Democratic
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins vs. Bernadette Wilson: Alaska governor election, 2026
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins vs. Bernadette Wilson. Incumbent term-limited..
VotePredictor forecast (our model)
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins favored
Safe D
99%
chance to win
D+9.2
predicted margin
Poll-driven model · 10 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology → · Today's article: every poll and forecast →
Republican
Bernadette Wilson
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates: Dave Bronson, Treg Taylor.
Polls
The polls behind it
10 polls · newest firstEach pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain). VotePredictor adjusted (“Our adj.” on small screens) is not a poll: it is our correction of that poll, for its pollster's record in past elections and for registered-voter or all-adult samples. It is the number our forecast reads.
PollsterDateSampleMarginOur adj.VotePredictor adjusted
Other forecasts
VotePredictor (ours)
D 99%
a probability from our model
Cook
Lean D (flip)≈ D 75%
as of Oct. 29, 2026
DDHQ
Lean D (flip)≈ D 75%
as of Nov. 3, 2026
Fox
Tossup≈ 50%
as of Nov. 1, 2026
IE
Tilt D (flip)≈ D 60%
as of Oct. 29, 2026
NBC
Lean D (flip)≈ D 75%
as of Nov. 3, 2026
RCP
Lean D (flip)≈ D 75%
as of Nov. 1, 2026
Sabato
Likely D (flip)≈ D 90%
as of Nov. 2, 2026
Silver
Likely D (flip)≈ D 90%
as of Nov. 3, 2026
The source we collect records each outlet's rating category, not a probability; some of these outlets run models with their own numbers on their sites. The ≈ figure is the standard conversion of the category (Toss-up 50%, Tilt 60%, Lean 75%, Likely 90%, Solid 99%), the one our scorecard grades them on, not a number they published. They remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Independent models
Win probabilities published by independent statistical models, shown with credit as their terms allow: Who Shows Up (whoshowsup.net), by Kurt Wirth. These are their numbers, not ratings converted by us, and not VotePredictor's. The better-known model forecasters (Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Silver Bulletin, the Economist) don't permit republishing their probabilities, so they appear above by rating only.
Past results
Every Alaska election for governor we hold a result for.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Vote to Feel Something Other Than Dread About Our Future
I had my Vote! shirt on today because Third Act is running through the tape. Our Party Line senior-to-senior outreach moves into final get-out-the-vote mode today; we’ve already passed half a million phone and text contacts, and we are going to keep going til…
Substack.com · November 3, 2026
Trump fuming over midterms is a sign that MAGA collapse is brewing: historian
Historian Heather Cox Richardson argues in her latest “Letters from an American” newsletter that MAGA is showing signs of weakening at home, pointing to several recent developments.To begin with, she cites a report from Status that Fox News’s October ratings …
Raw Story · October 29, 2026
Republican Sen. Murkowski Endorses Democrat For Alaska Governor
Republican Sen. Murkowski Endorses Democrat For Alaska Governor Authored by Chase Smith via The Epoch Times, Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) has endorsed Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins for Alaska governor, backing the former state lawmaker over three Repub…
Biztoc.com · October 29, 2026
Murkowski snubs Trump-backed Alaska candidate, endorses Democrat for governor
GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska endorses Democratic gubernatorial candidate Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins for governor, despite President Trump's endorsement of a Republican candidate.
Fox News · October 28, 2026
GOP senator torpedoes Trump-backed candidate a week before Election Day: report
A Republican senator who has repeatedly clashed with President Donald Trump just undercut his pick in a closely watched governor's race.Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) endorsed Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, a former state lawmaker, in Alaska's gubernatorial ra…
Raw Story · October 28, 2026
Trump Loses His Mind Over Key Senate Race Hours Before Election
Republicans appear to be on the brink of losing power in Congress—and Donald Trump is not handling it well.The president freaked out on Monday night in a series of Truth Social posts about the Alaska Senate race, where Republican Senator Dan Sullivan is not o…
The New Republic · November 3, 2026
Trump-backed Alaska candidate blasts 'so-called Republican' Murkowski for endorsing Dem
Trump-backed Alaska gubernatorial candidate Bernadette Wilson slammed Sen. Lisa Murkowski for endorsing her Democratic opponent, accusing the two of sharing liberal economic policies.
Fox News · October 30, 2026
GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowski endorses Democratic candidate in Alaska governor’s race
The Republican senator endorsed Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins over Trump-backed Bernadette Wilson a week before Election Day.
NBC News · October 28, 2026