Democratic
Peter Crosby
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Utah District 2 election, 2026
Peter Crosby vs. Blake Moore on a newly enacted 2026 district map. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Blake Moore favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+12.4
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+29.92026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
3, averaging R+1.3Forecast spread
±5.3 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). The 3 district polls are blended in by inverse variance, about 54% of the weight: the model alone said R+25.4.
Republican
Blake Moore
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Carlton Bowen · Independent American
- Daniel Cottam · Libertarian
- Robert Moesinger · Independent
Polls
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstEach pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain).
PollsterDateSampleMargin
These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 54% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Blake MooreREP · incumbent$2.8M raised
Spent $2.7MCash on hand $1.6M0% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$107k
- Retired$90k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$70k
- Legal & Professional Services$62k
- Government Relations and Lobbying Services$39k
States
- UT$517k
- VA$112k
- CA$94k
- NY$53k
- DC$52k
Peter CrosbyDEM$154k raised
Spent $101kCash on hand $48k40% from donors under $200Self-funded $175
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$43k
- Retail, Food & Consumer Goods$8k
- Retired$4k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$4k
- Education & Academia$2k
States
- UT$86k
- VA$2k
- WY$1k
- AZ$250
Robert MoesingerIND$12k raised
Spent $8kCash on hand −$5560% from donors under $200Self-funded $306
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$5k
- Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals$4k
- Technology & Communications$500
States
- UT$10k
- MT$1k
- AZ$300
Carlton BowenIAP$7k raised
Spent $6kCash on hand $1k13% from donors under $200Self-funded $5k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for UT-2; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Utah's 2nd district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
No recent verified candidate stories are available in the site's news feed for this race yet.
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗