Democratic
Adam Hamilton
Major-party general-election nominee.
← all Senate races
Kansas U.S. Senate election, 2026
Adam Hamilton vs. Roger Marshall. Incumbent renominated.
VotePredictor forecast
Roger Marshall favored
Lean R · predicted margin R+10.7
76%
chance to win
Poll-driven model · 2 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology →
Republican
Roger Marshall
Incumbent. Voting record and biography →
Polls
| Pollster | Date | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| GQR | 2026-04-27 | R+4.0 |
| Tavern Research | 2026-01-28 | R+8.0 |
Other forecasts
Cook
Likely R
IE
Solid R
Sabato
Likely R
WH
Likely R
Econ
Lean R
RCP
Solid R
DDHQ
Likely R
Fox
Solid R
VoteHub
Likely R
FPO
Likely R
ST
Safe R
Published ratings are categorical, not probabilities, and remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Candidate news
Kansas pronoun bill sparks bipartisan concerns of turning ‘classrooms into courtrooms’
by Anna Kaminski, Kansas Reflector February 19, 2025 TOPEKA — The Kansas Senate gave preliminary approval Wednesday to legislation that would ban school district employees from using names or pronouns other than a minor student’s corresponding biological se…
Raw Story · February 19, 2025
Kansas voters delivered a thundering midterm message
One piece of advice for the Kansas GOP springs to mind after this year’s elections: Don’t underestimate women. Be it Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly, U.S. Rep. Sharice Davids, the women who ran the campaign to preserve abortion rights, or Kansas voters who turned ou…
Raw Story · November 14, 2022
MAGA 'outraged' as core voters turn against Trump in red state races: report
President Donald Trump is seeing a key group among his core voters turn against him and the MAGA movement, according to a report.A piece published by The Contrarian on Friday focused on how religious and Christian voters are souring on Trump and how pastors a…
Raw Story · Yesterday
Kansas Senate Seat Could Turn Blue With This Strong Candidate
Kansas might flip its Senate seat BLUE. No really! Democratic candidate Adam Hamilton is strong, and Kansas voters despise Sen. Roger Marshall. Democratic Senate candidate Adam Hamilton is a beloved pastor of a United Methodist church in Leawood, a suburb of …
Crooksandliars.com · August 6, 2026
Megachurch pastor rolls to victory in Kansas and could become state's first Democrat elected to Senate in nearly a CENTURY
Adam Hamilton has won the Democratic nomination for the US Senate in Kansas. Hamilton, a political outsider who works as a megachurch pastor and author, was selected as the nominee on Tuesday evening shortly after polls closed. GOP leaders are working to send…
Freerepublic.com · August 5, 2026
Big money propels Dem megachurch pastor to victory in longshot Kansas Senate bid
Adam Hamilton won Kansas Democrats' 11-way primary to challenge Sen. Roger Marshall, who calls the megachurch pastor "too woke for Kansas."
Fox News · August 5, 2026
Defiant Republican spills on private clash with Trump amid GOP calls to step aside
Rep. Max Miller (R-OH) fought for his candidacy in a private phone call with President Donald Trump on Monday, pushing back against the president's own polling that showed him losing his re-election race.Miller, a former Trump White House aide, is fighting to…
Raw Story · August 4, 2026