Democratic
Adam Hamilton
Major-party general-election nominee.
← all Senate races
Adam Hamilton vs. Roger Marshall: Kansas U.S. Senate election, 2026
Adam Hamilton vs. Roger Marshall. Incumbent lost re-election. Democratic gain..
VotePredictor forecast (our model)
Adam Hamilton favored
Toss-up
63%
chance to win
D+1.0
predicted margin
Poll-driven model · 18 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology → · Today's article: every poll and forecast →
Republican
Roger Marshall
Incumbent. Voting record and biography →
Other listed candidates
- David Graham · Libertarian
Polls
The polls behind it
20 polls · 18 in today's forecast · newest firstDimmed polls are more than 61 days old. They stay on the record, but today's forecast no longer counts them. Each pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain). VotePredictor adjusted (“Our adj.” on small screens) is not a poll: it is our correction of that poll, for its pollster's record in past elections and for registered-voter or all-adult samples. It is the number our forecast reads.
PollsterDateSampleMarginOur adj.VotePredictor adjusted
The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government10-262026-10-26D+9.0D+8.1
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Adam HamiltonDEM$19.2M raised
Spent $16.3MCash on hand $2.9MDebts $50k24% from donors under $200Self-funded $50k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
- HAMILTON, ADAM$50k
- KASTNER, RICK$14k
- O'BRIEN, LINA$14k
- TORLINE, JAYNE$14k
- FAIN, DOUGLAS$13k
Industries
- Unemployed$1.9M
- Self-Employed & Freelance$196k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$71k
- Legal & Professional Services$48k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$25k
States
- KS$2.3M
- MO$343k
- TX$91k
- DC$64k
- CA$48k
Roger MarshallREP · incumbent$7.5M raised
Spent $6.9MCash on hand $810k5% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$330k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$283k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$179k
- Legal & Professional Services$78k
- Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals$52k
States
- KS$533k
- NY$206k
- FL$167k
- TX$155k
- VA$138k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The Senate forecast does not read these figures. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
VotePredictor (ours)
D 63%
a probability from our model
Cook
Tossup≈ 50%
as of Nov 2, 2026
DDHQ
Tossup≈ 50%
as of Nov 3, 2026
Econ
Tossup≈ 50%
as of Nov 3, 2026
FPO
Lean D (flip)≈ D 75%
as of Nov 2, 2026
Fox
Tossup≈ 50%
as of Nov 1, 2026
IE
Tossup≈ 50%
as of Oct 29, 2026
MS NOW
Lean R≈ R 75%
as of Oct 29, 2026
NBC
Tossup≈ 50%
as of Nov 3, 2026
RCP
Tossup≈ 50%
as of Nov 2, 2026
Sabato
Lean D (flip)≈ D 75%
as of Nov 2, 2026
Silver
Lean D (flip)≈ D 75%
as of Nov 3, 2026
ST
Lean D (flip)≈ D 75%
as of Nov 2, 2026
The source we collect records each outlet's rating category, not a probability; some of these outlets run models with their own numbers on their sites. The ≈ figure is the standard conversion of the category (Toss-up 50%, Tilt 60%, Lean 75%, Likely 90%, Solid 99%), the one our scorecard grades them on, not a number they published. They remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Independent models
Win probabilities published by independent statistical models, shown with credit as their terms allow: Who Shows Up (whoshowsup.net), by Kurt Wirth. These are their numbers, not ratings converted by us, and not VotePredictor's. The better-known model forecasters (Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Silver Bulletin, the Economist) don't permit republishing their probabilities, so they appear above by rating only.
Past results
Every U.S. Senate election in Kansas we hold a result for. A state elects two senators on separate cycles, so this covers both of its seats, not only the one on the ballot in 2026.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Sen.-elect Hamilton reflects on why Kansas voters chose a Democrat for U.S. Senate
Democrats' midterm wins have reached red states across the country, including Kansas, which has not sent a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1932. That will soon change after Rev. Adam Hamilton, who leads the largest United Methodist church in the country, de…
Biztoc.com · Yesterday
Sen.-elect Hamilton reflects on why Kansas voters chose a Democrat for U.S. Senate
Democrats' midterm wins have reached red states across the country, including Kansas, which has not sent a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1932. That will soon change after Rev. Adam Hamilton, who leads the largest United Methodist church in the country, de…
PBS · Yesterday
After Blue Tsunami, Progressives Don't Trust Schumer and Jeffries to Lead Congress
After a Democratic "tsunami" in this week's midterm elections that has been widely seen as "a mandate to deliver big change," progressives within and beyond Congress have cast doubt on whether the New York Democrats likely to lead both chambers are actually u…
Common Dreams · Yesterday
The Midterms Weren’t Red vs. Blue, They Were Bought vs. Not Bought
This week, voters in red and purple states sent Democrats to the Senate who ran against corporate money. James Talarico won in Texas. Annie Andrews won in South Carolina. Adam Hamilton won in Kansas. All three took $0 in corporate PAC money.More than 16 years…
Common Dreams · Yesterday
The Cooler-Than-You-Think History Behind the Kansas We Saw Tuesday
“Kansas, get ready to learn what a polycule is,” read one Tuesday night tweet. All in due time. Let Kansans rest up. (This includes the ethically nonmonogamous community in Lawrence.)Kansas must be exhausted. It swung left 21.06 points Tuesday. As everyone no…
The New Republic · Yesterday
One Big Lesson for 2028
You’re reading The TNR Blue Book. Get daily scoops, strategy, and developments inside the liberal ideas factory delivered right to your inbox. Sign up for free.Inside Washington “As other states shift left in a brutal cycle, Florida does what we do best—we he…
The New Republic · November 5, 2026
The last time a Kansas Democrat was in the Senate, the Wizard of Oz was in cinemas - BBC
The last time a Kansas Democrat was in the Senate, the Wizard of Oz was in cinemasBBC Opinion: US Sen. Roger Marshall lost his seat long before Kansans kicked him out. He just didn't realize it.Kansas Reflector November 3, 2026 Election Results: Adam Hamilton…
Slashdot.org · November 4, 2026
Here are The Biggest Flipped Seats of Midterm 2026
Somebody check on Capitol Hill. Democrats took both chambers of Congress, but the 2026 midterms delivered a political earthquake well beyond the Beltway. Black candidates didn’t just show up—they made history. With barrier-breaking wins from Keisha Lance Bott…
The Root · November 4, 2026