Democratic
Amy Acton
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Amy Acton vs. Vivek Ramaswamy: Ohio governor election, 2026
Amy Acton vs. Vivek Ramaswamy. Incumbent term-limited. Democratic gain..
VotePredictor forecast (our model)
Amy Acton favored
Lean D
70%
chance to win
D+2.0
predicted margin
Poll-driven model · 27 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology → · Today's article: every poll and forecast →
Republican
Vivek Ramaswamy
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Donald Kissick · Libertarian
Polls
The polls behind it
38 polls · 27 in today's forecast · newest firstDimmed polls are more than 61 days old. They stay on the record, but today's forecast no longer counts them. Each pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain). VotePredictor adjusted (“Our adj.” on small screens) is not a poll: it is our correction of that poll, for its pollster's record in past elections and for registered-voter or all-adult samples. It is the number our forecast reads.
PollsterDateSampleMarginOur adj.VotePredictor adjusted
Other forecasts
VotePredictor (ours)
D 70%
a probability from our model
Cook
Lean D (flip)≈ D 75%
as of Oct. 29, 2026
DDHQ
Lean D (flip)≈ D 75%
as of Nov. 3, 2026
Fox
Lean D (flip)≈ D 75%
as of Nov. 1, 2026
IE
Tilt D (flip)≈ D 60%
as of Oct. 29, 2026
NBC
Lean D (flip)≈ D 75%
as of Nov. 3, 2026
RCP
Tossup≈ 50%
as of Nov. 1, 2026
Sabato
Lean D (flip)≈ D 75%
as of Nov. 2, 2026
Silver
Likely D (flip)≈ D 90%
as of Nov. 3, 2026
The source we collect records each outlet's rating category, not a probability; some of these outlets run models with their own numbers on their sites. The ≈ figure is the standard conversion of the category (Toss-up 50%, Tilt 60%, Lean 75%, Likely 90%, Solid 99%), the one our scorecard grades them on, not a number they published. They remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Independent models
Win probabilities published by independent statistical models, shown with credit as their terms allow: Who Shows Up (whoshowsup.net), by Kurt Wirth. These are their numbers, not ratings converted by us, and not VotePredictor's. The better-known model forecasters (Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Silver Bulletin, the Economist) don't permit republishing their probabilities, so they appear above by rating only.
Past results
Every Ohio election for governor we hold a result for.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Amy Acton Responds After Vivek Ramaswamy's Concession Voicemail
Ohio Governor-elect Amy Acton said she has “no intention” to speak with Republican candidate Vivek Ramaswamy after her victory in the gubernatorial race on Tuesday, telling CBS News that an advertisement he ran featuring her estranged mother in the final week…
Biztoc.com · Yesterday
Commentary: An open letter to Governor-Elect Dr. Amy Acton on addressing LGBTQ+ health disparities
Ohio has elected a new governor. Now Equitas Health is calling on Amy Acton to prioritize HIV prevention\, address LGBTQ+ health disparities\, and ensure the people most affected have a voice in her administration.
Advocate.com · Yesterday
Amy Acton Perfectly Caps Off Her Historic Win
Dr. Amy Acton is washing her hands of Vivek Ramaswamy and his dirty campaign tactics.Ohio’s first female governor-elect told CBS Mornings Friday that she has “no intention” of speaking to the losing Republican after he produced a disturbing political advert f…
The New Republic · Yesterday
Defecting ex-Trump ‘Front Row Joe’ ticks off broken promises as he declares MAGA dead
A former superfan who traveled to dozens of President Donald Trump’s rallies says he’s done with the MAGA movement, and that Trump has “nobody to blame but himself” for Republicans’ midterm drubbing.Rick Frazier, an Ohio voter and an organizer of the “Front R…
Raw Story · Yesterday
Amy Acton calls Ramaswamy ad featuring estranged mother ‘terrible and despicable’, has ‘no intention’ of speaking to him
Ohio Governor-elect Amy Acton responds to her Republican opponent Vivek Ramaswamy's controversial campaign ad featuring her estranged mother, calling it 'terrible and despicable.'
The Times of India · Yesterday
Republicans turn against Vivek Ramaswamy as Ron DeSantis says he doesn't know why party backed him: 'He's a tech guy, Ohio is blue collar'
Outgoing Florida Governor Ron DeSantis nuked Vivek Ramaswamy following his defeat in the Ohio gubernatorial election, arguing that the Republican
The Times of India · Yesterday
How The Oligarchs Lost in the Midterms
If you want to know who the biggest midterms loser is, that is, of course, Donald Trump. But the second-biggest loser is the oligarchy.Democrats aren’t strangers to the oligarchy, especially in Silicon Valley, but lately even tech billionaires heavily favor R…
The New Republic · Yesterday
Report: Young White Ohio Voters Swung 55 Points to Democrats in 2 Years
Young white voters in Ohio swung roughly 55 points toward Democrats between the 2024 and 2026 elections, moving from backing President Donald Trump by 11 points to favoring Democrat Amy Acton over Republican Vivek Ramaswamy by 44 points, according to exit pol…
Breitbart News · November 5, 2026