Democratic
Keisha Lance Bottoms
Major-party general-election nominee.
← all governor races
Keisha Lance Bottoms vs. Rick Jackson: Georgia governor election, 2026
Keisha Lance Bottoms vs. Rick Jackson. Incumbent term-limited. Democratic gain..
VotePredictor forecast (our model)
Rick Jackson favored
Lean R
73%
chance to win
R+2.4
predicted margin
Poll-driven model · 13 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology → · Today's article: every poll and forecast →
Republican
Rick Jackson
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
The polls behind it
21 polls · 13 in today's forecast · newest firstDimmed polls are more than 61 days old. They stay on the record, but today's forecast no longer counts them. Each pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain). VotePredictor adjusted (“Our adj.” on small screens) is not a poll: it is our correction of that poll, for its pollster's record in past elections and for registered-voter or all-adult samples. It is the number our forecast reads.
PollsterDateSampleMarginOur adj.VotePredictor adjusted
Other forecasts
VotePredictor (ours)
R 73%
a probability from our model
Cook
Tossup≈ 50%
as of Oct. 29, 2026
DDHQ
Lean D (flip)≈ D 75%
as of Nov. 3, 2026
Fox
Tossup≈ 50%
as of Nov. 1, 2026
IE
Tilt D (flip)≈ D 60%
as of Oct. 29, 2026
NBC
Tossup≈ 50%
as of Nov. 3, 2026
RCP
Tossup≈ 50%
as of Nov. 1, 2026
Sabato
Lean D (flip)≈ D 75%
as of Nov. 2, 2026
Silver
Lean D (flip)≈ D 75%
as of Nov. 3, 2026
The source we collect records each outlet's rating category, not a probability; some of these outlets run models with their own numbers on their sites. The ≈ figure is the standard conversion of the category (Toss-up 50%, Tilt 60%, Lean 75%, Likely 90%, Solid 99%), the one our scorecard grades them on, not a number they published. They remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Independent models
Win probabilities published by independent statistical models, shown with credit as their terms allow: Who Shows Up (whoshowsup.net), by Kurt Wirth. These are their numbers, not ratings converted by us, and not VotePredictor's. The better-known model forecasters (Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Silver Bulletin, the Economist) don't permit republishing their probabilities, so they appear above by rating only.
Past results
Every Georgia election for governor we hold a result for.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Georgia Gov.-elect Bottoms reflects on historic victory and the path forward for Democrats
Georgia voters made history this week, electing Keisha Lance Bottoms as the state's first Democratic senator in more than two decades and the first-ever Black woman governor in the country. The former Atlanta mayor campaigned on lowering costs, expanding heal…
Biztoc.com · Yesterday
Georgia Gov.-elect Bottoms reflects on historic victory and the path forward for Democrats
Georgia voters made history this week, electing Keisha Lance Bottoms as the state's first Democratic senator in more than two decades and the first-ever Black woman governor in the country. The former Atlanta mayor campaigned on lowering costs, expanding heal…
PBS · Yesterday
Tyler Perry Joins Keisha Lance Bottoms’ Georgia Transition Team Despite Director’s Sexual Assault Lawsuits
On Tuesday night, Keisha Lance Bottoms won the 2026 Georgia gubernatorial election, making history as the first Black woman to be elected governor of any U.S. state and Georgia’s first Black governor. One of the first moves made by Bottoms, who’d previously s…
Variety · Yesterday
Georgia Gov.-elect Keisha Lance Bottoms stands on the shoulders of Stacey Abrams, Charlotta Bass and countless other Black women who dreamed
For generations, Black women have been asked to save a democracy that would not save them, carrying entire movements on their backs. Now a Black woman has been elected to govern Georgia.
The Conversation Africa · Yesterday
These Black Greek Members Won Big During Midterm Sweep
From the yard to the ballot box, Tuesday’s midterm elections prove that the Divine Nine’s influence reaches far beyond Greek life. Long before election night, our fraternities and sororities were building leaders, mobilizing communities and creating pathways …
The Root · Yesterday
How HBCU Grads Made Their Mark on the 2026 Midterms
While Democrats are celebrating big wins following a historic blue wave in the midterms, many of our historically Black colleges and universities (HBCUs) also have plenty to celebrate. From Keisha Lance Bottoms in Georgia to Donna Miller in Illinois, more tha…
The Root · Yesterday
How The Oligarchs Lost in the Midterms
If you want to know who the biggest midterms loser is, that is, of course, Donald Trump. But the second-biggest loser is the oligarchy.Democrats aren’t strangers to the oligarchy, especially in Silicon Valley, but lately even tech billionaires heavily favor R…
The New Republic · Yesterday
Ballot box uprising reveals 'thorny issue' likely to aggravate GOP for years: experts
As Democrats dominated the midterms Tuesday, data centers failed at the ballot box — an issue experts say will persist for future elections.Across the U.S., bans or restrictions on constructing data centers that were on the ballot nearly all passed .“I hones…
Raw Story · November 5, 2026