American Viewpoint
Graded against the actual result across 20 races (from 24 polls, through 2022).
Head-to-head vs VotePredictor Elections
The fair, apples-to-apples test: on the 15 races American Viewpoint actually polled, how its final poll's margin compared to what VotePredictor Elections predicted for those same races.
| Model | Avg miss (pts) | Called right |
|---|---|---|
| American Viewpoint | 5.96 | 80% |
| VotePredictor Elections | 6.81 | 80% |
VotePredictor Elections aggregates all the pollsters, so it's expected to beat any single one on margin — that's the value of averaging. The honest comparison among forecasters is on the combined board.
Every race (19)
Each race American Viewpoint polled, scored on its final poll — the call right before the vote — against the actual Dem−Rep result. Click a race for its full detail.
| Race | Their call | Result | Miss | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 OK Governor | R+15.0 | R+13.7 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2020 CA-21 House | R+11.0 | R+0.9 | 10.1 | ✓ |
| 2020 IA-4 House | R+23.0 | R+24.2 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2020 PA-1 House | R+16.0 | R+13.1 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 2018 AZ-1 House | EVEN | D+7.7 | 7.7 | ✗ |
| 2018 IL-13 House | R+13.0 | R+0.8 | 12.2 | ✓ |
| 2018 OH-1 House | R+7.0 | R+4.4 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 2018 IN Senate | R+4.0 | R+5.9 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 2016 NY-21 House | R+25.0 | R+35.1 | 10.1 | ✓ |
| 2014 CA-31 House | D+4.0 | D+3.5 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2012 CT-5 House | R+7.0 | D+2.6 | 9.6 | ✗ |
| 2012 IA-4 House | R+7.0 | R+8.1 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2010 GA-8 House | R+8.0 | R+5.4 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 2006 CT-5 House | R+10.0 | D+12.9 | 22.9 | ✗ |
| 2004 NC Senate | R+2.0 | R+4.6 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 2002 FL-22 House | R+29.0 | R+22.4 | 6.6 | ✓ |
| 2002 WA-2 House | R+3.0 | D+4.3 | 7.3 | ✗ |
| 2002 MO Senate | R+7.0 | R+1.1 | 5.9 | ✓ |
| 2000 US President | R+2.0 | D+0.5 | 2.5 | ✗ |
Accuracy by time to election
Lower is better. Time to election runs right (election week) to left (~2 months out).
By the numbers
| Time to election | Polls | Avg miss | vs field | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–3 wk | 7 | 6.76 | +1.70 | 43% |
| 3–6 wk | 12 | 5.78 | +0.08 | 83% |
| 6–9 wk | 5 | 8.75 | +2.61 | 80% |
vs field is this pollster's average miss minus all pollsters' at the same lead time — green beats the field, redtrails it. Our historical polls reach ~2 months out; earlier polling isn't in the record.
Track record by cycle — getting better?
| Year | Polls | Avg miss | Lean (house effect) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | 4 | 6.7 | R+6.7 |
| 2018 | 6 | 4.7 | R+2.8 |
| 2020 | 3 | 4.7 | R+3.9 |
Do we credit a pollster for fixing its bias? Each cycle, the model re-estimates every pollster's lean from all its earlier polls (walk-forward) and subtracts it before using the poll. We tested weighting recent cycles more — it doesn't help: a pollster's lean in one cycle barely predicts the next (correlation 0.28), so the swings above are mostly noise, and averaging over more history beats chasing the latest cycle. The all-time estimate we use came out within ~0.5% of the best option.