Democratic
Doug Jones
Major-party general-election nominee.
← all governor races
Doug Jones vs. Tommy Tuberville: Alabama governor election, 2026
Doug Jones vs. Tommy Tuberville. Incumbent term-limited. Republican hold..
VotePredictor forecast (our model)
Tommy Tuberville favored
Safe R
99%
chance to win
R+14.1
predicted margin
Poll-driven model · 4 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology → · Today's article: every poll and forecast →
Republican
Tommy Tuberville
Sitting U.S. Senator. Voting record and biography →
Polls
The polls behind it
5 polls · 4 in today's forecast · newest firstDimmed polls are more than 61 days old. They stay on the record, but today's forecast no longer counts them. Each pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain). VotePredictor adjusted (“Our adj.” on small screens) is not a poll: it is our correction of that poll, for its pollster's record in past elections and for registered-voter or all-adult samples. It is the number our forecast reads.
PollsterDateSampleMarginOur adj.VotePredictor adjusted
Other forecasts
VotePredictor (ours)
R 99%
a probability from our model
Cook
Solid R≈ R 99%
as of Oct. 29, 2026
DDHQ
Likely R≈ R 90%
as of Nov. 3, 2026
Fox
Solid R≈ R 99%
as of Nov. 1, 2026
IE
Solid R≈ R 99%
as of Oct. 29, 2026
NBC
Solid R≈ R 99%
as of Nov. 3, 2026
RCP
Solid R≈ R 99%
as of Nov. 1, 2026
Sabato
Likely R≈ R 90%
as of Nov. 2, 2026
Silver
Solid R≈ R 99%
as of Nov. 3, 2026
The source we collect records each outlet's rating category, not a probability; some of these outlets run models with their own numbers on their sites. The ≈ figure is the standard conversion of the category (Toss-up 50%, Tilt 60%, Lean 75%, Likely 90%, Solid 99%), the one our scorecard grades them on, not a number they published. They remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Independent models
Win probabilities published by independent statistical models, shown with credit as their terms allow: Who Shows Up (whoshowsup.net), by Kurt Wirth. These are their numbers, not ratings converted by us, and not VotePredictor's. The better-known model forecasters (Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Silver Bulletin, the Economist) don't permit republishing their probabilities, so they appear above by rating only.
Past results
Every Alabama election for governor we hold a result for.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Former Auburn coach Tommy Tuberville elected Alabama governor after stint in U.S. Senate
Tuberville, who coached Auburn for 10 seasons, defeated Democratic challenger Doug Jones in Alabama's gubernatorial race
CBS Sports · November 4, 2026
Legendary polling analyst reveals staggering number as midterm results roll in
Election forecaster Nate Silver says Democrats are on pace to emerge from Tuesday’s midterms holding governorships across most of the electoral map.“If the remaining results go as expected, Democrats will hold governorships in states totaling 392 electoral vo…
Raw Story · November 4, 2026
Widow of Airman Killed in Iran War Posts Vote for Democrat Doug Jones
The widow of an Air Force major who died during an Iran-related combat operation voted Tuesday for Democrat Doug Jones for Alabama governor and other candidates vowing to stop the "illegal" war. Libby Klinner, 33, said she cast her vote while thinking of what…
Biztoc.com · November 3, 2026
Jason Isbell Pledges ‘Alabama Blue’ Album If Doug Jones Wins Governor Race
If Doug Jones triumphs in the Alabama governor race, Jason Isbell says he'll record an album of Alabama cover songs, like 'Georgia Blue' before it.
Rolling Stone · November 3, 2026
MAGA senator melts down when confronted about million-dollar promise: ‘Get him out’
A MAGA senator running for governor had a reporter escorted out of a campaign dinner after being pressed about a pricey old promise.Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL) told staffers "Get him out" on Tuesday night when a Lagniappe reporter asked about his 2020 pledge…
Raw Story · October 21, 2026
Tommy Tuberville Learns Alabama Governor Voting Results After CFB Coaching Career
Tommy Tuberville spent a long time as a college football head coach. These days, he’s well into his next act as a politician in the state of Alabama, but in 2026, he had a new goal. After spending time in Congress, Tuberville aimed to be the governor of Alaba…
Heavy.com · November 4, 2026
Republican Barry Moore Defeats Democrat Everett Wess in Alabama Senate Race
Trump-endorsed Rep. Barry Moore (R-AL) won Alabama's U.S. Senate race Tuesday, defeating Democrat Everett Wess, a criminal defense attorney, to succeed outgoing Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL). The post Republican Barry Moore Defeats Democrat Everett Wess in Ala…
Breitbart News · November 4, 2026
Senator Tommy Tuberville Wins Governor’s Seat in Alabama
Senator Tommy Tuberville won the governor's seat in Alabama on Tuesday night. The post Senator Tommy Tuberville Wins Governor’s Seat in Alabama appeared first on The Gateway Pundit.
Thegatewaypundit.com · November 4, 2026