Democratic
Wes Moore
Major-party general-election nominee.
← all governor races
Wes Moore vs. Dan Cox: Maryland governor election, 2026
Wes Moore vs. Dan Cox. Incumbent re-elected..
VotePredictor forecast (our model)
Wes Moore favored
Safe D
99%
chance to win
D+27.0
predicted margin
Poll-driven model · 2 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology → · Today's article: every poll and forecast →
Republican
Dan Cox
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Andy Ellis · Green
- Cathy White · Working Class
Polls
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstEach pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain). VotePredictor adjusted (“Our adj.” on small screens) is not a poll: it is our correction of that poll, for its pollster's record in past elections and for registered-voter or all-adult samples. It is the number our forecast reads.
PollsterDateSampleMarginOur adj.VotePredictor adjusted
Other forecasts
VotePredictor (ours)
D 99%
a probability from our model
Cook
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Oct. 29, 2026
DDHQ
Safe D≈ D 99%
as of Nov. 3, 2026
Fox
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Nov. 1, 2026
IE
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Oct. 29, 2026
NBC
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Nov. 3, 2026
RCP
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Nov. 1, 2026
Sabato
Safe D≈ D 99%
as of Nov. 2, 2026
Silver
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Nov. 3, 2026
The source we collect records each outlet's rating category, not a probability; some of these outlets run models with their own numbers on their sites. The ≈ figure is the standard conversion of the category (Toss-up 50%, Tilt 60%, Lean 75%, Likely 90%, Solid 99%), the one our scorecard grades them on, not a number they published. They remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Independent models
Win probabilities published by independent statistical models, shown with credit as their terms allow: Who Shows Up (whoshowsup.net), by Kurt Wirth. These are their numbers, not ratings converted by us, and not VotePredictor's. The better-known model forecasters (Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Silver Bulletin, the Economist) don't permit republishing their probabilities, so they appear above by rating only.
Past results
Every Maryland election for governor we hold a result for.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Why Black Governors Should Follow Wes Moore’s Lead on Education
On Nov. 3, Democrats had historic wins in governors’ races around the country. And because no president has the authority to veto a governor’s state budget, every new Democratic governor is a rare opportunity for students of color. Governors propose budgets a…
The Root · Yesterday
Maryland Governor Election 2026 Live Results: Wes Moore Wins
Follow 2026 Maryland governor election results as voters decide which candidate will take over next term.
NBC News · Yesterday
Maryland Gov. Wes Moore: Voters want leaders 'ready to disrupt the status quo'
Maryland Governor Wes Moore joins CNBC's "Squawk Box" to discuss the key takeaways from the Democrats' seismic victory in ...
Biztoc.com · November 4, 2026
Maryland Voters Hand Democrats Huge Win on Redistricting
Maryland voters approved a ballot measure Tuesday amending the state’s Constitution to allow Democratic-led congressional redistricting. The measure, known as Question 3, passed 60 percent to 40 percent, with 77 percent of votes counted.The measure does not e…
The New Republic · November 4, 2026
Indian-origin Aruna Miller wins re-election as Maryland lieutenant governor
In a significant electoral event, Aruna Miller was re-elected as Maryland's lieutenant governor in the 2026 midterm elections, partnering with Governor Wes Moore. She successfully outmaneuvered Republican Rob Krop, enhancing Indian-American representation in …
The Times of India · November 4, 2026
Maryland Democrat Gov. Wes Moore Wins Reelection
Maryland Democrat Gov. Wes Moore has been predictably elected to another term over Republican candidate Dan Cox, with the Associated Press calling the race early on election night. The post Maryland Democrat Gov. Wes Moore Wins Reelection appeared first on Br…
Breitbart News · November 4, 2026
Maryland Election: Wes Moore’s red line promise faces voter scrutiny
Wes Moore heads into Maryland’s Nov. 3 governor’s election with a wide polling lead over Republican Dan Cox, but without a direct answer to the question critics keep raising. Will he serve all four years? In September 2025, Moore told NBC’s Meet the Press he …
Rolling Out · October 31, 2026
Black Candidates on the Ballot: Midterm Races To Watch
The November 2026 midterms are just as much about Black political power as they are about which party will control Congress. Black candidates across the country are gearing up to make history, proving that representation and who gets a seat at the table matte…
The Root · October 20, 2026