Democratic
Deb Haaland
Major-party general-election nominee.
← all governor races
Deb Haaland vs. Gregg Hull: New Mexico governor election, 2026
Deb Haaland vs. Gregg Hull. Incumbent term-limited. Democratic hold..
VotePredictor forecast (our model)
Deb Haaland favored
Likely D
92%
chance to win
D+5.3
predicted margin
Poll-driven model · 3 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology → · Today's article: every poll and forecast →
Republican
Gregg Hull
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
The polls behind it
6 polls · 3 in today's forecast · newest firstDimmed polls are more than 61 days old. They stay on the record, but today's forecast no longer counts them. Each pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain). VotePredictor adjusted (“Our adj.” on small screens) is not a poll: it is our correction of that poll, for its pollster's record in past elections and for registered-voter or all-adult samples. It is the number our forecast reads.
PollsterDateSampleMarginOur adj.VotePredictor adjusted
Other forecasts
VotePredictor (ours)
D 92%
a probability from our model
Cook
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Oct. 29, 2026
DDHQ
Likely D≈ D 90%
as of Nov. 3, 2026
Fox
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Nov. 1, 2026
IE
Likely D≈ D 90%
as of Oct. 29, 2026
NBC
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Nov. 3, 2026
RCP
Lean D≈ D 75%
as of Nov. 1, 2026
Sabato
Safe D≈ D 99%
as of Nov. 2, 2026
Silver
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Nov. 3, 2026
The source we collect records each outlet's rating category, not a probability; some of these outlets run models with their own numbers on their sites. The ≈ figure is the standard conversion of the category (Toss-up 50%, Tilt 60%, Lean 75%, Likely 90%, Solid 99%), the one our scorecard grades them on, not a number they published. They remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Independent models
Win probabilities published by independent statistical models, shown with credit as their terms allow: Who Shows Up (whoshowsup.net), by Kurt Wirth. These are their numbers, not ratings converted by us, and not VotePredictor's. The better-known model forecasters (Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Silver Bulletin, the Economist) don't permit republishing their probabilities, so they appear above by rating only.
Past results
Every New Mexico election for governor we hold a result for.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Trump official who wants data centers on public lands has tens of millions in AI
The Trump administration has likened the need to build out the nation’s artificial intelligence infrastructure to the Manhattan Project, the World War II effort that produced the world’s first atomic bomb.The White House’s point person on the effort, Interior…
Raw Story · Yesterday
Amy Acton’s Victory Is One for All Survivors
Tuesday night brought historic victories for women: In New Mexico, Deb Haaland became the nation’s first Native American woman elected governor. In Georgia, Keisha Lance Bottoms became the first Black woman elected governor in U.S. history, winning in Georgia…
Ms. Magazine · November 5, 2026
Why Diverse Leadership Makes America Strong
November’s historic barrier-breakers didn’t win because identity replaced qualifications; they won because voters believed they could deliver. But the real lesson of this election goes beyond proving diversity isn’t the enemy of merit. When our leaders reflec…
The Root · November 5, 2026
Well Done, America
Well that was a night. The glad spectacle of a newly sentient America tottering back to its capacious ideals was dubbed Orange Crush, Bluenami, a political earthquake, a wily tweak to Hegseth's coveted public execution and "one of the great acts of defiance i…
Common Dreams · November 5, 2026
2 Native American women make history in 2026 midterm elections - CBS News
2 Native American women make history in 2026 midterm electionsCBS News New Mexico's Deb Haaland on making history as first Native American woman elected governorPBS The day after: Haaland discusses objectives as governor-electKOB 4 Haaland and Flanagan, Two N…
Slashdot.org · November 5, 2026
How Deb Haaland won New Mexico to become first Native American woman governor
Yes. Deb Haaland was elected governor of New Mexico on Tuesday, Nov. 3, becoming the first Native American woman ever elected to lead a U.S. state. The Democrat and former interior secretary beat Republican Gregg Hull with about 57.2% of the vote in unofficia…
Rolling Out · November 4, 2026
Democrat Deb Haaland Wins New Mexico Governor’s Race
Former Biden-era Interior Secretary Deb Haaland was elected Governor of New Mexico on Tuesday, defeating Republican Gregg Hull in the southwestern state. The post Democrat Deb Haaland Wins New Mexico Governor’s Race appeared first on Breitbart.
Breitbart News · November 4, 2026
Midterms may bring in wave of historic firsts across U.S.
Featuring one of the most diverse slates of both Democratic and Republican candidates in recent years, this midterm election has set up a possible wave of historic leadership firsts across the country. Voters on Tuesday could propel into office the first Na…
Yahoo Entertainment · November 3, 2026