Democratic
Katie Hobbs
Major-party general-election nominee.
← all governor races
Arizona governor election, 2026
Katie Hobbs vs. Andy Biggs. Incumbent renominated.
VotePredictor forecast
Katie Hobbs favored
Lean D · predicted margin D+5.5
71%
chance to win
Poll-driven model · 12 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology →
Republican
Andy Biggs
Sitting U.S. Representative. Voting record and biography →
Other listed candidates
- Teri Hourihan · No Labels
- Risa Lombardo · Green
- Leezah Sun · Independent
Polls
| Pollster | Date | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| NextGen Polling | 2026-08-19 | D+1.0 |
| HighGround | 2026-08-18 | D+16.0 |
| Quantus Insights | 2026-08-17 | D+6.0 |
| Kreate Strategies | 2026-08-16 | D+5.0 |
| Stealth Analytics | 2026-08-13 | D+5.0 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | 2026-08-13 | D+13.0 |
| The Tarrance Group | 2026-07-30 | D+4.0 |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research | 2026-07-28 | D+8.0 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | 2026-05-07 | D+4.0 |
| TIPP Insights | 2026-04-24 | D+10.0 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | 2026-02-26 | D+5.0 |
| Center for Excellence in Polling | 2026-01-24 | D+9.0 |
Other forecasts
Cook
Lean D
as of Sep. 17, 2026
IE
Tilt D
as of Sep. 17., 2026
Sabato
Lean D
as of Sep. 3, 2026
RCP
Lean D
as of Sep. 17, 2026
Fox
Lean D
as of Sep. 22, 2026
Silver
Likely D
as of Sep. 17, 2026
DDHQ
Lean D
as of Sep. 17, 2026
Published ratings are categorical, not probabilities, and remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Past results
Every Arizona election for governor we hold a result for.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs adds to long list of scandals
Subpoenaed to answer questions about alleged pay-to-play cash
Wnd.com · Today
The Surprising Issue Dividing Senate Dems Right Now
You’re reading The TNR Blue Book. Get daily scoops, strategy, and developments inside the liberal ideas factory delivered right to your inbox. Sign up for free.Inside WashingtonThe surprising issue dividing Senate Dems right nowWhile Americans worry about sky…
The New Republic · September 18, 2026
Arizona House Speaker Accuses AG Mayes of Rigging Gov. Hobbs’ Pay-to-Play Investigation to Ensure Reelection
The Arizona House Speaker is investigating the attorney general over evidence that she may have rigged her investigation to protect the governor. Speaker Steve Montenegro wrote a letter to Kris Mayes last Thursday challenging her on the result of her investig…
Freerepublic.com · September 6, 2026
Trump’s War on Mail-In Ballots Could Hurt This Overlooked Voting Bloc
You’re reading The TNR Blue Book. Get daily scoops, strategy, and developments inside the liberal ideas factory delivered right to your inbox. Sign up for free.Inside Washington President Donald Trump’s efforts to restrict mail-in voting have grabbed news hea…
The New Republic · September 4, 2026
Arizona group home provider isn't penalized in boy's death
A 9-year-old boy died in 2022 after missing insulin doses at an Arizona group home. There were no penalties for Jakob Blodgett's death, and the provider now stands at the center of a political controversy involving Gov. Katie Hobbs. Records show Sunshine Resi…
Associated Press · September 4, 2026
Trump’s Unpopularity Hangs Over Andy Biggs in Arizona
President Donald Trump’s unpopularity in Arizona could be a problem for Republican gubernatorial nominee Andy Biggs, who is trailing his Democratic rival, Governor Katie Hobbs, in polls ahead of November’s elections. Biggs is a fierce supporter of Trump and h…
Biztoc.com · August 23, 2026
Andy Biggs’ Big Gamble In Arizona
By EMMA DAYTON, The Daily Signal | August 12, 2026 Many politicians dedicate their entire lives to making it to the shining city of Washington, D.C. But that initial glow can fade. Representatives often realize they would rather return to their families and c…
Biztoc.com · August 15, 2026
What Sherrod Brown Has to Do to Beat Jon Husted in Ohio
You’re reading The TNR Blue Book. Get daily scoops, strategy, and developments inside the liberal ideas factory delivered right to your inbox. Sign up for free.Inside WashingtonCould Jon Husted be Sherrod Brown’s ideal opponent?We’re taking a look outside of …
The New Republic · August 12, 2026