Democratic
Kent Udell
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Utah District 3 election, 2026
Kent Udell vs. Celeste Maloy on a newly enacted 2026 district map.
VotePredictor forecast
Celeste Maloy favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+30.7
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+42.42026 national environment
D+6.6District polls
1, averaging R+18.1Forecast spread
±6.1 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). The 1 district poll are blended in by inverse variance, about 39% of the weight: the model alone said R+38.8.
Republican
Celeste Maloy
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Cassie Easley · Constitution
- Adonis Hooslyn · Independent
- Ayden Scott · Independent
- Michael Stoddard · Libertarian
Polls
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMargin
Lighthouse Research2026-09-15R+18.1
These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 39% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for UT-3; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Utah's 3rd district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
No recent verified candidate stories are available in the site's news feed for this race yet.
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗