Democratic
Jerri Green
Major-party general-election nominee.
← all governor races
Jerri Green vs. Marsha Blackburn: Tennessee governor election, 2026
Jerri Green vs. Marsha Blackburn. Incumbent term-limited. Republican hold..
VotePredictor forecast (our model)
Marsha Blackburn favored
Safe R
99%
chance to win
R+18.6
predicted margin
Poll-driven model · 4 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology → · Today's article: every poll and forecast →
Republican
Marsha Blackburn
Sitting U.S. Senator. Voting record and biography →
Other listed candidates
- David Hatley · Independent
- Lauren Pinkston · Independent
- Dean Brewer · Independent
- Ray Brown · Independent
- Wendell Jackson · Independent
- Eddie Lee Murphy · Independent
- Robert Vick · Independent
- Misam Abidi · Independent
- Charles Van Morgan · Independent
- L. Webb Taylor · Independent
- Dave Seeman · Independent
- Victor Scoggin · Independent
- Karl Smithson · Independent
Polls
The polls behind it
6 polls · 4 in today's forecast · newest firstDimmed polls are more than 61 days old. They stay on the record, but today's forecast no longer counts them. Each pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain). VotePredictor adjusted (“Our adj.” on small screens) is not a poll: it is our correction of that poll, for its pollster's record in past elections and for registered-voter or all-adult samples. It is the number our forecast reads.
PollsterDateSampleMarginOur adj.VotePredictor adjusted
Other forecasts
VotePredictor (ours)
R 99%
a probability from our model
Cook
Solid R≈ R 99%
as of Oct. 29, 2026
DDHQ
Likely R≈ R 90%
as of Nov. 3, 2026
Fox
Solid R≈ R 99%
as of Nov. 1, 2026
IE
Likely R≈ R 90%
as of Oct. 29, 2026
NBC
Solid R≈ R 99%
as of Nov. 3, 2026
RCP
Solid R≈ R 99%
as of Nov. 1, 2026
Sabato
Safe R≈ R 99%
as of Nov. 2, 2026
Silver
Solid R≈ R 99%
as of Nov. 3, 2026
The source we collect records each outlet's rating category, not a probability; some of these outlets run models with their own numbers on their sites. The ≈ figure is the standard conversion of the category (Toss-up 50%, Tilt 60%, Lean 75%, Likely 90%, Solid 99%), the one our scorecard grades them on, not a number they published. They remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Independent models
Win probabilities published by independent statistical models, shown with credit as their terms allow: Who Shows Up (whoshowsup.net), by Kurt Wirth. These are their numbers, not ratings converted by us, and not VotePredictor's. The better-known model forecasters (Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Silver Bulletin, the Economist) don't permit republishing their probabilities, so they appear above by rating only.
Past results
Every Tennessee election for governor we hold a result for.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Marsha Blackburn Senate Exit—List of Republicans Most Likely To Replace Her
With Republican U.S. Senator Marsha Blackburn set to become Tennessee’s governor in January, speculation is already mounting over who could be appointed to her Senate seat. Blackburn defeated her Democratic challenger Jerri Green with 45.5 percent of the vote…
Biztoc.com · Today
From Georgia to Michigan, midterm voters deliver a series of historic firsts
The results of the 2026 midterm elections have delivered a series of historic wins, with candidates across the country breaking barriers — and glass ceilings — at the ballot box. The results come amid a sweeping Democratic victory in a battle for control …
Yahoo Entertainment · November 4, 2026
Marsha Blackburn Becomes First Woman Elected Governor of Tennessee
Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) has won Tennessee's governor's race against Memphis Councilwoman Jerri Green (D). The post Marsha Blackburn Becomes First Woman Elected Governor of Tennessee appeared first on Breitbart.
Breitbart News · November 4, 2026
Midterms may bring in wave of historic firsts across U.S.
Featuring one of the most diverse slates of both Democratic and Republican candidates in recent years, this midterm election has set up a possible wave of historic leadership firsts across the country. Voters on Tuesday could propel into office the first Na…
Yahoo Entertainment · November 3, 2026
Dolly Parton's sister joins freakout as voters say machines 'flipped' votes to Republicans
From a Nashville library to Texas, early voters, including Dolly Parton’s sister, say voting machines kept swapping their Democratic picks for Republicans, and the claims are spreading across social media.Stella Parton, the younger sister of the late country …
Raw Story · October 22, 2026
Humiliation for Pete Hegseth as Governor-elect shoots down plan to parachute embattled Pentagon chief into Tennessee Senate seat
Embattled Secretary of War Pete Hegseth has been humiliated after Tennessee governor-elect Marsha Blackburn reportedly snubbed the Pentagon boss.
Dailymail.com · Today
Republicans turn against Pete Hegseth after significant midterms losses
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is facing intense political backlash over the United States’ costly and unpopular war with Iran following the historic drubbing Republicans took from Democrats in this week’s midterm elections. But President Trump insisted on …
Yahoo Entertainment · Yesterday
Why Diverse Leadership Makes America Strong
November’s historic barrier-breakers didn’t win because identity replaced qualifications; they won because voters believed they could deliver. But the real lesson of this election goes beyond proving diversity isn’t the enemy of merit. When our leaders reflec…
The Root · Yesterday