Democratic
Aaron Ford
Major-party general-election nominee.
← all governor races
Nevada governor election, 2026
Aaron Ford vs. Joe Lombardo. Incumbent renominated.
VotePredictor forecast
Joe Lombardo favored
Toss-up · predicted margin R+1.5
57%
chance to win
Poll-driven model · 4 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology →
Republican
Joe Lombardo
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Christopher Battenberg · Independent
- Max Beck · Independent
- Danielle Ford · Independent
- Jordan Koteras · Independent
- Allen Rheinhart · Independent
- Emilio Rodriguez · Independent
- John Scott · Independent
- Gracie Vanburn · Independent
Polls
| Pollster | Date | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | 2026-09-08 | D+2.2 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2026-05-11 | R+3.0 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | 2026-03-13 | R+1.0 |
| Hart Research Associates | 2026-02-17 | R+3.0 |
Other forecasts
Cook
Tossup
as of Sep. 17, 2026
IE
Tilt R
as of Sep. 17., 2026
Sabato
Lean R
as of Sep. 3, 2026
RCP
Tossup
as of Sep. 17, 2026
Fox
Tossup
as of Sep. 22, 2026
Silver
Tossup
as of Sep. 17, 2026
DDHQ
Tossup
as of Sep. 17, 2026
Published ratings are categorical, not probabilities, and remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Past results
Every Nevada election for governor we hold a result for.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Another attempt to hold fake electors accountable falls apart in court
Nevada's yearslong criminal case against six Republicans accused of submitting a fake electoral certificate for President Trump was tossed out Thursday, marking the fourth such prosecution nationwide to fall apart.A judge dismissed the case against the group,…
Raw Story · August 14, 2026
Protecting Workers From AI Is Easier Said Than Done
Editor’s Note: Welcome to The TNR Blue Book. It’s our new daily newsletter that covers Congress and much more, but with a distinctly TNR twist: Our focus will be strictly on Democrats, liberal and progressive groups, and the fight to take back power and save …
The New Republic · August 7, 2026
Exclusive: Wes Moore Bets on Bi-Partisanship in a Divisive Age
Is bipartisanship a lost art, or have we simply grown too disillusioned with establishment leaders to recognize a bridge-builder when we see one? Near sacred ground in Oklahoma City — blocks from the site of the deadliest act of domestic terrorism on Ameri…
The Root · August 6, 2026
Nevada gubernatorial race shapes up as bellwether for GOP heading into 2028
Nevada’s primaries have resulted in a face-off between incumbent Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo and Democratic nominee Attorney General Aaron Ford.
Abcnews.com · June 10, 2026
Nevada Attorney General Wins Democratic Gubernatorial Primary
Aaron Ford, Nevada’s attorney general, has prevailed over a crowded field of Democrats to face off against first-term Governor Joe Lombardo, a Republican, in a race that will test voters’ willingness to back President Donald Trump’s economic agenda in the mid…
Financial Post · June 10, 2026
Nevada governor sets guardrails on data centers
Nevada Governor Joe Lombardo signed an executive order on Friday imposing guardrails on data centers, which will bar them from seeking new state tax breaks and require those receiving incentives to co...
Biztoc.com · September 18, 2026
Fast-growing wildfire threatens thousands of homes in Nevada
A fast-growing wildfire in Nevada has grown to 10,000 acres since it began burning just outside Reno on Saturday, officials said. The Hawk Fire remained uncontained as of Sunday and forced 14,000 homes to be evacuated. Gov. Joe Lombardo declared a state of em…
Biztoc.com · August 23, 2026
Nevada brush fire spreads to 10,500 acres as governor declares state of emergency
Nevada Gov. Joe Lombardo declared a state of emergency as the Hawk Fire exploded across 10,500 acres, threatening 1,000 homes outside of Reno.
Fox News · August 23, 2026