Democratic
Phil Weiser
Major-party general-election nominee.
← all governor races
Phil Weiser vs. Victor Marx: Colorado governor election, 2026
Phil Weiser vs. Victor Marx. Incumbent term-limited. Democratic hold..
VotePredictor forecast (our model)
Phil Weiser favored
Safe D
99%
chance to win
D+18.4
predicted margin
Poll-driven model · 5 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology → · Today's article: every poll and forecast →
Republican
Victor Marx
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Greg Lopez · Independent
- Eric Mulder · Libertarian
- Stephen Hamilton · American Constitution
- Erik Underwood · Approval Voting
- Jeff Peckman · Unity
Polls
The polls behind it
5 polls · newest firstEach pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain). VotePredictor adjusted (“Our adj.” on small screens) is not a poll: it is our correction of that poll, for its pollster's record in past elections and for registered-voter or all-adult samples. It is the number our forecast reads.
PollsterDateSampleMarginOur adj.VotePredictor adjusted
Other forecasts
VotePredictor (ours)
D 99%
a probability from our model
Cook
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Oct. 29, 2026
DDHQ
Likely D≈ D 90%
as of Nov. 3, 2026
Fox
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Nov. 1, 2026
IE
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Oct. 29, 2026
NBC
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Nov. 3, 2026
RCP
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Nov. 1, 2026
Sabato
Safe D≈ D 99%
as of Nov. 2, 2026
Silver
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Nov. 3, 2026
The source we collect records each outlet's rating category, not a probability; some of these outlets run models with their own numbers on their sites. The ≈ figure is the standard conversion of the category (Toss-up 50%, Tilt 60%, Lean 75%, Likely 90%, Solid 99%), the one our scorecard grades them on, not a number they published. They remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Independent models
Win probabilities published by independent statistical models, shown with credit as their terms allow: Who Shows Up (whoshowsup.net), by Kurt Wirth. These are their numbers, not ratings converted by us, and not VotePredictor's. The better-known model forecasters (Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Silver Bulletin, the Economist) don't permit republishing their probabilities, so they appear above by rating only.
Past results
Every Colorado election for governor we hold a result for.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
JACKSON THOMPSON: Colorado Gov-elect Phil Weiser signals possible changes to girls' sports ballot measure
Colorado Democratic Gov.-elect Phil Weiser signaled possible legislative changes to Proposition 134, the girls sports measure leading in early returns.
Fox News · November 5, 2026
Colorado sues Trump administration to block new ICE detention center
Colorado Attorney General Phil Weiser on Tuesday joined the flurry of lawsuits challenging the Trump administration’s plan to open a nearly 1,200-bed immigrant detention center northeast of Denver.
The Denver Post · September 29, 2026
'LAWLESS and DANGEROUS': Colorado AG rips Trump over threat to mail-in voting
Colorado Attorney General –and Democratic gubernatorial nominee– Phil Weiser joins Morning Joe to discuss mail-in voting and ...
Biztoc.com · September 2, 2026
$17B Meta settlement puts focus on youth mental health crisis, Colorado AG says
Meta agreed to pay up to $17 billion in a settlement, putting to rest a trial where dozens of states accused it of deliberately endangering children through their platforms. The company behind Facebook and Instagram agreed to implement digital guardrails for …
PBS · August 26, 2026
Colorado AG calls notification limits most important part of Meta settlement
NPR's Adrian Florido talks with Colorado Attorney General Phil Weiser about the states' settlement with Meta over children's safety and their apps.
NPR · August 26, 2026
Democrat Philip Weiser Elected as Colorado Governor
Democrat Philip Weiser won Colorado’s gubernatorial election Tuesday and will follow two-term Gov. Jared Polis (D) as the state’s chief executive. Weiser, the state's Attorney General, defeated Republican nominee Victor Marx and former congressman Greg Lopez,…
Breitbart News · November 4, 2026
Victor Marx, an unorthodox candidate, aims to harness AI and bring more accountability to the state as governor
Republican Victor Marx, if he wins the race for Colorado governor, says he's bring accountability to state government as a conservative. But how he'd govern is less clear, given a murky campaign.
The Denver Post · October 11, 2026
El-Sayed Whacks Rogers For Cour': GOP Gov Candidate Does NOT Regret Pus: GOP Gov Candidate Does
Late last month, The Daily Beast released a deeply disturbing report revealing that Colorado gubernatorial candidate Victor Marx spoke with a podcast host in 2021 and expressed disappointment that his wife had stopped combat training. He told the host his wif…
Crooksandliars.com · October 9, 2026