NY-17 House
The 2026 NY-17 House race is essentially a toss-up: Mike Lawler (R) holds a narrow 52% edge, projected to win by less than a point. Updated daily from 1 poll.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 1 poll of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+0.8 — a 52% Republican win. With only a poll or two this early, the forecast stays cautious and leans partly on the seat's history.
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 NY-17 House race?
VotePredictor's model favors Mike Lawler (R), with roughly a 52% chance of winning and a projected margin of R+0.8. It is close enough to be a toss-up.
What do the polls say in the NY-17 House race?
There is 1 poll of this race. The most recent, from FM3 Research (2026-07-01), showed D+6.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is R+0.8.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 NY-17 House race?
Cait Conley is the Democratic candidate; Mike Lawler is the Republican.
When is the 2026 NY-17 House election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
How does VotePredictor forecast the NY-17 House race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.