Democratic
No Democratic candidate
Major-party general-election nominee.
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South Dakota U.S. Senate election, 2026
No Democratic candidate vs. Mike Rounds. Incumbent renominated.
VotePredictor forecast
Mike Rounds favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+30.6
98%
chance to win
Poll-driven model · 2 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology →
Republican
Mike Rounds
Incumbent. Voting record and biography →
Other listed candidates
- Brian Bengs · Independent
Polls
| Pollster | Date | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2026-05-30 | R+25.0 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2026-02-18 | R+17.0 |
Other forecasts
Cook
Solid R
IE
Solid R
Sabato
Safe R
WH
Safe R
Econ
Safe R
RCP
Solid R
DDHQ
Safe R
Fox
Solid R
VoteHub
Solid R
FPO
Safe R
ST
Safe R
Published ratings are categorical, not probabilities, and remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Candidate news
Dem drops US Senate bid, leaving independent candidate as lone challenger to incumbent GOP Sen Mike Rounds
Democratic Senate candidate Julian Beaudion dropped out of the South Dakota race, leaving only GOP Sen. Mike Rounds and independent challenger Brian Bengs in the contest.
Fox News · August 5, 2026
Democratic Nominee Quits South Dakota Race
South Dakota's Senate contest got a major shake-up on Tuesday, two months after the state's primary. Julian Beaudion, the Democratic nominee challenging GOP Sen. Mike Rounds, withdrew on the deadline to drop out of the race, citing a "devastating house fire" …
Newser · August 5, 2026
Democrat drops out of South Dakota’s Senate race, clearing path for independent
Julian Beaudion ended his campaign after winning the Democratic nomination in June, leaving GOP Sen. Mike Rounds with an independent challenger in November.
NBC News · August 4, 2026
Trump Doubles Down On Endorsing ‘Jerk’ Senator Despite Vowing To Never Back Him
President Donald Trump endorsed Republican South Dakota Sen. Mike Rounds for reelection Monday despite vowing to never support him just four years prior.
The Daily Caller · June 2, 2026
Senate Republicans Kill Democratic Attempt to Rein Trump in on Iran
Senate Republicans are allowing Donald Trump to continue to wage war with impunity.Senate Republicans voted Wednesday to block a resolution that would have stopped Trump from taking further military action in Iran without the express approval of Congress. The…
The New Republic · April 15, 2026