Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 2 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts D+37.0 — a 99% Democratic win. With only a poll or two this early, the forecast stays cautious and leans partly on the seat's history.
Forecast over time
The model's win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date. Dashed line = even odds.
Latest news
Jeanine Pirro begs judge to extend deadline over Kash Patel's 'drinking' recordsA top federal prosecutor asked a judge this week for two more weeks to respond to a lawsuit over FBI Director Kash Patel's alleged 'drinking,' citing a crush of emergency cases.U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro, whose office covers the District of Columbia, is the …
Raw Story · Yesterday
FBI personnel surge in Georgia now under scrutiny by Senate DemsSenate Democrats want to know why the FBI is requiring hundreds of intelligence analysts to perform records checks related to the investigation in the 2020 election in Georgia, according to a letter obtained exclusively by MS NOW. Sen. Mark Warner, the rankin…
Biztoc.com · Yesterday
Sen. Warner Demands DOJ Probe Into Homeland Security Network BreachSen. Mark Warner, D-Va., vice chair of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, has called on the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and the Department of Justice (DOJ) to look into a recently revealed breach of a DHS information-sharing network. That …
Biztoc.com · July 2, 2026
Sen. Warner Demands DOJ Probe Into Homeland Security Network BreachSen. Mark Warner, D-Va., vice chair of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, has called on the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and the Department of Justice (DOJ) to look into a recently revealed breach of a DHS information-sharing network. That …
pymnts.com · July 2, 2026
Consumers need protection from AI agents, lawmaker saysAs artificial intelligence spreads across the U.S. economy, Sen. Mark Warner wants to rein in AI agents, the autonomous bots that can complete tasks for consumers, such as booking trips and shopping online. The Virginia Democrat is supporting a first-of-its-k…
Biztoc.com · June 30, 2026
EXCLUSIVE: Ex-FBoy Island Star Mark Moran Drops Virginia Senate Bid, Sets Eyes On Soros-Backed DASenate candidate Mark Moran told the Daily Caller News Foundation that he is dropping out of his race and mulling a bid against a Soros-linked prosecutor.
The Daily Caller · June 17, 2026- US soldier arrested for allegedly making over $400,000 on Polymarket with classified Maduro information
United States soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke has been arrested and charged for placing bets on prediction marketplace Polymarket using classified information he had access to related to the capture of former Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro. The US Army Speci…
Slashdot.org · April 24, 2026 
Congressional Candidates Caught Betting on Their Own RacesKalshi, an online political betting platform, has fined and suspended three congressional candidates who placed bets on their own races, the company announced Wednesday. The candidates are Mark Moran, an independent running in Virginia’s U.S. Senate race; Tex…
Daily Signal · April 23, 2026
Prediction market platform Kalshi suspends 3 congressional candidates who bet on their own races“YES, I did bet ~$100 on myself on Kalshi because I wanted to get caught…” Mark Moran, who is running for US Senate in Virginia as an independent, wrote on X.
New York Post · April 23, 2026
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Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Public Sentiment Institute | 2026-06-16 | 996 | D+44.0 |
| The Public Sentiment Institute/Virginia Project | 2026-05-05 | 1047 | D+25.0 |