Democratic
Mary Peltola
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates: Carol Hafner, William Hunt, David Leslie.
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Alaska U.S. Senate election, 2026
Mary Peltola vs. Dan S. Sullivan. Incumbent running.
VotePredictor forecast
Dan S. Sullivan favored
Toss-up · predicted margin R+2.5
60%
chance to win
Poll-driven model · 11 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology →
Republican
Dan S. Sullivan
Incumbent. Voting record and biography →
Other listed candidates: Dustin Darden, Fred Grauberger, Gerald Heikes, Richard Mayers, Heather McElwain, Dan J. Sullivan.
Other listed candidates
- Richard Grayson · Green
- Sidney Hill · Independent
- Scott Kohlhaas · Libertarian
Polls
| Pollster | Date | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena University | 2026-06-29 | R+2.0 |
| New York Times/Siena University[63] | 2026-06-29 | R+2.0 |
| New York Times/Siena University[58] | 2026-06-29 | R+2.0 |
| Alaska Survey Research | 2026-06-07 | D+5.2 |
| Race to the WH[57] | 2026-05-27 | D+3.9 |
| Race to the WH[62] | 2026-05-27 | D+0.4 |
| Alaska Survey Research | 2026-05-17 | D+4.6 |
| Alaska Survey Research | 2026-04-19 | D+3.5 |
| Alaska Survey Research | 2026-03-22 | D+4.8 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2026-01-17 | D+2.0 |
| Alaska Survey Research | 2026-01-11 | D+1.6 |
Other forecasts
Cook
Tossup
IE
Lean R
Sabato
Tossup
WH
Tossup
Econ
Tossup
RCP
Tossup
DDHQ
Tossup
Fox
Tossup
VoteHub
Tossup
FPO
Tossup
ST
Tossup
Published ratings are categorical, not probabilities, and remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Candidate news
The 2026 Senate Map: The Democratic Path Runs Thru Michigan
David Shuster showed up to this week’s Amped Up angry, and it took 90 seconds to see why. Trump called into Fox & Friends and started screaming profanities on air b/c Iran declined his bombing “pause”—what Cliff called the water-break theory of war. Meanwhil…
Crooksandliars.com · August 3, 2026
Alaska Senate Candidate Backed Income Tax Plan Critics Say Would Hit Lower-Income Earners Harder Than Millionaires
By Fred Lucas, The Daily Signal | July 22, 2026 Alaska Senate Democrat nominee Mary Peltola once voted in the state Legislature for an income tax proposal that critics called regressive because its highest earners would have paid lower tax rates than many wor…
Biztoc.com · July 24, 2026
Transcript: GOPers Quietly Fear It’s All Falling Apart for Trump
The following is a lightly edited transcript of the July 23 episode of the Daily Blast podcast. Listen to it here.Greg Sargent: This is The Daily Blast from The New Republic, produced and presented by the DSR Network. I’m your host, Greg Sargent.A Republican …
The New Republic · July 23, 2026
Meet Dan Sullivan, the retired schoolteacher running for office who insists he’s not trolling sitting Senator Dan Sullivan
On Independence Day, as second-term Republican Dan Sullivan and his chief rival in Alaska’s U.S. Senate race Democrat Mary Peltola headlined parades, the other Dan Sullivan seeking the seat was happily on the sidelines of festivities in this small fishing com…
Biztoc.com · July 13, 2026
Alaska’s Dan Sullivan tells 'Ruthless' he will overcome Dem effort to ‘steal’ his name
Alaska Sen. Dan Sullivan sits down with the "Ruthless Podcast" to discuss his critical re-election fight that could determine control of the U.S. Senate.
Fox News · July 23, 2026
GOP Senator recites Declaration of Independence — next to a Confederate flag
When Sen. Dan Sullivan, R-Alaska, took the stage during the recent July Fourth weekend to recite the Declaration of Independence, there was one notable image just steps away: the Confederate battle flag. Sullivan’s Senate campaign posted pictures on Facebook …
Biztoc.com · July 20, 2026
To the GOP, he's a sham candidate. At home, he’s Mr. Sullivan, ex-teacher and Alaska Senate hopeful
Many longtime residents of the small Alaska fishing community of Petersburg say they opposed efforts by the state to keep a local man named Dan Sullivan from running in this year's U.S. Senate race, even if they're not voting for him
Abcnews.com · July 11, 2026