Democratic
Hannah Pingree
Major-party general-election nominee.
← all governor races
Hannah Pingree vs. Bobby Charles: Maine governor election, 2026
Hannah Pingree vs. Bobby Charles. Incumbent term-limited. Democratic hold..
VotePredictor forecast (our model)
Hannah Pingree favored
Safe D
99%
chance to win
D+10.9
predicted margin
Poll-driven model · 23 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology → · Today's article: every poll and forecast →
Republican
Bobby Charles
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Rick Bennett · Independent
Polls
The polls behind it
28 polls · 23 in today's forecast · newest firstDimmed polls are more than 61 days old. They stay on the record, but today's forecast no longer counts them. Each pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain). VotePredictor adjusted (“Our adj.” on small screens) is not a poll: it is our correction of that poll, for its pollster's record in past elections and for registered-voter or all-adult samples. It is the number our forecast reads.
PollsterDateSampleMarginOur adj.VotePredictor adjusted
The Washington Post/George Mason University School of Policy and Government10-052026-10-05D+13.0D+12.3
Other forecasts
VotePredictor (ours)
D 99%
a probability from our model
Cook
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Oct. 29, 2026
DDHQ
Likely D≈ D 90%
as of Nov. 3, 2026
Fox
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Nov. 1, 2026
IE
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Oct. 29, 2026
NBC
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Nov. 3, 2026
RCP
Likely D≈ D 90%
as of Nov. 1, 2026
Sabato
Likely D≈ D 90%
as of Nov. 2, 2026
Silver
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Nov. 3, 2026
The source we collect records each outlet's rating category, not a probability; some of these outlets run models with their own numbers on their sites. The ≈ figure is the standard conversion of the category (Toss-up 50%, Tilt 60%, Lean 75%, Likely 90%, Solid 99%), the one our scorecard grades them on, not a number they published. They remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Independent models
Win probabilities published by independent statistical models, shown with credit as their terms allow: Who Shows Up (whoshowsup.net), by Kurt Wirth. These are their numbers, not ratings converted by us, and not VotePredictor's. The better-known model forecasters (Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Silver Bulletin, the Economist) don't permit republishing their probabilities, so they appear above by rating only.
Past results
Every Maine election for governor we hold a result for.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Troy Jackson Has Edge in Maine Senate Race
A new AARP Maine poll in Maine finds Troy Jackson (D) leading Susan Collins (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 50% to 47%. Maine Senate Race Troy Jackson (D) 50% Susan Collins (R) 47% AARP Maine poll · likely voters The same poll in Maine finds Hannah Pingree (…
Politicalwire.com · October 1, 2026
'Atom bomb' drops in massive race as Republican's sister turns on him in surprise op-ed
Just two weeks after Maine gubernatorial candidate Bobby Charles drew national headlines with his comments about sending immigration agents to polling stations, the Republican’s sister publicly explained why she won’t be voting for him in November, calling ou…
Raw Story · September 9, 2026
'Atom Bomb Dropped' in Maine Gubernatorial Race as Bobby Charles' Sister Backs His Democratic Opponent
Just two weeks after Maine gubernatorial candidate Bobby Charles drew national headlines with his comments about sending immigration agents to polling stations, the Republican's sister publicly explained why she won't be voting for him in November, calling ou…
Common Dreams · September 9, 2026
'I'm Going to Ask Tom': Maine GOP Nominee for Governor Calls for ICE at Polling Stations
By letting attendees at a Maine Young Republicans event in on his "secret" plan for the midterm elections, the state's Republican nominee for governor detailed a proposal that, according to one public policy think tank, is wholly illegal. In an audio clip rel…
Common Dreams · August 27, 2026
'We Must Pass Medicare for All,' Says Troy Jackson as 12th Maine Maternity Unit Closes in 11 Years
Democratic US Senate candidate Troy Jackson on Friday was among the Maine leaders expressing anger over the decision by MaineHealth, the state's largest nonprofit healthcare system, to close a labor and delivery unit that's crucial to families in three counti…
Common Dreams · August 7, 2026
Transcript: Trump Shivs Vance as MAGA Crackup over Losses Gets Vicious
The following is a lightly edited transcript of the November 5 episode of the Daily Blast podcast. Listen to it here.Greg Sargent: This is The Daily Blast from The New Republic, produced and presented by the DSR Network. I’m your host, Greg Sargent.The epic c…
The New Republic · Yesterday
‘Trump will be gone in two years’: Defeated Maine MAGA candidate Bobby Charles turns against president after election loss
A Republican candidate who modelled his campaign on US President Donald Trump has distanced himself from the president following a crushing defeat in
The Times of India · November 4, 2026
GOP officials describe 'reckoning' to come after party's midterm losses
President Donald Trump's allies on Wednesday tiptoed their way toward once unthinkable territory: blaming the president.The unusual candor followed sweeping GOP defeats across the country, a repudiation of the president that matched some of the party's worst …
Yahoo Entertainment · November 4, 2026