Democratic
Jack Reed
Incumbent. Voting record and biography →
← all Senate races
Jack Reed vs. Raymond McKay: Rhode Island U.S. Senate election, 2026
Jack Reed vs. Raymond McKay. Incumbent re-elected.
VotePredictor forecast (our model)
Jack Reed favored
Safe D
99%
chance to win
D+27.3
predicted margin
Poll-driven model · 4 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology → · Today's article: every poll and forecast →
Republican
Raymond McKay
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Michael Bahry · Independent
Polls
The polls behind it
7 polls · 4 in today's forecast · newest firstDimmed polls are more than 61 days old. They stay on the record, but today's forecast no longer counts them. Each pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain). VotePredictor adjusted (“Our adj.” on small screens) is not a poll: it is our correction of that poll, for its pollster's record in past elections and for registered-voter or all-adult samples. It is the number our forecast reads.
PollsterDateSampleMarginOur adj.VotePredictor adjusted
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Jack ReedDEM · incumbent$4.8M raised
Spent $4.9MCash on hand $1.9M1% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$540k
- Legal & Professional Services$243k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$193k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$176k
- Technology & Communications$82k
States
- RI$629k
- NY$285k
- MA$214k
- CA$207k
- VA$114k
Raymond McKayREP$207k raised
Spent $199kCash on hand $8kDebts $69036% from donors under $200Self-funded $116
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$67k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$16k
- Homemaker$2k
- Government$500
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$250
States
- RI$19k
- TX$17k
- NY$15k
- CA$9k
- FL$7k
Michael BahryIND$125k raised
Spent $32kCash on hand $93kDebts $122k0% from donors under $200Self-funded $122k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
- BAHRY, MICHAEL$5k
- AHEARN, MICHAEL$1k
- COSTA, REGINA$521
- POLAND, WILLIAM$261
- RICCI, PHIL$261
Industries
- Retired$2k
States
- RI$1k
- SC$1k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The Senate forecast does not read these figures. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
VotePredictor (ours)
D 99%
a probability from our model
Cook
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Nov 2, 2026
DDHQ
Safe D≈ D 99%
as of Nov 3, 2026
Econ
Safe D≈ D 99%
as of Nov 3, 2026
FPO
Safe D≈ D 99%
as of Nov 2, 2026
Fox
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Nov 1, 2026
IE
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Oct 29, 2026
MS NOW
Safe D≈ D 99%
as of Oct 29, 2026
NBC
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Nov 3, 2026
RCP
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Nov 2, 2026
Sabato
Safe D≈ D 99%
as of Nov 2, 2026
Silver
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Nov 3, 2026
ST
Safe D≈ D 99%
as of Nov 2, 2026
The source we collect records each outlet's rating category, not a probability; some of these outlets run models with their own numbers on their sites. The ≈ figure is the standard conversion of the category (Toss-up 50%, Tilt 60%, Lean 75%, Likely 90%, Solid 99%), the one our scorecard grades them on, not a number they published. They remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Independent models
Win probabilities published by independent statistical models, shown with credit as their terms allow: Who Shows Up (whoshowsup.net), by Kurt Wirth. These are their numbers, not ratings converted by us, and not VotePredictor's. The better-known model forecasters (Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Silver Bulletin, the Economist) don't permit republishing their probabilities, so they appear above by rating only.
Past results
Every U.S. Senate election in Rhode Island we hold a result for. A state elects two senators on separate cycles, so this covers both of its seats, not only the one on the ballot in 2026.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Democrat Sen. Jack Reed Reelected in Rhode Island Senate Race
Nearly 30-year incumbent Sen. Jack Reed (D-RI) secured his victory in his reelection bid against Republican Raymond McKay Tuesday night. The post Democrat Sen. Jack Reed Reelected in Rhode Island Senate Race appeared first on Breitbart.
Breitbart News · November 4, 2026
Veteran Dem senator cruises past far-left primary challengers in bid for sixth term
Sen. Jack Reed, D-R.I., defeated two far-left challengers in the Rhode Island U.S. Senate primary Wednesday, advancing to the November general election in his bid for a sixth term.
Fox News · September 10, 2026
‘Pentagon right now is, in some cases, rudderless’: Army Secretary Dan Driscoll steps down after just 18 months
Rhode Island Senator and former Army officer Jack Reed said Secretary Hegseth is "cultivating a culture where dissent is punished."
Fortune · September 1, 2026
Under pressure from Trump on war powers, Republicans fold and try to appease White House
On Tuesday, Congress did something it had never done before: It approved a war powers resolution that rebuked Donald Trump and called on the president to end the war in Iran. It was a largely symbolic move — the measure had no formal force of law — but as Dem…
Biztoc.com · June 25, 2026
Trump wants Sen. Jack Reed to be impeached, which is foolish for all sorts of reasons
As much of the world started to come to terms with the purported framework to end the U.S. war in Iran, Sen. Jack Reed, the top Democrat on the Senate Armed Services Committee, appeared on “Fox News Sunday” and made clear that he was unimpressed. Indeed, the …
Biztoc.com · June 16, 2026