Illinois District 10 election, 2026

Brad Schneider vs. Carl Lambrecht.

VotePredictor forecast

Brad Schneider favored

Safe D · predicted margin D+36.8

100%

chance to win

2024 presidential lean

D+23.0

2026 national environment

D+6.3

Model uncertainty

±6.9 points

Fundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.

Democratic

Brad Schneider

Incumbent representative for IL-10. Voting record, ideology and biography →

Republican

Carl Lambrecht

Major-party general-election nominee.

Polls

No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for IL-10. The forecast above uses fundamentals only.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for IL-10; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Cook Political Report

View House ratings ↗

Inside Elections

View House ratings ↗

Sabato's Crystal Ball

View House analysis ↗

Past results

Every election in Illinois's 10th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.

YearWinnerMargin

2022Brad Schneider(D)D+26.0

2016Brad Schneider(D)D+5.2

2014Robert Dold(R)R+2.6

2012Brad Schneider(D)D+1.3

2010Robert Dold(R)R+2.2

2008Mark Kirk(R)R+5.1

2006Mark Kirk(R)R+6.8

2000Mark Kirk(R)R+2.4

Candidate news

Every Democrat Who Voted to Defund Schools That Boycott Israel

On Thursday, 33 Democrats joined Republicans to pass a law that would take federal funding away from academic institutions involved in any kind of boycott of or divestment from Israel. The legislation passed 237–169.The Protect Economic and Academic Freedom A…

The New Republic · September 3, 2026

How one moderate Democratic leader is bracing for Israel politics in the next Congress

Rep. Brad Schneider, the leader of the House’s centrist New Democrat Coalition, is trying to understand how his party became so divided on Israel. Earlier this week, over 100 House Democrats voted for a Republican-authored amendment to a State Department fun…

Biztoc.com · July 17, 2026

Bessent flips script on shouting Democrat: 'No wonder people are leaving' his blue state

Treasury Secretary Bessent clashed with Rep. Brad Schneider during a heated House Ways and Means hearing over Trump tariffs and Illinois outmigration.

Fox News · June 5, 2026

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confronted over Iran war during hearing

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent became defensive when Rep. Brad Schneider (D-IL) challenged his claims about the Iran war being over.During a House Ways and Means Committee hearing, Schneider asked Bessent whether Iran still poses threats to Israel and Gul…

Raw Story · June 5, 2026

Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗

Nearby in the directory: IL-1 · IL-11