Democratic
Jocelyn Benson
Major-party general-election nominee.
← all governor races
Jocelyn Benson vs. John James: Michigan governor election, 2026
Jocelyn Benson vs. John James. Incumbent term-limited. Democratic hold..
VotePredictor forecast (our model)
Jocelyn Benson favored
Safe D
99%
chance to win
D+9.0
predicted margin
Poll-driven model · 30 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology → · Today's article: every poll and forecast →
Republican
John James
Sitting U.S. Representative. Voting record and biography →
Other listed candidates
- Anthony Hudson · Libertarian
- Donna Brandenburg · U.S. Taxpayers
- Douglas Campbell · Green
Polls
The polls behind it
49 polls · 30 in today's forecast · newest firstDimmed polls are more than 61 days old. They stay on the record, but today's forecast no longer counts them. Each pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain). VotePredictor adjusted (“Our adj.” on small screens) is not a poll: it is our correction of that poll, for its pollster's record in past elections and for registered-voter or all-adult samples. It is the number our forecast reads.
PollsterDateSampleMarginOur adj.VotePredictor adjusted
Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research/YouGov10-192026-10-19D+12.4D+11.7
The Washington Post/George Mason University School of Policy and Government09-142026-09-14D+12.0D+11.3
Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research/YouGov08-202026-08-20D+9.0D+8.3
EPIC-MRAGrade A-07-312026-07-31D+9.0D+9.2
Other forecasts
VotePredictor (ours)
D 99%
a probability from our model
Cook
Lean D≈ D 75%
as of Oct. 29, 2026
DDHQ
Likely D≈ D 90%
as of Nov. 3, 2026
Fox
Lean D≈ D 75%
as of Nov. 1, 2026
IE
Lean D≈ D 75%
as of Oct. 29, 2026
NBC
Lean D≈ D 75%
as of Nov. 3, 2026
RCP
Lean D≈ D 75%
as of Nov. 1, 2026
Sabato
Likely D≈ D 90%
as of Nov. 2, 2026
Silver
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Nov. 3, 2026
The source we collect records each outlet's rating category, not a probability; some of these outlets run models with their own numbers on their sites. The ≈ figure is the standard conversion of the category (Toss-up 50%, Tilt 60%, Lean 75%, Likely 90%, Solid 99%), the one our scorecard grades them on, not a number they published. They remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Independent models
Win probabilities published by independent statistical models, shown with credit as their terms allow: Who Shows Up (whoshowsup.net), by Kurt Wirth. These are their numbers, not ratings converted by us, and not VotePredictor's. The better-known model forecasters (Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Silver Bulletin, the Economist) don't permit republishing their probabilities, so they appear above by rating only.
Past results
Every Michigan election for governor we hold a result for.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Michigan Governor Election 2026 Live Results: Jocelyn Benson Wins
Follow 2026 Michigan governor election results as voters decide which candidate will take over next term.
NBC News · Yesterday
Democrats Take Over Total Control in Four States With Trifecta Power
Democratic candidates flipped control of multiple state legislatures on Tuesday, clinching electoral trifectas in Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.It was a wildly successful night for Democratic candidates in Congress, but Americans also voted…
The New Republic · November 4, 2026
El-Sayed’s candidacy split Michigan Jews, and the community is reeling
A small majority of Jews in Michigan backed the Democratic Party’s winning candidate, Abdul El-Sayed, over Republican Mike Rogers in Tuesday’s Senate race*** El-Sayed has been one of the most outspoken critics of Israel this election season, with eliminating …
Freerepublic.com · November 4, 2026
Who won in Michigan election? Check results of Senate, Governor and House races
In Michigan's 2026 elections, the Democratic party celebrated key wins, highlighted by Abdul El-Sayed's triumph in the Senate race. A former public health official, El-Sayed champions universal healthcare and aims to limit external influences in politics. Joc…
The Times of India · November 4, 2026
Who won Governor of Michigan race? Meet Democrat Jocelyn Benson and her $60000 promise for teachers
The Associated Press projects that Democrat Jocelyn Benson has won Michigan’s governor’s race. The longtime secretary of state built her campaign around making everyday life more affordable. Here's what she promised people of Michigan.
The Times of India · November 4, 2026
Kamala Harris Has Her Eye on Today’s Gubernatorial Races
Politics / November 3, 2026 Kamala Harris Has Her Eye on Today’s Gubernatorial Races The former vice president reminds The Nation that, even if government is divided in DC, “a governor, as the chief executive of a state, can actually make thi…
Thenation.com · November 3, 2026
Democrats Maintain Leads in Michigan
A new YouGov poll in Michigan finds Abdul El-Sayed (D) leading Mike Rogers (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 51% to 47%. Michigan Senate Race Abdul El-Sayed (D) 51% Mike Rogers (R) 47% YouGov poll · likely voters The same poll in Michigan finds Jocelyn Benson …
Politicalwire.com · November 1, 2026
Trump-backed Bouchard faces a tight race in Michigan’s open 10th District
Michigan MI-10 election 2026: Michigan’s 10th Congressional District is an open-seat race between Republican Michael Bouchard and Democrat Christina Hines after incumbent John James left to run for governor. The Republican-leaning seat remains competitive bec…
The Times of India · October 28, 2026