Democratic
Maura Healey
Major-party general-election nominee.
← all governor races
Maura Healey vs. Mike Minogue: Massachusetts governor election, 2026
Maura Healey vs. Mike Minogue. Incumbent re-elected..
VotePredictor forecast (our model)
Maura Healey favored
Safe D
99%
chance to win
D+22.3
predicted margin
Poll-driven model · 6 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology → · Today's article: every poll and forecast →
Republican
Mike Minogue
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Andrea C. James · Independent
Polls
The polls behind it
13 polls · 6 in today's forecast · newest firstDimmed polls are more than 61 days old. They stay on the record, but today's forecast no longer counts them. Each pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain). VotePredictor adjusted (“Our adj.” on small screens) is not a poll: it is our correction of that poll, for its pollster's record in past elections and for registered-voter or all-adult samples. It is the number our forecast reads.
PollsterDateSampleMarginOur adj.VotePredictor adjusted
Other forecasts
VotePredictor (ours)
D 99%
a probability from our model
Cook
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Oct. 29, 2026
DDHQ
Safe D≈ D 99%
as of Nov. 3, 2026
Fox
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Nov. 1, 2026
IE
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Oct. 29, 2026
NBC
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Nov. 3, 2026
RCP
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Nov. 1, 2026
Sabato
Safe D≈ D 99%
as of Nov. 2, 2026
Silver
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Nov. 3, 2026
The source we collect records each outlet's rating category, not a probability; some of these outlets run models with their own numbers on their sites. The ≈ figure is the standard conversion of the category (Toss-up 50%, Tilt 60%, Lean 75%, Likely 90%, Solid 99%), the one our scorecard grades them on, not a number they published. They remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Independent models
Win probabilities published by independent statistical models, shown with credit as their terms allow: Who Shows Up (whoshowsup.net), by Kurt Wirth. These are their numbers, not ratings converted by us, and not VotePredictor's. The better-known model forecasters (Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Silver Bulletin, the Economist) don't permit republishing their probabilities, so they appear above by rating only.
Past results
Every Massachusetts election for governor we hold a result for.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Mass. Gov. Healey defeats Republican Mike Minogue — Wins second term
Massachusetts Gov. Maura Healey coasted to a second term on Tuesday night, handily turning aside a challenge by a Republican candidate who poured millions of dollars of his own fortune into his campaign.
The Sun Chronicle · November 4, 2026
Pennsylvania's Josh Shapiro projected to win reelection
CNN projected that Democratic governors JB Pritzker of Illinois, Wes Moore of Maryland, Josh Shapiro (pictured) of Pennsylvania, and Maura Healey of Massachusetts would win reelection.The calls came s...
Biztoc.com · November 4, 2026
House Judiciary Committee releases new report on “dangerous consequences” of sanctuary policies in MA and Boston
The House Judiciary Committee has released an election eve report on the “consequences of sanctuary policies” in the City of Boston as well as Massachusetts as Mayor Michelle Wu, Gov. Maura Healey and the supermajority Democratic state legislature continue to…
Freerepublic.com · November 3, 2026
Mass. National Guard activated as wildfire crosses New York border
A wildfire that began in New York has crossed into Western Massachusetts, prompting Gov. Maura Healey to activate the Massachusetts National Guard to help firefighters battle the blaze.
The Sun Chronicle · October 27, 2026
GOP candidate arrested on driving under the influence charge after rollover crash: report
The Republican candidate for lieutenant governor of Massachusetts was arrested late Saturday after a crash that flipped his car and damaged several parked vehicles, police said.New Bedford City Councilor Shawn Oliver, 42, was charged with operating under the …
Raw Story · October 18, 2026
After running mate’s arrest, Mass. GOP gubernatorial nominee says he will govern alone if elected
Massachusetts Republican gubernatorial nominee Mike Minogue said that if he is elected in November, he will serve without a lieutenant governor after his running mate was arrested on suspicion of driving drunk. Shawn Oliver suspended his campaign for lieutena…
Biztoc.com · October 20, 2026
Mass. Lt. Gov Candidate Booked On DUI Charge
Just a couple of weeks before the Gubernatorial Election in Massachusetts, this was probably the last thing Mike Minogue wanted to hear, his running mate going on a bender and ending up in a jail cell. Oh well. Source: Boston Herald Republican Lt. Gov. candid…
Crooksandliars.com · October 19, 2026
Massachusetts GOP Lt. Governor Candidate Arrested
Massachusetts candidate for lieutenant governor Shawn Oliver (R) was arrested on a charge of operating under the influence of alcohol, the New Bedford Light reports. Mike Minogue (R), the GOP candidate for governor, has asked Oliver to immediately suspend his…
Politicalwire.com · October 18, 2026