Iowa District 2 election, 2026

Lindsay James vs. Joe Mitchell.

VotePredictor forecast

Joe Mitchell favored

Likely R · predicted margin R+10.0

93%

chance to win

2024 presidential lean

R+8.5

2026 national environment

D+6.3

Model uncertainty

±6.9 points

Fundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.

Democratic

Lindsay James

Major-party general-election nominee.

Republican

Joe Mitchell

Major-party general-election nominee.

Other listed candidates

Dave Bushaw · Independent
Rick Stewart · Libertarian

Polls

The polls behind it

1 poll · newest first

PollsterDateMargin

Global Strategy Group2026-07-19D+1.0

Shown for context. The forecast above is fundamentals-only and does not use these polls: tested against 2016–2024, a poll-driven rule beat fundamentals only because of a single wave cycle and reversed without it. See methodology.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for IA-2; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Cook Political Report

View House ratings ↗

Inside Elections

View House ratings ↗

Sabato's Crystal Ball

View House analysis ↗

Past results

Every election in Iowa's 2nd district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.

YearWinnerMargin

2024Ashley Hinson(R)R+15.6

2020Mariannette Miller-Meeks(R)EVEN

2018Dave Loebsack(D)D+12.2

2014Dave Loebsack(D)D+5.1

2010Dave Loebsack(D)D+5.1

2006Dave Loebsack(D)D+2.9

Candidate news

No recent verified candidate stories are available in the site's news feed for this race yet.

Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗

Nearby in the directory: IA-1 · IA-3