Democratic
Adam Hamilton
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Kansas U.S. Senate election, 2026
Adam Hamilton vs. Roger Marshall. Incumbent renominated.
Nominee changed — Hamilton won the primary
Every poll on file for this seat asks about Patrick Schmidt, but he lost the August 5 Democratic primary to the Rev. Adam Hamilton, senior pastor of the country's largest United Methodist congregation, who took just under 35% in an eleven-way field. Cook moved the seat from Solid to Likely Republican on the result. The forecast returns once a pollster asks about Hamilton vs Roger Marshall.
No forecast is published for this race. Adam Hamilton is the Democratic nominee; the forecast returns once a pollster asks about the new matchup.
Republican
Roger Marshall
Incumbent. Voting record and biography →
Polls
No verified 2026 general-election poll is currently available in the feed for this race.
Other forecasts
Cook
Likely R
as of Sep 15, 2026
DDHQ
Likely R
as of Sep 22, 2026
Econ
Tossup
as of Sep 22, 2026
FPO
Lean R
as of Sep 22, 2026
Fox
Lean R
as of Sep 22, 2026
IE
Likely R
as of Sep 17, 2026
RCP
Tossup
as of Sep 20, 2026
Sabato
Likely R
as of Aug 26, 2026
Silver
Lean R
as of Sep 19, 2026
ST
Lean R
as of Sep 21, 2026
Published ratings are categorical, not probabilities, and remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Past results
Every U.S. Senate election in Kansas we hold a result for. A state elects two senators on separate cycles, so this covers both of its seats, not only the one on the ballot in 2026.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Private Polling Shows Adam Hamiliton Leading in Kansas
A Republican source familiar with the U.S. Senate race in Kansas said private polling also showed Adam Hamilton (D) with a slight lead over Sen. Roger Marshall (R-KS), The Hill reports.
Politicalwire.com · Yesterday
If the Democrats Win These Three Senate Seats, an Earthquake Happened
If I said to you, “Quick, name three states with competitive Senate races,” I’m guessing you’d probably say Texas, Michigan, and Maine. Those are the three that get the most consistent media attention. Then, under those three, there are a number of races in r…
The New Republic · Yesterday
Adam Hamilton vs. Roger Marshall: Latest Kansas Senate Race Odds and Polls
Kansas' Senate race is showing signs of becoming more competitive than Republicans might have expected in a state where Democrats haven't won a Senate seat in nearly a century. A new Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey gives Democrat Adam Hamilton a …
Biztoc.com · September 18, 2026
Democrats see a path to Congress as electoral worries spread into Trump country
Democrats' wary optimism about the midterms gave way to growing confidence this week.The party has seen strong post-Labor Day polls in key battlegrounds - and even in traditionally red areas. Recent escalations in the war in Iran, including an attack on a maj…
Yahoo Entertainment · September 18, 2026
Ex-GOP Governor Slams Roger Marshall
“Former two-term GOP Kansas Governor Bill Graves (R) released a scathing video clip this week shredding incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall (R-KS) and endorsing Marshall’s Democratic Party challenger Adam Hamilton,” Mediaite reports. Said Graves: “With our nation f…
Politicalwire.com · September 17, 2026
GOP shifts midterm priorities as concerns turn to defending seats in red states
Republicans are playing defense deep in their own territory as voter anger over price hikes puts more House and Senate seats in play in the midterms.New rounds of big spending, visits from Trump administration officials and private conversations among top GOP…
Yahoo Entertainment · Today
GOP senator alleges Schumer behind 'hit job' report on former patients
Senate Republican Roger Marshall calls a New York Times report on lawsuits against his former OB-GYN patients a Chuck Schumer-funded "hit job."
Fox News · September 20, 2026