Democratic
David Jolly
Major-party general-election nominee.
VotePredictor forecast
Byron Donalds favored
Lean R · predicted margin R+5.1
76%
chance to win
Poll-driven model · 14 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology →
Republican
Byron Donalds
Sitting U.S. Representative. Voting record and biography →
Other listed candidates
- Dean Abrams · Independent
- Charles Burkett · Independent
- Jeffrey Datto · Independent
- Moe Dimanche · Independent
- Scott Jewett · Libertarian
- Frank Russo · Independent
Polls
| Pollster | Date | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| St. Pete Polls | 2026-09-17 | R+0.1 |
| Change Research | 2026-09-09 | D+3.0 |
| Targoz Market Research | 2026-07-26 | R+7.0 |
| University of North Florida | 2026-07-17 | R+5.0 |
| Change Research | 2026-05-16 | D+4.0 |
| Cherry Communications | 2026-05-09 | R+8.0 |
| The Public Sentiment Institute | 2026-04-27 | EVEN |
| Stetson University | 2026-04-13 | R+7.0 |
| Echelon Insights | 2026-04-09 | R+6.0 |
| MDW Communications | 2026-04-03 | R+0.7 |
| Emerson College | 2026-03-31 | R+4.8 |
| University of North Florida | 2026-03-02 | R+6.0 |
| Public Sentiment Institute | 2026-02-20 | D+6.5 |
| Targoz Market Research | 2026-02-16 | R+2.0 |
Other forecasts
Cook
Likely R
as of Sep. 17, 2026
IE
Lean R
as of Sep. 17., 2026
Sabato
Likely R
as of Sep. 3, 2026
RCP
Lean R
as of Sep. 17, 2026
Fox
Solid R
as of Sep. 22, 2026
Silver
Lean R
as of Sep. 17, 2026
DDHQ
Lean R
as of Sep. 17, 2026
Published ratings are categorical, not probabilities, and remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Past results
Every Florida election for governor we hold a result for.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Jolly declines to debate Donalds after both candidates accept multiple invites
TAMPA, Fla. (WFLA) — Democratic nominee for Florida Governor David Jolly has declined to debate his Republican opponent Byron Donalds, Jolly’s campaign announced Sunday. Both campaigns announced on Friday that they had accepted multiple debate invitations, bu…
Freerepublic.com · Yesterday
New Poll Shows Byron Donalds, David Jolly Deadlocked in Florida Race
Republican Byron Donalds and Democrat David Jolly are neck-and-neck in the Florida governor’s race, according to a new St. Pete Polls survey, with just 47 days until Election Day. The race will determine who succeeds term-limited Republican Governor Ron DeSan…
Biztoc.com · September 18, 2026
Florida Gubernatorial Nominees David Jolly and Byron Donalds to Headline WLRN's Inaugural Sunshine Economy Summit
Presented by the Greater Fort Lauderdale Alliance, the September 23 event brings business, government and community leaders together to examine South Florida's economic future. FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla., Sept. 10, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- WLRN will bring Florida's De…
PRNewswire · September 10, 2026
A breathtaking scandal has engulfed a red state after an explosive secret report leaked
Just when you thought state politics could not possibly get sleazier, Hope Florida comes roaring back from the dead, putrid yet powerful, casting a light on the breathtaking arrogance and corruption of Florida’s government.Gov. Ron DeSantis, Attorney General …
Raw Story · September 8, 2026
Democrat David Jolly promotes tourist tax reform as he runs for Florida governor
The Democrat in the race to be Florida's next governor thinks hotel taxes can be spent differently — so the massive source of money can pay for more than just tourism marketing and promotion, and local communities can have more latitude to pay for local needs…
Biztoc.com · September 6, 2026
Florida Governor Candidate Sells 2 Stocks, Buys Tech Underperformer
Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.) disclosed his most recent stock trades. Here's what the Florida Governor candidate bought and sold.
Biztoc.com · September 18, 2026
How Keisha Lance Bottoms and David Crowley Can Make Political History
Many Americans who live in suburbs and rural areas don’t like the big, left-leaning metropolitan areas nearby. And while it’s hard to say exactly how much that anti-urban resentment is tied to race, we know that big cities often have high percentages of peopl…
The New Republic · September 14, 2026
Furious Trump ally suspects secret memo buried jihad talk at GOP convention
Conspiracy theorist Laura Loomer, a close ally of President Donald Trump's, visited Dallas this week to berate Republican convention organizers over an alleged plot to cover up condemnations of violent Islamic jihadists.Loomer made the accusation in a series …
Raw Story · September 10, 2026