Democratic
Ned Lamont
Major-party general-election nominee.
← all governor races
Ned Lamont vs. Ryan Fazio: Connecticut governor election, 2026
Ned Lamont vs. Ryan Fazio. Incumbent re-elected..
VotePredictor forecast (our model)
Ned Lamont favored
Safe D
99%
chance to win
D+17.0
predicted margin
Poll-driven model · 10 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology → · Today's article: every poll and forecast →
Republican
Ryan Fazio
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
The polls behind it
13 polls · 10 in today's forecast · newest firstDimmed polls are more than 61 days old. They stay on the record, but today's forecast no longer counts them. Each pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain). VotePredictor adjusted (“Our adj.” on small screens) is not a poll: it is our correction of that poll, for its pollster's record in past elections and for registered-voter or all-adult samples. It is the number our forecast reads.
PollsterDateSampleMarginOur adj.VotePredictor adjusted
Other forecasts
VotePredictor (ours)
D 99%
a probability from our model
Cook
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Oct. 29, 2026
DDHQ
Likely D≈ D 90%
as of Nov. 3, 2026
Fox
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Nov. 1, 2026
IE
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Oct. 29, 2026
NBC
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Nov. 3, 2026
RCP
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Nov. 1, 2026
Sabato
Safe D≈ D 99%
as of Nov. 2, 2026
Silver
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Nov. 3, 2026
The source we collect records each outlet's rating category, not a probability; some of these outlets run models with their own numbers on their sites. The ≈ figure is the standard conversion of the category (Toss-up 50%, Tilt 60%, Lean 75%, Likely 90%, Solid 99%), the one our scorecard grades them on, not a number they published. They remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Independent models
Win probabilities published by independent statistical models, shown with credit as their terms allow: Who Shows Up (whoshowsup.net), by Kurt Wirth. These are their numbers, not ratings converted by us, and not VotePredictor's. The better-known model forecasters (Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Silver Bulletin, the Economist) don't permit republishing their probabilities, so they appear above by rating only.
Past results
Every Connecticut election for governor we hold a result for.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Incumbent Democrat Ned Lamont Secures Governor's Mansion in Connecticut
Incumbent Democrat Gov. Ned Lamont (D) won the governor's race in Connecticut, securing his third term Tuesday night. The post Incumbent Democrat Ned Lamont Secures Governor’s Mansion in Connecticut appeared first on Breitbart.
Breitbart News · November 4, 2026
Lamont (D-CT Gov.) accused of ‘swatting’ reporter’s phone away after campaign event
The Greenwich woman who appeared to have her phone swatted away by Gov. Ned Lamont on Saturday as she attempted to ask him a question told News 8 on Sunday that she is unlikely to seek criminal charges. The woman, Jackie Homan, identified herself as a reporte…
Freerepublic.com · November 3, 2026
Early Addition: Is Harry running?
Because Harry Styles' Madison Square Garden residency is over in time for the marathon, here are your early links: Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont going for a historic third term, real estate brokers posing in their listing photos, watches on ankles and more. [ m…
Gothamist · October 30, 2026
Federal Court Gives Connecticut Glock Ban The Heave-Ho
A federal judge issued an injunction blocking Connecticut from enforcing a ban on Glock pistols Wednesday. Glock and the National Shooting Sports Foundation (NSSF) sued to block Connecticut’s ban on the manufacturer’s popular pistols, which Democratic Connect…
Freerepublic.com · October 1, 2026
Ned Lamont Leads in Connecticut Governor’s Race
A new co/efficient poll in Connecticut finds Ned Lamont (D) leading Ryan Fazio (R) in the governor’s race, 48% to 41%. Connecticut Governor’s Race Ned Lamont (D) 48% Ryan Fazio (R) 41% co/efficient poll
Politicalwire.com · September 23, 2026
Fact check: Did Gov. Ned Lamont raise Connecticut electric bills like Ryan Fazio says?
Republican challenger Ryan Fazio told Connecticut voters in a recent campaign mailer that two-term Democratic Gov. Ned Lamont has raised their electric bills. The high cost of electricity and cost of living in the state is a central issue in the 2026 campaign…
Biztoc.com · September 13, 2026
Connecticut Catholic bishops condemn discrimination against Catholics at public school
GUNDAM_Ai/Shutterstock Washington, D.C. Newsroom, Aug 31, 2022 / 17:15 pm (CNA). Connecticut’s Catholic dioceses have condemned comments made in a video by a public elementary school assistant principal who admitted on hidden camera that he discrimina…
Catholicnewsagency.com · August 31, 2022
‘A Message Loud And Clear’: GOP Flips CT State Senate District Biden Won By 25 Points
Republican Ryan Fazio beat Democrat Alexis Gevanter by nearly 3 points to secure a seat in the Connecticut Senate, flipping state Senate district 36 from blue to red. “Today the voters of Greenwich, Stamford, and New Canaan sent a message loud and clear to th…
Freerepublic.com · August 20, 2021