Cyndi Munson vs. Mike Mazzei: Oklahoma governor election, 2026

Cyndi Munson vs. Mike Mazzei. Incumbent term-limited. Republican hold..

VotePredictor forecast (our model)

Mike Mazzei favored

Likely R

95%

chance to win

R+7.1

predicted margin

Poll-driven model · 3 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology → · Today's article: every poll and forecast →

Democratic

Cyndi Munson

Major-party general-election nominee.

Republican

Mike Mazzei

Major-party general-election nominee.

Other listed candidates

Robert Brooks Sr. · Independent
Jerry Griffin · Independent
Orlando Bush · Independent

Polls

The polls behind it

3 polls · newest first

Each pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain). VotePredictor adjusted (“Our adj.” on small screens) is not a poll: it is our correction of that poll, for its pollster's record in past elections and for registered-voter or all-adult samples. It is the number our forecast reads.

PollsterDateMarginOur adj.

Workbench Strategy (via Wikipedia)10-13R+4.0R+4.7

Cross Timbers Poll (via Wikipedia)10-12R+3.0R+3.7

Cross Timbers Poll (via Wikipedia)09-30R+4.0R+6.4

Other forecasts

VotePredictor (ours)

R 95%

a probability from our model

Cook

Likely R≈ R 90%

as of Oct. 29, 2026

DDHQ

Safe R≈ R 99%

as of Nov. 3, 2026

Fox

Solid R≈ R 99%

as of Nov. 1, 2026

Likely R≈ R 90%

as of Oct. 29, 2026

NBC

Likely R≈ R 90%

as of Nov. 3, 2026

RCP

Solid R≈ R 99%

as of Nov. 1, 2026

Sabato

Likely R≈ R 90%

as of Nov. 2, 2026

Silver

Likely R≈ R 90%

as of Nov. 3, 2026

The source we collect records each outlet's rating category, not a probability; some of these outlets run models with their own numbers on their sites. The ≈ figure is the standard conversion of the category (Toss-up 50%, Tilt 60%, Lean 75%, Likely 90%, Solid 99%), the one our scorecard grades them on, not a number they published. They remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗

Independent models

Who Shows Up · independent model ↗

R 99%R+18.3

as of 2026-11-03

Win probabilities published by independent statistical models, shown with credit as their terms allow: Who Shows Up (whoshowsup.net), by Kurt Wirth. These are their numbers, not ratings converted by us, and not VotePredictor's. The better-known model forecasters (Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Silver Bulletin, the Economist) don't permit republishing their probabilities, so they appear above by rating only.

Past results

Every Oklahoma election for governor we hold a result for.

YearWinnerMargin

2022Kevin Stitt(R)R+13.7

2018Kevin Stitt(R)R+12.1

2014Mary Fallin(R)R+14.8

2010Mary Fallin(R)R+20.9

2006Brad Henry(D)D+33.0

2002Brad Henry(D)D+0.7

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