, this time thanks to the stellar work of our sister site, Townhall. Kyle Olson over at To…
Freerepublic.com · July 8, 2026 
What’s at Stake if Congressional Republicans Let Planned Parenthood Get Millions on America’s BirthdayOn America’s 250th anniversary, Planned Parenthood, the nation’s largest provider of abortions, will once again be eligible for federal funding after a year-long ban that coincided with the closure of dozens of abortion clinics. Some members of Congresss, lik…
Daily Signal · June 25, 2026- Nebraska Senate Candidate Dan Osborn Wants ‘Preemptive’ Mental Health Checks For AR-15 Owners
The independent challenging Republican Nebraska Sen. Pete Ricketts called for owners of modern semiautomatic firearms to undergo a mental health evaluation every five years as a prerequisite to renew registration of the guns. Dan Osborn, who lost to Republica…
Freerepublic.com · June 12, 2026 
Nebraska Senate Candidate Dan Osborn Wants ‘Preemptive’ Mental Health Checks For AR-15 OwnersThe independent challenging Nebraska Sen. Pete Ricketts wants owners of modern semiautomatic firearms to undergo a mental health evaluation every five years.
The Daily Caller · June 11, 2026
GOP Spends Big Against Working-Class Progressive Leading Democratic Primary in PARepublicans are pulling out all the stops to prevent a working-class populist from snatching the Democratic nomination in the heart of Pennsylvania coal country on Tuesday and earning the right to challenge one of the GOP's most vulnerable incumbents, Congres…
Common Dreams · May 19, 2026
Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tavern Research | 2026-05-11 | 1165 | R+9.0 |