Democratic
David Roth
Major-party general-election nominee.
← all Senate races
David Roth vs. Jim Risch: Idaho U.S. Senate election, 2026
David Roth vs. Jim Risch. Incumbent re-elected.
VotePredictor forecast (our model)
Jim Risch favored
Safe R
99%
chance to win
R+32.0
predicted margin
Poll-driven model · 3 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology → · Today's article: every poll and forecast →
Republican
Jim Risch
Incumbent. Voting record and biography →
Other listed candidates
- Todd Achilles · Independent
- Natalie Fleming · Independent
- Matt Loesby · Libertarian
Polls
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstEach pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain). VotePredictor adjusted (“Our adj.” on small screens) is not a poll: it is our correction of that poll, for its pollster's record in past elections and for registered-voter or all-adult samples. It is the number our forecast reads.
PollsterDateSampleMarginOur adj.VotePredictor adjusted
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Jim RischUNK · incumbent$5.0M raised
Spent $5.1MCash on hand $2.1M5% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$344k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$273k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$174k
- Legal & Professional Services$97k
- Unemployed$49k
States
- NY$344k
- ID$298k
- CA$249k
- FL$221k
- TX$128k
Todd AchillesIND$1.9M raised
Spent $1.7MCash on hand $196kDebts $23k25% from donors under $200Self-funded $34k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$372k
- Not Reported$295k
- Retired$58k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$47k
- Technology & Communications$17k
States
- ID$630k
- CA$139k
- WA$80k
- CT$50k
- NY$43k
David RothDEM$15k raised
Spent $15kCash on hand $279Debts $10k40% from donors under $200Self-funded $3k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$2k
- Retired$950
- Self-Employed & Freelance$500
States
- ID$3k
- MD$500
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The Senate forecast does not read these figures. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
VotePredictor (ours)
R 99%
a probability from our model
Cook
Solid R≈ R 99%
as of Nov 2, 2026
DDHQ
Safe R≈ R 99%
as of Nov 3, 2026
Econ
Safe R≈ R 99%
as of Nov 3, 2026
FPO
Safe R≈ R 99%
as of Nov 2, 2026
Fox
Solid R≈ R 99%
as of Nov 1, 2026
IE
Solid R≈ R 99%
as of Oct 29, 2026
MS NOW
Safe R≈ R 99%
as of Oct 29, 2026
NBC
Solid R≈ R 99%
as of Nov 3, 2026
RCP
Solid R≈ R 99%
as of Nov 2, 2026
Sabato
Safe R≈ R 99%
as of Nov 2, 2026
Silver
Solid R≈ R 99%
as of Nov 3, 2026
ST
Safe R≈ R 99%
as of Nov 2, 2026
The source we collect records each outlet's rating category, not a probability; some of these outlets run models with their own numbers on their sites. The ≈ figure is the standard conversion of the category (Toss-up 50%, Tilt 60%, Lean 75%, Likely 90%, Solid 99%), the one our scorecard grades them on, not a number they published. They remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Past results
Every U.S. Senate election in Idaho we hold a result for. A state elects two senators on separate cycles, so this covers both of its seats, not only the one on the ballot in 2026.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Book Review: Going Infinite
Published on October 24, 2023 3:00 PM GMTPreviously: Sadly, FTX I doubted whether it would be a good use of time to read Michael Lewis’s new book Going Infinite about Sam Bankman-Fried (hereafter SBF or Sam). What would I learn that I did not already know?…
Lesswrong.com · October 24, 2023
Republican incumbent Sen. Mike Crapo faces off against Democrat David Roth in Idaho's US Senate election
Republican Sen. Mike Crapo faces off against Democratic challenger David Roth in ruby-red Idaho.
Business Insider · November 8, 2022
Midterm updates | Roth wins Dem primary for Senate in Idaho
David Roth has won Idaho's Democratic primary for U.S. Senate.
Minneapolis Star Tribune · May 18, 2022
2523 - Trump's Second Impeachment Trial & Biden's Stimulus Issues w/ Benjamin Dixon & David Roth
Sam hosts Benjamin Dixon (@BenjaminPDixon) of the Benjamin Dixon Show and David Roth (@david_j_roth), editor at Defector and host of The Distraction Podcast, to discuss the week's top stories including the second senate impeachment trial of Donald Trump and t…
Majorityreportradio.com · February 12, 2021
@IDJoe4Congress -- Deleted after 12 minutes 9 minutes ago
Sammy Hager and David Roth are running for office in Idaho.
ProPublica · April 3, 2020
Idaho Republican Sen. Jim Risch Leads Fake Independent by Nearly 30 Points
Idaho GOP Sen. Jim Risch leads his nearest competitor in the U.S. Senate race by 27 points, according to an internal poll. The post Idaho Republican Sen. Jim Risch Leads Fake Independent by Nearly 30 Points appeared first on Breitbart.
Breitbart News · October 21, 2026
Conservatives demand competition — except in their own primaries
Conservatives say they believe in competition. So why on earth do we tolerate a political system in which one man effectively picks our candidates before voters have a chance to examine them?Friedrich Hayek understood why monopoly is dangerous: “Our freedom o…
TheBlaze · October 21, 2026
Quite Possibly The Best Political Ad Ever
If candidate quality mattered, Todd Achilles would defeat the rubber stamp for Trump that is Jim Risch. But since it often doesn't in places like Idaho, he likely won't win, but he should. via YouTube Todd Achilles is an independent running for Senate in Idah…
Crooksandliars.com · September 27, 2026