Democratic
Rebecca Bennett
Major-party general-election nominee.
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New Jersey District 7 election, 2026
Rebecca Bennett vs. Thomas Kean Jr.. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Rebecca Bennett favored
Lean D · predicted margin D+4.4
80%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+1.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
2, averaging D+4.5Forecast spread
±5.3 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). The 2 district polls are blended in by inverse variance, about 54% of the weight: the model alone said D+4.4.
Republican
Thomas Kean Jr.
Incumbent representative for NJ-7. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Other listed candidates
- Seamus O'Toole · Independent
Polls
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstEach pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain).
PollsterDateSampleMargin
These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 54% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Rebecca BennettDEM$8.8M raised
Spent $7.7MCash on hand $1.1M15% from donors under $200Self-funded $327
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$3.1M
- Self-Employed & Freelance$586k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$298k
- Legal & Professional Services$188k
- Technology & Communications$141k
States
- NJ$2.6M
- CA$894k
- NY$773k
- MA$342k
- DC$202k
Thomas Kean Jr.REP · incumbent$6.1M raised
Spent $4.8MCash on hand $1.4M5% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
- GROW THE MAJORITY$795k
- EMMER MAJORITY BUILDERS$320k
- DEFEND OUR MAJORITY$316k
- KEAN VICTORY FUND$308k
- LALOTA VICTORY FUND$26k
Industries
- Retired$626k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$265k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$149k
- Legal & Professional Services$76k
- Homemaker$60k
States
- NJ$1.3M
- FL$246k
- NY$160k
- CA$103k
- VA$67k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for NJ-7; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in New Jersey's 7th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Republican Who Disappeared From Congress for Months Set To Disappear Again After Losing Reelection Bid
Rep. Tom Kean Jr., who disappeared from Congress for three months this year with virtually no explanation, lost his reelection bid on Tuesday night. The post Republican Who Disappeared From Congress for Months Set To Disappear Again After Losing Reelection B…
Mediaite · November 4, 2026
Rebecca Bennett Unseats Tom Kean Jr. in New Jersey House Race - The New York Times
Rebecca Bennett Unseats Tom Kean Jr. in New Jersey House RaceThe New York Times New Jersey U.S. House Midterm Election 2026: Live ResultsNBC News Trump Bedminster golf course falls to Dems as Republicans lose key House seatFox News Democrats flip US Represent…
Slashdot.org · November 4, 2026
GOP Rep. Tom Kean loses re-election bid after monthslong absence from Congress this year - NBC News
GOP Rep. Tom Kean loses re-election bid after monthslong absence from Congress this yearNBC News New Jersey U.S. House Midterm Election 2026: Live ResultsNBC News New Jersey Seventh Congressional District 2026: Live Election Results, Kean vs. BennettThe New Y…
Slashdot.org · November 4, 2026
Democrats flip New Jersey House seat held by Republican Tom Kean
Democrat Rebecca Bennett, a former Navy helicopter pilot, on Tuesday defeated two-term Rep. Tom Kean, who missed four months of votes in Washington this year as he underwent treatment for depression, a diagnosis he did not disclose until his return.
Biztoc.com · November 4, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗