Democratic
Amy Klobuchar
Sitting U.S. Senator. Voting record and biography →
← all governor races
Amy Klobuchar vs. Lisa Demuth: Minnesota governor election, 2026
Amy Klobuchar vs. Lisa Demuth. Incumbent retired. Democratic hold..
VotePredictor forecast (our model)
Amy Klobuchar favored
Safe D
99%
chance to win
D+10.9
predicted margin
Poll-driven model · 12 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology → · Today's article: every poll and forecast →
Republican
Lisa Demuth
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Amy Klobuchar · DFL
- Steven Young · Green
Polls
The polls behind it
17 polls · 12 in today's forecast · newest firstDimmed polls are more than 61 days old. They stay on the record, but today's forecast no longer counts them. Each pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain). VotePredictor adjusted (“Our adj.” on small screens) is not a poll: it is our correction of that poll, for its pollster's record in past elections and for registered-voter or all-adult samples. It is the number our forecast reads.
PollsterDateSampleMarginOur adj.VotePredictor adjusted
Other forecasts
VotePredictor (ours)
D 99%
a probability from our model
Cook
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Oct. 29, 2026
DDHQ
Likely D≈ D 90%
as of Nov. 3, 2026
Fox
Likely D≈ D 90%
as of Nov. 1, 2026
IE
Likely D≈ D 90%
as of Oct. 29, 2026
NBC
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Nov. 3, 2026
RCP
Likely D≈ D 90%
as of Nov. 1, 2026
Sabato
Safe D≈ D 99%
as of Nov. 2, 2026
Silver
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Nov. 3, 2026
The source we collect records each outlet's rating category, not a probability; some of these outlets run models with their own numbers on their sites. The ≈ figure is the standard conversion of the category (Toss-up 50%, Tilt 60%, Lean 75%, Likely 90%, Solid 99%), the one our scorecard grades them on, not a number they published. They remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Independent models
Win probabilities published by independent statistical models, shown with credit as their terms allow: Who Shows Up (whoshowsup.net), by Kurt Wirth. These are their numbers, not ratings converted by us, and not VotePredictor's. The better-known model forecasters (Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Silver Bulletin, the Economist) don't permit republishing their probabilities, so they appear above by rating only.
Past results
Every Minnesota election for governor we hold a result for.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
[Josh Blackman] Senator-Governor Klobuchar and the Problem of the Received Wisdom
[This post is co-authored with Professor Seth Barrett Tillman.] On November 3, 2026, U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar (Minnesota-Democratic Party) was...
Reason · Today
Amy Klobuchar's Senate Exit: List of Democrats Most Likely to Replace Her
With Democratic U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar set to become Minnesota's governor in January, attention is already turning to who could be appointed to fill the Senate seat she will leave behind. Klobuchar defeated Republican state House Speaker Lisa Demuth with …
Biztoc.com · Yesterday
Why Diverse Leadership Makes America Strong
November’s historic barrier-breakers didn’t win because identity replaced qualifications; they won because voters believed they could deliver. But the real lesson of this election goes beyond proving diversity isn’t the enemy of merit. When our leaders reflec…
The Root · Yesterday
Minnesota Governor Election 2026 Live Results: Amy Klobuchar Wins
Follow 2026 Minnesota governor election results as voters decide which candidate will take over next term.
NBC News · Yesterday
Klobuchar, presents no obstacle to DSA health care agenda
Governor-elect Amy Klobuchar now faces a clear test from her own party’s left wing on many fronts, but certainly a contender for House File One (considered the top priority) would be the current House File 1812, the Minnesota Health Plan (also called “MNCare …
Americanexperiment.org · November 4, 2026
Sen. Amy Klobuchar Wins Minnesota Governor's Seat
Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) has won the Minnesota gubernatorial election, beating Lisa Demuth, the Republican speaker of the state house. The post Sen. Amy Klobuchar Wins Minnesota Governor’s Seat appeared first on Breitbart.
Breitbart News · November 4, 2026
Amy Klobuchar Will Be Minnesota's Next Governor
Democratic US Sen. Amy Klobuchar was elected Minnesota governor on Tuesday, defeating Republican state House Speaker Lisa Demuth in a race shaped by a widespread fraud scandal in state government, the AP reports. Klobuchar will replace outgoing Gov. Tim Walz,…
Newser · November 4, 2026
Sen. Amy Klobuchar wins Minnesota governor's race, CBS News projects
Democratic U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar defeated Republican state House Speaker Lisa Demuth. She will succeed Gov. Tim Walz, who announced in January he would not seek a third term.
CBS News · November 4, 2026