Independent
Dan Osborn
Major-party general-election nominee.
← all Senate races
Nebraska U.S. Senate election, 2026
Dan Osborn (I) vs. Pete Ricketts (R). Incumbent re-elected.
No Democrat on the ballot — the race is Osborn (I) vs. Ricketts (R)
Cindy Burbank, who won the Democratic primary with 89.5%, withdrew from the general election on July 17, 2026 and will not appear on the ballot. No Democrat is running. The November race is Republican Pete Ricketts against independent Dan Osborn, who qualified for the ballot in July with over 6,000 signatures and whom the Nebraska Democratic Party endorsed. This Dem-vs-Rep model cannot forecast that matchup. It does not distort the control number either way: Osborn has said he would not caucus with either party, so an Osborn win is not a Democratic seat, which is exactly how the simulation already treats it.
Independent-vs-Republican forecast
Ricketts (R) 59% to win
Dan Osborn (I) 41%Pete Ricketts (R) 59%
4 polls average Ricketts +2.0; a typical miss is ±9 points. A separate independent-vs-Republican method, not the main model: the recency-weighted poll average, with a spread set by how far polls missed in past competitive independent Senate races (Kansas 2014, Utah 2022; both overstated the independent). It is not part of the Senate-control figure, where this seat counts for the party defending it.
The main model publishes no number for this race. It forecasts a Democrat against a Republican, so the figure above comes from the separate independent-vs-Republican method.
Republican
Pete Ricketts
Incumbent. Voting record and biography →
Other listed candidates
- Chuck Conboy · America First
- Mike Marvin · Legal Marijuana Now
- Robin Richards · Working People
Polls
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstEach pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain). VotePredictor adjusted (“Our adj.” on small screens) is not a poll: it is our correction of that poll, for its pollster's record in past elections and for registered-voter or all-adult samples. It is the number our forecast reads.
PollsterDateSampleMarginOur adj.VotePredictor adjusted
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Pete RickettsREP · incumbent$14.5M raised
Spent $13.8MCash on hand $1.2M2% from donors under $200Self-funded $7.3M
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$300k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$290k
- Legal & Professional Services$194k
- Government Relations and Lobbying Services$171k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$65k
States
- NE$753k
- TX$198k
- NY$186k
- FL$159k
- VA$122k
Dan OsbornIND$11.0M raised
Spent $9.1MCash on hand $2.0MDebts $25k36% from donors under $200Self-funded $11
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$1.6M
- Self-Employed & Freelance$422k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$187k
- Legal & Professional Services$161k
- Retired$66k
States
- CA$620k
- NE$580k
- NY$501k
- MA$331k
- DC$180k
Mike MarvinOTH$28k raised
Spent $28kCash on hand $00% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$14k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$5k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$4k
- Education & Academia$1k
States
- CA$12k
- NY$7k
- NE$4k
- OH$3k
- DC$2k
Chuck ConboyOTH$0 raised
Spent $88Cash on hand −$880% from donors under $200
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The Senate forecast does not read these figures. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
Cook
Lean R≈ R 75%
as of Nov 2, 2026
DDHQ
Lean R≈ R 75%
as of Nov 3, 2026
Econ
Likely R≈ R 90%
as of Nov 3, 2026
FPO
Likely R≈ R 90%
as of Nov 2, 2026
Fox
Lean R≈ R 75%
as of Nov 1, 2026
IE
Tilt R≈ R 60%
as of Oct 29, 2026
MS NOW
Likely R≈ R 90%
as of Oct 29, 2026
NBC
Lean R≈ R 75%
as of Nov 3, 2026
RCP
Tossup≈ 50%
as of Nov 2, 2026
Sabato
Lean R≈ R 75%
as of Nov 2, 2026
Silver
Lean R≈ R 75%
as of Nov 3, 2026
ST
Lean R≈ R 75%
as of Nov 2, 2026
The source we collect records each outlet's rating category, not a probability; some of these outlets run models with their own numbers on their sites. The ≈ figure is the standard conversion of the category (Toss-up 50%, Tilt 60%, Lean 75%, Likely 90%, Solid 99%), the one our scorecard grades them on, not a number they published. They remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Past results
Every U.S. Senate election in Nebraska we hold a result for. A state elects two senators on separate cycles, so this covers both of its seats, not only the one on the ballot in 2026.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Pete Ricketts wins Nebraska 2026 Senate election, CBS News projects - CBS News
Pete Ricketts wins Nebraska 2026 Senate election, CBS News projectsCBS News 2026 Midterm Election Results: Latest UpdatesPolitico GOP Sen. Pete Ricketts fends off independent Dan Osborn in Nebraska Senate raceNBC News Pete Ricketts claims victory over Dan Osb…
Slashdot.org · November 4, 2026
GOP Sen. Pete Ricketts fends off independent Dan Osborn in Nebraska Senate race - NBC News
GOP Sen. Pete Ricketts fends off independent Dan Osborn in Nebraska Senate raceNBC News 2026 Midterm Election Results: Latest UpdatesPolitico Pete Ricketts claims victory over Dan Osborn in US Senate race still being counted Tuesday nightNebraska Examiner Sen…
Slashdot.org · November 4, 2026
Election Night 2026: Nebraska Senate race updates - WOWT
Election Night 2026: Nebraska Senate race updatesWOWT 2026 Midterm Election Results: Latest UpdatesPolitico GOP Sen. Pete Ricketts fends off independent Dan Osborn in Nebraska Senate raceNBC News Nebraska U.S. Senate 2026: Live Midterm Election Results, Ricke…
Slashdot.org · November 4, 2026
Ricketts expected to win tight race for U.S. Senate - Nebraska Public Media
Ricketts expected to win tight race for U.S. SenateNebraska Public Media 2026 Midterm Election Results: Latest UpdatesPolitico GOP Sen. Pete Ricketts fends off independent Dan Osborn in Nebraska Senate raceNBC News Senator Pete Ricketts of Nebraska Fends Off …
Slashdot.org · November 4, 2026
Pete Ricketts wins Nebraska Senate election, CBS News projects
GOP Sen. Pete Ricketts won reelection in the Nebraska Senate race, CBS News projects, fending off a challenge from independent Dan Osborn.
CBS News · November 4, 2026