Aaron Ford vs. Joe Lombardo: Nevada governor election, 2026

Aaron Ford vs. Joe Lombardo. Incumbent lost re-election. Democratic gain..

VotePredictor forecast (our model)

Joe Lombardo favored

Toss-up

52%

chance to win

R+0.2

predicted margin

Poll-driven model · 7 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology → · Today's article: every poll and forecast →

Democratic

Aaron Ford

Major-party general-election nominee.

Republican

Joe Lombardo

Major-party general-election nominee.

Other listed candidates

Danielle Ford · Independent

Polls

The polls behind it

14 polls · 7 in today's forecast · newest first

Dimmed polls are more than 61 days old. They stay on the record, but today's forecast no longer counts them. Each pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain). VotePredictor adjusted (“Our adj.” on small screens) is not a poll: it is our correction of that poll, for its pollster's record in past elections and for registered-voter or all-adult samples. It is the number our forecast reads.

PollsterDateMarginOur adj.

Noble Predictive Insights (via Wikipedia)10-28EVENR+1.5

Hart Research Associates10-25D+4.0D+3.1

RedBox Research (via Wikipedia)10-23D+3.0D+2.3

Global Strategy Group (via Wikipedia)Grade C10-13R+1.0R+5.3

Concord Public Opinion Partners (via Wikipedia)09-30R+1.0R+1.1

Noble Predictive Insights09-26R+1.0R+3.9

Emerson CollegeGrade A-09-08D+2.2D+1.7

Tarrance Group (via Wikipedia)Grade B+07-29R+7.0R+6.2

Public Policy Polling (via Wikipedia)Grade A-07-16EVENR+0.8

Grassroots Targeting (via Wikipedia)07-06R+12.0R+12.7

Public Opinion Strategies (via Wikipedia)Grade C06-29R+9.0R+6.6

Global Strategy Group (via Wikipedia)Grade C05-11R+3.0R+7.3

Noble Predictive Insights03-13R+1.0R+2.5

Hart Research Associates02-17R+3.0R+3.9

Other forecasts

VotePredictor (ours)

R 52%

a probability from our model

Cook

Tossup≈ 50%

as of Oct. 29, 2026

DDHQ

Tossup≈ 50%

as of Nov. 3, 2026

Fox

Tossup≈ 50%

as of Nov. 1, 2026

Tossup≈ 50%

as of Oct. 29, 2026

NBC

Tossup≈ 50%

as of Nov. 3, 2026

RCP

Tossup≈ 50%

as of Nov. 1, 2026

Sabato

Lean D (flip)≈ D 75%

as of Nov. 2, 2026

Silver

Tossup≈ 50%

as of Nov. 3, 2026

The source we collect records each outlet's rating category, not a probability; some of these outlets run models with their own numbers on their sites. The ≈ figure is the standard conversion of the category (Toss-up 50%, Tilt 60%, Lean 75%, Likely 90%, Solid 99%), the one our scorecard grades them on, not a number they published. They remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗

Independent models

Who Shows Up · independent model ↗

R 50%EVEN

as of 2026-11-03

Win probabilities published by independent statistical models, shown with credit as their terms allow: Who Shows Up (whoshowsup.net), by Kurt Wirth. These are their numbers, not ratings converted by us, and not VotePredictor's. The better-known model forecasters (Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Silver Bulletin, the Economist) don't permit republishing their probabilities, so they appear above by rating only.

Past results

Every Nevada election for governor we hold a result for.

YearWinnerMargin

2022Joe Lombardo(R)R+1.5

2018Steve Sisolak(D)D+4.1

2014Brian E. Sandoval(R)R+46.7

2010Brian E. Sandoval(R)R+11.8

2006Jim Gibbons(R)R+4.0

2002Kenny Guinn(R)R+46.2

1998Kenny Guinn(R)R+9.6

Candidate news

Democrat Aaron Ford beats GOP incumbent in Nevada governor's race

GOP Gov. Joe Lombardo struggled in Nevada as the economy struggled because of tariffs and a decline in tourism.

CBS News · Yesterday

Why Black Governors Should Follow Wes Moore’s Lead on Education

On Nov. 3, Democrats had historic wins in governors’ races around the country. And because no president has the authority to veto a governor’s state budget, every new Democratic governor is a rare opportunity for students of color. Governors propose budgets a…

The Root · Yesterday

Why Diverse Leadership Makes America Strong

November’s historic barrier-breakers didn’t win because identity replaced qualifications; they won because voters believed they could deliver. But the real lesson of this election goes beyond proving diversity isn’t the enemy of merit. When our leaders reflec…

The Root · Yesterday

Nevada Governor Election 2026 Live Results: Aaron Ford Wins

Follow 2026 Nevada governor election results as voters decide which candidate will take over next term.

NBC News · Yesterday

Democrat Aaron Ford Unseats Republican Nevada Gov. Joe Lombardo

The Democrat attorney general of Nevada, Aaron Ford, has unseated incumbent Nevada Gov. Joe Lombardo (R) after just one term in office. The post Democrat Aaron Ford Unseats Republican Nevada Gov. Joe Lombardo appeared first on Breitbart.

Breitbart News · Yesterday

Five New Democrat State Trifectas: Assisted Suicide, Here We Come

The national elections, just completed, added five states that will be completely controlled by Democrats next year, i.e., legislature and governor. They are, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Every one of these is ripe for legalizing …

Freerepublic.com · Today

From Georgia to Michigan, midterm voters deliver a series of historic firsts

The results of the 2026 midterm elections have delivered a series of historic wins, with candidates across the country breaking barriers — and glass ceilings — at the ballot box. The results come amid a sweeping Democratic victory in a battle for control …

Yahoo Entertainment · November 4, 2026

Nevada Democrat Aaron Ford to become state’s first Black governor

Nevada’s Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford has won the race for governor, ousting Republican incumbent Joe Lombardo and becoming the state’s first Black governor.

WDSU New Orleans · November 4, 2026