Democratic
Adam Hamilton
Major-party general-election nominee.
← all Senate races
Kansas U.S. Senate election, 2026
Adam Hamilton vs. Roger Marshall. Incumbent renominated.
VotePredictor forecast
Roger Marshall favored
Lean R · predicted margin R+2.2
73%
chance to win
Poll-driven model · 13 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology →
Republican
Roger Marshall
Incumbent. Voting record and biography →
Other listed candidates
- David Graham · Libertarian
Polls
| Pollster | Date | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| InsiderAdvantage | 2026-10-10 | D+1.0 |
| GBAO | 2026-10-04 | D+5.0 |
| YouGov | 2026-10-04 | D+3.0 |
| FiftyPlusOne | 2026-10-04 | D+1.1 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2026-10-01 | EVEN |
| FiftyPlusOne | 2026-10-01 | D+0.8 |
| New York Times/Siena University | 2026-09-30 | EVEN |
| FiftyPlusOne | 2026-09-24 | D+0.4 |
| Wedgewood Polls | 2026-09-24 | D+2.0 |
| Emerson College | 2026-09-16 | D+2.0 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2026-09-16 | D+2.0 |
| co/efficient | 2026-09-10 | R+5.0 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2026-08-16 | D+1.0 |
Other forecasts
Cook
Tossup
as of Oct 6, 2026
DDHQ
Lean R
as of Oct 13, 2026
Econ
Tossup
as of Oct 12, 2026
FPO
Tossup
as of Oct 13, 2026
Fox
Lean R
as of Oct 13, 2026
IE
Likely R
as of Oct 1, 2026
RCP
Tossup
as of Oct 12, 2026
Sabato
Tossup
as of Oct 14, 2026
Silver
Tossup
as of Oct 13, 2026
ST
Tossup
as of Oct 14, 2026
Published ratings are categorical, not probabilities, and remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Past results
Every U.S. Senate election in Kansas we hold a result for. A state elects two senators on separate cycles, so this covers both of its seats, not only the one on the ballot in 2026.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
How Adam Hamilton plans on winning Kansas' Senate race
Can a Democrat flip the Kansas Senate seat for the first time in nearly a century?
Abcnews.com · Yesterday
How Adam Hamilton Built a Megachurch Where People Can Disagree - The New York Times
How Adam Hamilton Built a Megachurch Where People Can DisagreeThe New York Times In Kansas, a newly competitive Senate race tests limit of Trump's unpopular policiesNPR Hamilton reports $10.6M Q3 haul for Kansas Senate race - Live UpdatesPolitico Sabato’s Cry…
Slashdot.org · Yesterday
Transcript: Trump Boast about Rallies Wrecked by Humiliating GOP Leaks
The following is a lightly edited transcript of the October 15 episode of the Daily Blast podcast. Listen to it here.Greg Sargent: This is The Daily Blast from The New Republic, produced and presented by the DSR Network. I’m your host, Greg Sargent.Earlier th…
The New Republic · Yesterday
Woke megachurch pastor, Dem nominee called for repentance over White privilege in wake of George Floyd, BLM
Adam Hamilton once urged his megachurch to repent for White privilege after George Floyd's death as he now challenges Sen. Roger Marshall in Kansas.
Fox News · Yesterday
Kansas Pastors Urge Adam Hamilton to Repent of Unbiblical Teachings, Withdraw From Senate Race
An impulse against maintaining a Christian cultural witness has caused that witness to become divided. In an open letter, Kansas Pastor Kyle Lammott called for Pastor and U.S. Senate candidate Adam Hamilton to publicly “repent of what you have taught and to w…
Freerepublic.com · Yesterday
Sen. Roger Marshall requested $4.2 million to help more water flow into a wildlife refuge but did not mention it could also benefit his ranch
U.S. Sen. Roger Marshall wanted to solve a water rights dispute in rural Kansas that pitted farmers against environmentalists and threatened the health of a cherished wildlife refuge. The avid outdoorsman requested a $4.2 million earmark, records show, to hel…
Biztoc.com · Yesterday
Sen. Roger Marshall requested $4.2 million to help more water flow into a wildlife refuge but did not mention it could also benefit his ranch
A watchdog group said the Kansas senator's funding earmark was a conflict of interest 'He should have recused himself'
Fortune · Yesterday
Roger Marshall sought funding for water shortage. The project could benefit his ranch
U.S. Sen. Roger Marshall wanted to solve a water rights dispute in rural Kansas that pitted farmers against environmentalists and threatened the health of a cherished wildlife refuge. The avid outdoorsman requested a $4.2 million earmark, records show, to hel…
Biztoc.com · Yesterday