Democratic
Zack Mullock
Major-party general-election nominee.
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New Jersey District 2 election, 2026
Zack Mullock vs. Jeff Van Drew. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Jeff Van Drew favored
Likely R · predicted margin R+8.9
93%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+13.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
1, averaging R+10.0Forecast spread
±6.1 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). The 1 district poll are blended in by inverse variance, about 39% of the weight: the model alone said R+8.3.
Republican
Jeff Van Drew
Incumbent representative for NJ-2. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Other listed candidates
- Ramon Mora Jr. · Independent
Polls
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstEach pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain).
PollsterDateSampleMargin
These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 39% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Jeff Van DrewREP · incumbent$2.4M raised
Spent $2.3MCash on hand $895k11% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
- SOUTH JERSEY FIRST$22k
- CONGRESS NJ$21k
- WEBER, RICHARD$15k
- HANSEN, EDWINA$14k
- SCIARRA, BRENDAN$13k
Industries
- Retired$369k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$144k
- Manufacturing & Industrial$36k
- Not Reported$35k
- Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals$30k
States
- NJ$1.2M
- PA$108k
- FL$105k
- TX$18k
- CA$14k
Zack MullockDEM$961k raised
Spent $856kCash on hand $105kDebts $110k23% from donors under $200Self-funded $110k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$286k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$55k
- Retired$13k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$10k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$8k
States
- NJ$453k
- PA$50k
- MD$13k
- CA$11k
- VA$10k
Ramon Mora Jr.IND$1k raised
Spent $1kCash on hand $85Debts $3k20% from donors under $200Self-funded $910
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for NJ-2; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in New Jersey's 2nd district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
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Raw Story · March 31, 2025
Space Nukes, Spy Balloons and Garlic: The Art of American Scaremongering
Republican Congressman Jefferson Van Drew has claimed on Fox News that alleged drone sightings over New Jersey were part of an Iranian plot involving a "mothership" off the US east coast, citing unnamed "high sources" despite a lack of evidence.
Sputnikglobe.com · December 15, 2024
Satellite Footage Reveals Iranian "Mothership" Drone Carriers Exist, Just Not Near New Jersey
Satellite Footage Reveals Iranian "Mothership" Drone Carriers Exist, Just Not Near New Jersey Pentagon Deputy Press Secretary Sabrina Singh quickly rejected Republican Congressman Jefferson Van Drew of New Jersey's claim that mysterious Iranian "mothership"…
Biztoc.com · December 12, 2024
Watch: Congressman Warns Iranian Mothership Lurking Off Coast Responsible For New Jersey Drone Scare
Watch: Congressman Warns Iranian Mothership Lurking Off Coast Responsible For New Jersey Drone Scare Republican Congressman Jefferson Van Drew of New Jersey, a member of both the House Judiciary Committee and the Transportation and Infrastructure Committee…
Biztoc.com · December 11, 2024
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗