VotePredictor
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Iowa District 2 election, 2026

Lindsay James vs. Joe Mitchell. Today's article: every forecast for this race →

VotePredictor forecast
Lindsay James favored
Toss-up · predicted margin D+0.1
51%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+10.0
2026 national environment
D+8.0
District polls
3, averaging D+2.3
Forecast spread
±5.3 points

Margin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (open seat: none). The 3 district polls are blended in by inverse variance, about 54% of the weight: the model alone said R+2.5.

Democratic

Lindsay James

Major-party general-election nominee.

Republican

Joe Mitchell

Major-party general-election nominee.

Other listed candidates

  • Rick Stewart · Libertarian
  • Dave Bushaw · Independent

Polls

The polls behind it

3 polls · newest first

Each pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain).

PollsterDateMargin
Emerson CollegeGrade A-10-14D+3.0
Global Strategy GroupGrade C07-19D+1.0
Public Policy Polling (via Wikipedia)Grade A-04-14D+3.0

These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 54% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.

Campaign money

FEC reports through October 14, 2026
Lindsay JamesDEM$3.9M raised
Spent $3.7MCash on hand $266k14% from donors under $200Self-funded $120
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. IMPOSSIBLE TO INEVITABLE$21k
  2. LORD, HENRY D.$10k
  3. HAMEL, LORILEE$8k
  4. WARD, BOB$8k
  5. ALSOP, JOSEPH$7k

Industries

  1. Unemployed$799k
  2. Retired$357k
  3. Self-Employed & Freelance$274k
  4. Not Reported$87k
  5. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$83k

States

  1. IA$824k
  2. CA$766k
  3. NY$287k
  4. MA$164k
  5. DC$93k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗
Joe MitchellREP$2.9M raised
Spent $2.4MCash on hand $546kDebts $50k19% from donors under $200Self-funded $100k
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. MITCHELL, JOE$100k
  2. EMMER MAJORITY BUILDERS$56k
  3. NEEDHAM, VALERY$17k
  4. DEFEND OUR MAJORITY$14k
  5. EVANS, RILEY$13k

Industries

  1. Retired$632k
  2. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$95k
  3. Self-Employed & Freelance$83k
  4. Homemaker$52k
  5. Transportation & Logistics$28k

States

  1. IA$480k
  2. FL$278k
  3. TX$172k
  4. CA$103k
  5. IL$58k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗
Dave BushawIND$38k raised
Spent $27kCash on hand $11kDebts $5k27% from donors under $200Self-funded $2k
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. BOLTON, ROGER$4k
  2. WALTON, CHRISTY$4k
  3. BUSHAW, DAVE$2k
  4. YANG, ANDREW$2k
  5. FREDERIKSEN, GERI$1k

Industries

  1. Retired$8k
  2. Self-Employed & Freelance$4k
  3. Technology & Communications$2k
  4. Defense & Aerospace$207
  5. Government$113

States

  1. IA$6k
  2. CT$5k
  3. AR$4k
  4. NY$2k
  5. NH$519
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗

What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for IA-2; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Cook Political Report
View House ratings ↗
Inside Elections
View House ratings ↗
Sabato's Crystal Ball
View House analysis ↗

Past results

Every election in Iowa's 2nd district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.

YearWinnerMargin
2024Ashley Hinson(R)R+15.6
2020Mariannette Miller-Meeks(R)EVEN
2018Dave Loebsack(D)D+12.2
2014Dave Loebsack(D)D+5.1
2010Dave Loebsack(D)D+5.1
2006Dave Loebsack(D)D+2.9

Candidate news

No recent verified candidate stories are available in the site's news feed for this race yet.

Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗

Nearby in the directory: IA-1 · IA-3