Utah District 2 election, 2026

Peter Crosby vs. Blake Moore on a newly enacted 2026 district map.

VotePredictor forecast

Blake Moore favored

Safe R · predicted margin R+33.8

100%

chance to win

2024 presidential lean

R+29.9

2026 national environment

D+6.3

Model uncertainty

±6.9 points

Fundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.

Democratic

Peter Crosby

Major-party general-election nominee.

Republican

Blake Moore

Major-party general-election nominee.

Other listed candidates

Carlton Bowen · Independent American
Daniel Cottam · Libertarian
Robert Moesinger · Independent

Polls

No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for UT-2. The forecast above uses fundamentals only.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for UT-2; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Cook Political Report

View House ratings ↗

Inside Elections

View House ratings ↗

Sabato's Crystal Ball

View House analysis ↗

Past results

Every election in Utah's 2nd district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.

YearWinnerMargin

2020Chris Stewart(R)R+22.4

2018Chris Stewart(R)R+17.2

2014Chris Stewart(R)R+28.3

2012Chris Stewart(R)R+28.7

2010Jim Matheson(D)D+4.4

2008Jim Matheson(D)D+28.9

2006Jim Matheson(D)D+21.7

2004Jim Matheson(D)D+11.5

2002Jim Matheson(D)D+0.7

1998Merrill Cook(R)R+9.3

Candidate news

No recent verified candidate stories are available in the site's news feed for this race yet.

Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗

Nearby in the directory: UT-1 · UT-3