Democratic
David Jolly
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates: Evelyn Castillo-Bach, Thomas Fernandez, Dayna Foster, Dotie Joseph, Stephann Norman.
VotePredictor forecast
Byron Donalds favored
Lean R · predicted margin R+9.6
80%
chance to win
Poll-driven model · 12 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology →
Republican
Byron Donalds
Sitting U.S. Representative. Voting record and biography →
Other listed candidates: Jay Collins, James Fishback, Daniel Nokovich, Paul Renner, Rachel Rodriguez, James Shaw, Caneste Succe, Bobby Williams.
Other listed candidates
- Dean Abrams · Independent
- Charles Burkett · Independent
- Jeffrey Datto · Independent
- Moe Dimanche · Independent
- Scott Jewett · Libertarian
- Desmond Meade · Independent
- Frank Russo · Independent
Polls
| Pollster | Date | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| Targoz Market Research | 2026-07-26 | R+7.0 |
| University of North Florida | 2026-07-17 | R+5.0 |
| Change Research | 2026-05-16 | D+4.0 |
| Cherry Communications | 2026-05-09 | R+8.0 |
| The Public Sentiment Institute | 2026-04-27 | EVEN |
| Stetson University | 2026-04-13 | R+7.0 |
| Echelon Insights | 2026-04-09 | R+6.0 |
| MDW Communications | 2026-04-03 | R+0.7 |
| Emerson College | 2026-03-31 | R+4.8 |
| University of North Florida | 2026-03-02 | R+6.0 |
| Public Sentiment Institute | 2026-02-20 | D+6.5 |
| Targoz Market Research | 2026-02-16 | R+2.0 |
Other forecasts
Cook
Solid R
IE
Solid R
Sabato
Likely R
WH
Lean R
RCP
Likely R
Fox
Solid R
VoteHub
Tilt R
Published ratings are categorical, not probabilities, and remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Candidate news
FL Governor's Race: Democrat Candidate David Jolly Wants to 'Apologize' to the World for 'Culture Wars'
Democrat gubernatorial hopeful David Jolly wants to apologize to the "world" on behalf of Florida for launching what he described as "culture wars" — i.e., protecting children from genital mutilation surgery, protecting citizens from criminal illegal aliens, …
Breitbart News · August 3, 2026
Exclusive — Byron Donalds: Florida Gubernatorial Candidate David Jolly a 'Trojan Horse' Who Supports Transing Children
Florida Democrat gubernatorial candidate David Jolly is a "Trojan horse" who embraces the radical left's wild ideas, Republican gubernatorial hopeful Rep. Byron Donalds said during an appearance on Breitbart News Saturday weeks ahead of the primary election. …
Breitbart News · August 3, 2026
Democrats’ Plan for Ending the Iran War
Editor’s Note: Welcome to The TNR Blue Book. It’s our new daily newsletter that covers Congress and much more, but with a distinctly TNR twist: Our focus will be strictly on Democrats, liberal and progressive groups, and the fight to take back power and save …
The New Republic · July 22, 2026
Map Shows States Where Governor Candidates Support Data Center Moratoriums
Data center construction is becoming a flashpoint for gubernatorial races across the country in the 2026 midterm elections, with an increasing number of candidates from both parties voicing support for temporary moratoriums. Florida gubernatorial candidate Da…
Biztoc.com · July 21, 2026
Byron Donalds' Chances of Being Defeated by Democrats in Florida—New Poll
Republican Representative Byron Donalds leads Democrat David Jolly by 5 points in a new University of North Florida poll of Florida’s governor race. The new poll found Donalds leading Jolly 46 percent to 41 percent among likely voters in the Florida governor …
Biztoc.com · July 20, 2026
Trump DOJ rankled by far-right Republican's bogus claims against MAGA rival
Far-right Florida gubernatorial candidate James Fishback's latest stunt has President Donald Trump's Justice Department stepping in against him.A hedge fund manager who has built up a cult following among young Republicans, Fishback is a long-shot candidate c…
Raw Story · Today
James Fishback’s Byron Donalds Allegation Is ‘Absolutely False’—DOJ
A Department of Justice spokesperson confirmed to Newsweek that Republican Representative Byron Donalds is not under investigation after James Fishback, his rival in the Florida governor primary, claimed an investigation into Representative Cory Mills has exp…
Biztoc.com · Yesterday
'Clown-show' free-for-all playing out in crowded MAGA primary
A wide-open scramble for a safe Republican House seat in Southwest Florida has drawn a colorful cast of characters vying for the MAGA crown.Ten candidates are competing for the seat being vacated by Rep. Byron Donalds, who's running for governor, and remarkab…
Raw Story · Yesterday