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Katie Hobbs vs. Andy Biggs: Arizona governor election, 2026

Katie Hobbs vs. Andy Biggs. Incumbent re-elected..

VotePredictor forecast (our model)
Katie Hobbs favored
Safe D
98%
chance to win
D+8.2
predicted margin

Poll-driven model · 13 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology → · Today's article: every poll and forecast →

Democratic

Katie Hobbs

Major-party general-election nominee.

Other listed candidates

  • Risa Lombardo · Green
  • Teri Hourihan · No Labels

Polls

The polls behind it

28 polls · 13 in today's forecast · newest first

Dimmed polls are more than 61 days old. They stay on the record, but today's forecast no longer counts them. Each pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain). VotePredictor adjusted (“Our adj.” on small screens) is not a poll: it is our correction of that poll, for its pollster's record in past elections and for registered-voter or all-adult samples. It is the number our forecast reads.

PollsterDateMarginOur adj.
GrayHouse (via Wikipedia)10-29D+5.0D+4.3
Noble Predictive Insights10-28D+6.0D+4.5
Kreate Strategies10-27D+5.0D+4.3
HighGround, Inc. (via Wikipedia)10-25D+13.0D+12.3
RedBox Research (via Wikipedia)10-23D+5.0D+4.3
GrayHouse10-20D+6.0D+5.3
Equis Research10-09D+6.0D+3.4
HighGround, Inc. (via Wikipedia)10-08D+17.0D+16.3
GrayHouse (via Wikipedia)10-08D+6.0D+5.3
Wick (via Wikipedia)10-06D+6.0D+8.9
GQR (via Wikipedia)Grade C+10-05D+4.0D+0.8
Lake Research PartnersGrade D09-30D+23.0D+16.4
Equis Research (via Wikipedia)09-09D+6.0D+4.5
BSP Research09-04D+13.0D+12.5
Arizona State University (via Wikipedia)09-04D+13.0D+9.0
NextGen Polling08-19D+1.0D+0.3
HighGround08-18D+16.0D+15.3
Quantus Insights08-17D+6.0D+7.7
Kreate Strategies08-16D+5.0D+4.3
Stealth Analytics08-13D+5.0D+4.3
Noble Predictive Insights08-13D+13.0D+11.5
Grayhouse (via Wikipedia)08-11D+4.0D+3.3
The Tarrance Group07-30D+4.0D+3.3
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research07-28D+8.0D+8.9
Noble Predictive Insights05-07D+4.0D+2.5
TIPP Insights (via Wikipedia)04-24D+10.0D+10.2
Noble Predictive Insights02-26D+5.0D+3.5
Center for Excellence in Polling01-24D+9.0D+8.3

Other forecasts

VotePredictor (ours)
D 98%
a probability from our model
Cook
Likely D≈ D 90%
as of Oct. 29, 2026
DDHQ
Likely D≈ D 90%
as of Nov. 3, 2026
Fox
Lean D≈ D 75%
as of Nov. 1, 2026
IE
Tilt D≈ D 60%
as of Oct. 29, 2026
NBC
Likely D≈ D 90%
as of Nov. 3, 2026
RCP
Lean D≈ D 75%
as of Nov. 1, 2026
Sabato
Likely D≈ D 90%
as of Nov. 2, 2026
Silver
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Nov. 3, 2026

The source we collect records each outlet's rating category, not a probability; some of these outlets run models with their own numbers on their sites. The ≈ figure is the standard conversion of the category (Toss-up 50%, Tilt 60%, Lean 75%, Likely 90%, Solid 99%), the one our scorecard grades them on, not a number they published. They remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗

Independent models

Who Shows Up · independent model ↗
D 96%D+8.7
as of 2026-11-03

Win probabilities published by independent statistical models, shown with credit as their terms allow: Who Shows Up (whoshowsup.net), by Kurt Wirth. These are their numbers, not ratings converted by us, and not VotePredictor's. The better-known model forecasters (Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Silver Bulletin, the Economist) don't permit republishing their probabilities, so they appear above by rating only.

Past results

Every Arizona election for governor we hold a result for.

YearWinnerMargin
2022Katie Hobbs(D)D+0.7
2018Doug Ducey(R)R+14.2
2014Doug Ducey(R)R+11.8
2010Janice Kay Brewer(R)R+11.9
2006Janet Napolitano(D)D+27.1
2002Janet Napolitano(D)D+1.0
1998Jane Hull(R)R+25.4

Candidate news

Democrats take full control of Arizona government for 1st time in 60 years

PHOENIX (AP) — Democrats in Arizona won control of both legislative chambers and retained the governor's office, giving the party its first trifecta in the state since 1966 as Democrats made major gains nationwide in this week's elections and took control of …

Yahoo Entertainment · Yesterday
Democrat Gov. Katie Hobbs Secures Victory in Arizona Gubernatorial Race

Democrat Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs won her reelection bid against Republican challenger Rep. Andy Biggs. The post Democrat Gov. Katie Hobbs Secures Victory in Arizona Gubernatorial Race appeared first on Breitbart.

Breitbart News · November 4, 2026
Death blow for Turning Point USA as Charlie Kirk-backed Andy Biggs falls to Democrat in Arizona's hot governor race

Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs won re-election on Tuesday, defeating Republican challenger Representative Andy Biggs.

Dailymail.com · November 4, 2026
Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs wins re-election over GOP Rep. Andy Biggs in Arizona

Democrat Katie Hobbs has won re-election as Arizona governor, NBC News projects, defeating Republican Rep.

NBC News · November 4, 2026
BREAKING: Fraudster Katie Hobbs Wins Reelection for Arizona Governor Against Republican Andy Biggs

Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs has been declared the winner in the Arizona Governor race against Trump-Endorsed Republican challenger US Rep. The post BREAKING: Fraudster Katie Hobbs Wins Reelection for Arizona Governor Against Republican Andy Biggs appeared fi…

Thegatewaypundit.com · November 4, 2026
Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs wins reelection, defeating GOP election denier

Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs will win the governor's race, CBS News projects, besting Trump ally Rep. Andy Biggs.

CBS News · November 4, 2026