Democratic
Rob Sand
Major-party general-election nominee.
← all governor races
Rob Sand vs. Zach Lahn: Iowa governor election, 2026
Rob Sand vs. Zach Lahn. Incumbent retiring. Democratic gain..
VotePredictor forecast (our model)
Rob Sand favored
Likely D
92%
chance to win
D+5.4
predicted margin
Poll-driven model · 20 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology → · Today's article: every poll and forecast →
Republican
Zach Lahn
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
The polls behind it
29 polls · 20 in today's forecast · newest firstDimmed polls are more than 61 days old. They stay on the record, but today's forecast no longer counts them. Each pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain). VotePredictor adjusted (“Our adj.” on small screens) is not a poll: it is our correction of that poll, for its pollster's record in past elections and for registered-voter or all-adult samples. It is the number our forecast reads.
PollsterDateSampleMarginOur adj.VotePredictor adjusted
Other forecasts
VotePredictor (ours)
D 92%
a probability from our model
Cook
Lean D (flip)≈ D 75%
as of Oct. 29, 2026
DDHQ
Lean D (flip)≈ D 75%
as of Nov. 3, 2026
Fox
Lean D (flip)≈ D 75%
as of Nov. 1, 2026
IE
Lean D (flip)≈ D 75%
as of Oct. 29, 2026
NBC
Lean D (flip)≈ D 75%
as of Nov. 3, 2026
RCP
Lean D (flip)≈ D 75%
as of Nov. 1, 2026
Sabato
Lean D (flip)≈ D 75%
as of Nov. 2, 2026
Silver
Likely D (flip)≈ D 90%
as of Nov. 3, 2026
The source we collect records each outlet's rating category, not a probability; some of these outlets run models with their own numbers on their sites. The ≈ figure is the standard conversion of the category (Toss-up 50%, Tilt 60%, Lean 75%, Likely 90%, Solid 99%), the one our scorecard grades them on, not a number they published. They remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Independent models
Win probabilities published by independent statistical models, shown with credit as their terms allow: Who Shows Up (whoshowsup.net), by Kurt Wirth. These are their numbers, not ratings converted by us, and not VotePredictor's. The better-known model forecasters (Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Silver Bulletin, the Economist) don't permit republishing their probabilities, so they appear above by rating only.
Past results
Every Iowa election for governor we hold a result for.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Grassley denies rumors he'll resign in the lame-duck session
Republican Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley, 93, has refuted rumors he will step down during the lame-duck session to prevent incoming Democratic Gov. Rob Sand from having an opportunity to appoint his successor. “He remains committed to delivering for the people of …
Biztoc.com · Yesterday
Millennial Candidates Helped Democrats Win the Senate, and Rob Sand Broke the GOP’s Hold on Iowa
Georgia reelected Jon Ossoff, 39, and Michigan elected Abdul El-Sayed, 42, as Democrats took back the Senate in the 2026 midterms. In Iowa, Rob Sand, 44, won the governor’s race, becoming the…
Thoughtcatalog.com · Yesterday
Iowa’s New Governor Was a Prada Boy
During his college years, Iowa Governor-elect Rob Sand worked as a male model and walked runways in Paris and Milan.
The Cut · Yesterday
Iowa Governor-Elect Rob Sand Had a Modeling Career Long Before Politics, Including a Prada Runway Show
The former Iowa state auditor walked European runways in the early 2000s, joining a surprising list of American politicians with fashion résumés.
WWD · Yesterday
Grassley Won’t Retire Early
“A blue wave in Iowa won’t force Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) into an early retirement,” the Washington Examiner reports. “A spokesperson for Grassley, 93, told the Washington Examiner on Wednesday that he plans to serve out the remainder of his term after stat…
Politicalwire.com · Yesterday
Democrat Rob Sand Defeats Republican Zach Lahn in Iowa Governor's Race
Democratic Iowa State Auditor Rob Sand won Iowa's gubernatorial election Tuesday, defeating Republican Zach Lahn in the race to succeed outgoing Gov. Kim Reynolds (R). The post Democrat Rob Sand Defeats Republican Zach Lahn in Iowa Governor’s Race appeared fi…
Breitbart News · November 4, 2026
Rob Sand Said He Wasn’t Trying to Turn Iowa Blue. Well, He Did.
On Tuesday, Rob Sand became the first Democrat since 2006 to win the governor’s race in Iowa, defeating ultra-MAHA conservative Zach Lahn and powering a Democratic resurgence in a state that had been drifting away from the party for years. As I wrote in a pro…
Mother Jones · November 4, 2026
Democrat Rob Sand wins Iowa governor's race, defeating Zach Lahn
CBS News projects Rob Sand will win the Iowa governor's office, the first Democrat to be elected to the governor's mansion since 2006 and defeating Zach Lahn.
CBS News · November 4, 2026