Democratic
JB Pritzker
Major-party general-election nominee.
← all governor races
JB Pritzker vs. Darren Bailey: Illinois governor election, 2026
JB Pritzker vs. Darren Bailey. Incumbent re-elected..
VotePredictor forecast (our model)
JB Pritzker favored
Safe D
99%
chance to win
D+19.1
predicted margin
Poll-driven model · 4 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology → · Today's article: every poll and forecast →
Republican
Darren Bailey
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Collin Corbett · Independent
Polls
The polls behind it
4 polls · newest firstEach pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain). VotePredictor adjusted (“Our adj.” on small screens) is not a poll: it is our correction of that poll, for its pollster's record in past elections and for registered-voter or all-adult samples. It is the number our forecast reads.
PollsterDateSampleMarginOur adj.VotePredictor adjusted
Other forecasts
VotePredictor (ours)
D 99%
a probability from our model
Cook
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Oct. 29, 2026
DDHQ
Safe D≈ D 99%
as of Nov. 3, 2026
Fox
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Nov. 1, 2026
IE
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Oct. 29, 2026
NBC
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Nov. 3, 2026
RCP
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Nov. 1, 2026
Sabato
Safe D≈ D 99%
as of Nov. 2, 2026
Silver
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Nov. 3, 2026
The source we collect records each outlet's rating category, not a probability; some of these outlets run models with their own numbers on their sites. The ≈ figure is the standard conversion of the category (Toss-up 50%, Tilt 60%, Lean 75%, Likely 90%, Solid 99%), the one our scorecard grades them on, not a number they published. They remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Independent models
Win probabilities published by independent statistical models, shown with credit as their terms allow: Who Shows Up (whoshowsup.net), by Kurt Wirth. These are their numbers, not ratings converted by us, and not VotePredictor's. The better-known model forecasters (Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Silver Bulletin, the Economist) don't permit republishing their probabilities, so they appear above by rating only.
Past results
Every Illinois election for governor we hold a result for.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Democrats set sights on Elon Musk probe after midterm wins, but Pritzker draws a surprising line
Rep. Jamie Raskin, D-Md., and Democratic Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker are calling for an investigation into the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), previously led by Elon Musk, as talks have heated up among Democrats to launch a probe into the multibilli…
Freerepublic.com · Yesterday
Trump Names 'Hate-Filled Extremist' Stephen Miller as New Chief of Staff
Stephen Miller, the chief architect of the Trump administration's widely decried mass deportation policy, has received a promotion to be the next White House chief of staff.In a Friday social media post, President Donald Trump announced that Miller next week …
Common Dreams · November 6, 2026
How The Oligarchs Lost in the Midterms
If you want to know who the biggest midterms loser is, that is, of course, Donald Trump. But the second-biggest loser is the oligarchy.Democrats aren’t strangers to the oligarchy, especially in Silicon Valley, but lately even tech billionaires heavily favor R…
The New Republic · November 6, 2026
Illinois Governor Election 2026 Live Results: JB Pritzker Wins
Follow 2026 Illinois governor election results as voters decide which candidate will take over next term.
NBC News · November 5, 2026
'I Don't Worry About It at All:' JB Pritzker Dismisses Trump's Insults, Says They Won't Stop Him From…
Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker says Trump’s insults won’t deter him from speaking out against the administration.
Biztoc.com · November 5, 2026
Illinois Governor's Race: JB Pritzker defeats Darren Bailey, NBC News projects - NBC 5 Chicago
Illinois Governor's Race: JB Pritzker defeats Darren Bailey, NBC News projectsNBC 5 Chicago 2026 Election Day news: JB Pritzker defeats Darren Bailey in Illinois governor race rematch, ABC News projectsABC7 Chicago Democratic Gov. JB Pritzker wins a third ter…
Slashdot.org · November 4, 2026
Democratic Gov. JB Pritzker wins a third term in Illinois - NBC News
Democratic Gov. JB Pritzker wins a third term in IllinoisNBC News Illinois U.S. Senate Election Live Results 2026AP News JB Pritzker wins historic third term as Illinois governorAxios 2026 news: JB Pritzker, Darren Bailey make final push for votes as Illinois…
Slashdot.org · November 4, 2026
JB Pritzker says his reelection as Illinois governor shows hope is winning out over fear
2026 ELECTION COVERAGE: Watch Live | Poll Closing Times | All Live Results | Live Updates | Live Fact Check Democrat JB Pritzker won election Tuesday as governor of Illinois, defeating Republican Darren Bailey. "It looks like maybe, just maybe, something is s…
Biztoc.com · November 4, 2026