Democratic
David Jolly
Major-party general-election nominee.
← all governor races
David Jolly vs. Byron Donalds: Florida governor election, 2026
David Jolly vs. Byron Donalds. Incumbent term-limited. Republican hold..
VotePredictor forecast (our model)
Byron Donalds favored
Safe R
97%
chance to win
R+7.1
predicted margin
Poll-driven model · 14 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology → · Today's article: every poll and forecast →
Republican
Byron Donalds
Sitting U.S. Representative. Voting record and biography →
Other listed candidates
- Scott Jewett · Libertarian
- Frank Russo · Independent
- Charles Burkett · Independent
- Dean Abrams · Independent
- Jeffrey Datto · Independent
- Moe Dimanche · Independent
Polls
The polls behind it
26 polls · 14 in today's forecast · newest firstDimmed polls are more than 61 days old. They stay on the record, but today's forecast no longer counts them. Each pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain). VotePredictor adjusted (“Our adj.” on small screens) is not a poll: it is our correction of that poll, for its pollster's record in past elections and for registered-voter or all-adult samples. It is the number our forecast reads.
PollsterDateSampleMarginOur adj.VotePredictor adjusted
Change ResearchGrade B-09-092026-09-09D+3.0R+0.5
Other forecasts
VotePredictor (ours)
R 97%
a probability from our model
Cook
Lean R≈ R 75%
as of Oct. 29, 2026
DDHQ
Lean R≈ R 75%
as of Nov. 3, 2026
Fox
Lean R≈ R 75%
as of Nov. 1, 2026
IE
Lean R≈ R 75%
as of Oct. 29, 2026
NBC
Lean R≈ R 75%
as of Nov. 3, 2026
RCP
Tossup≈ 50%
as of Nov. 1, 2026
Sabato
Lean R≈ R 75%
as of Nov. 2, 2026
Silver
Likely R≈ R 90%
as of Nov. 3, 2026
The source we collect records each outlet's rating category, not a probability; some of these outlets run models with their own numbers on their sites. The ≈ figure is the standard conversion of the category (Toss-up 50%, Tilt 60%, Lean 75%, Likely 90%, Solid 99%), the one our scorecard grades them on, not a number they published. They remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Independent models
Win probabilities published by independent statistical models, shown with credit as their terms allow: Who Shows Up (whoshowsup.net), by Kurt Wirth. These are their numbers, not ratings converted by us, and not VotePredictor's. The better-known model forecasters (Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Silver Bulletin, the Economist) don't permit republishing their probabilities, so they appear above by rating only.
Past results
Every Florida election for governor we hold a result for.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
One Big Lesson for 2028
You’re reading The TNR Blue Book. Get daily scoops, strategy, and developments inside the liberal ideas factory delivered right to your inbox. Sign up for free.Inside Washington “As other states shift left in a brutal cycle, Florida does what we do best—we he…
The New Republic · Yesterday
Watch: Landmark Victory in Florida As Byron Donalds Elected First Black Governor
Republican U.S. Representative Byron Donalds won Florida’s gubernatorial election, making history as the Sunshine State’s first Black governor after defeating Democratic nominee David Jolly in an unexpectedly competitive battle down the stretch. The conservat…
Biztoc.com · November 4, 2026
Pro-Life Republican Byron Donalds Wins Florida Governor’s Race
Republican U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds defeated Democrat David Jolly in Florida’s gubernatorial election Tuesday, securing the governorship for the GOP and preserving the state’s pro-life policies. With more than 97 percent of the vote counted, Donalds led with r…
Freerepublic.com · November 4, 2026
WATCH: Republican Byron Donalds speaks after winning election for governor in Florida
Donalds, who will become the nation's first elected Black Republican governor, fended off David Jolly, a former Republican congressman who switched parties and ran a centrist campaign.
Biztoc.com · November 4, 2026
Byron Donalds wins Florida governor’s race
Byron Donalds has been elected Florida’s first Black governor, defeating David Jolly in a race that tightened down the stretch.
WAPT Jackson · November 4, 2026
How HBCU Grads Made Their Mark on the 2026 Midterms
While Democrats are celebrating big wins following a historic blue wave in the midterms, many of our historically Black colleges and universities (HBCUs) also have plenty to celebrate. From Keisha Lance Bottoms in Georgia to Donna Miller in Illinois, more tha…
The Root · Today
Watch: Instead of Simply Celebrating Dem Wins, MSNOW Attacks FL Gov-Elect Byron Donalds, Claiming He Isn’t Black
According to a far-left viewpoint expressed on MSNOW, the first black governor of Florida needs an asterisk because his politics are not within the limits that define who is politically allowed to be black, at least according to the Democrats. The post Watch:…
Thegatewaypundit.com · Yesterday
Democratic socialist Nithya Raman defeats incumbent Karen Bass in the L.A. mayoral race
Democrats continue to celebrate one of the most lopsided midterm election victories in modern U.S. history, routing their Republican rivals to gain control of the U.S. House, U.S. Senate and statehouses across the country.In the Senate, Democrats flipped se…
Yahoo Entertainment · Yesterday