Democratic
Dwayne Romero
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Colorado District 3 election, 2026
Dwayne Romero vs. Jeff Hurd. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Jeff Hurd favored
Lean R · predicted margin R+2.4
67%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+10.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
2, averaging EVENForecast spread
±5.3 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). The 2 district polls are blended in by inverse variance, about 54% of the weight: the model alone said R+5.2.
Republican
Jeff Hurd
Incumbent representative for CO-3. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Other listed candidates
- Clifton Brown · Independent
- Cory Robertson · Libertarian
Polls
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstEach pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain).
PollsterDateSampleMargin
These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 54% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Jeff HurdREP · incumbent$4.2M raised
Spent $3.9MCash on hand $238k2% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$494k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$196k
- Legal & Professional Services$110k
- Homemaker$97k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$91k
States
- CO$1.3M
- CA$107k
- NY$97k
- TX$91k
- FL$66k
Dwayne RomeroDEM$1.7M raised
Spent $1.5MCash on hand $196kDebts $460k12% from donors under $200Self-funded $460k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
- ROMERO, DWAYNE$350k
- SEYBOLD, JOHN$10k
- WOODS, FRANK$9k
- BONE, RANDALL$8k
- SHERMAN, ANTHONY$7k
Industries
- Unemployed$371k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$85k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$53k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$17k
- Technology & Communications$14k
States
- CO$562k
- NY$75k
- CA$69k
- VA$28k
- TX$25k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for CO-3; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Colorado's 3rd district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
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President Donald Trump's unusual midterm convention in Texas next week will be missing a substantial number of GOP lawmakers, who admit they have better things to do.In interviews with Politico, over 45 GOP members of Congress begged off, saying they need to …
Raw Story · September 2, 2026
Trump’s Plan to Sell F-35s to Turkey Becomes an Even Greater Disaster
President Trump said in a meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Tuesday that he plans to lift sanctions to allow the country to buy F-35 fighter jets. “We’re going to be taking the sanctions off, OK? I don’t want him to waste his time answering …
The New Republic · July 7, 2026
Trump-backed incumbent survives right-wing primary challenge after endorsement drama in Colorado
Rep. Jeff Hurd defeated Ron Hanks in Colorado's GOP primary after Trump re-issued his endorsement, setting up a competitive November midterm race.
Fox News · July 1, 2026
Morning Digest: Trump issues his most bizarre endorsement yet (David Nir/The Downballot)
David Nir / The Downballot: Morning Digest: Trump issues his most bizarre endorsement yet — Leading Off — Donald Trump executed a bizarre reverse-reversal on Friday when he re-endorsed Rep. Jeff Hurd just four weeks after urging primary voters to deny the…
Memeorandum.com · March 23, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗