Democratic
Mary Peltola
Major-party general-election nominee.
← all Senate races
Alaska U.S. Senate election, 2026
Mary Peltola vs. Dan Sullivan. Incumbent advanced to general.
VotePredictor forecast
Dan Sullivan favored
Toss-up · predicted margin R+1.1
57%
chance to win
Poll-driven model · 23 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology →
Republican
Dan Sullivan
Incumbent. Voting record and biography →
Other listed candidates: Gerald Heikes, Dan J. Sullivan, Dan S. Sullivan.
Polls
| Pollster | Date | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| RealClearPolitics[100] | 2026-09-17 | D+1.7 |
| co/efficient | 2026-09-17 | R+3.0 |
| Decision Desk HQ[97] | 2026-09-17 | D+1.2 |
| FiftyPlusOne[98] | 2026-09-17 | D+2.8 |
| Silver Bulletin[89] | 2026-09-17 | D+1.7 |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research | 2026-09-11 | D+6.0 |
| Race to the WH[99] | 2026-09-11 | D+2.2 |
| Fabrizio Ward/ Impact Research[101][A] | 2026-09-11 | D+4.0 |
| Alaska Survey Research | 2026-08-23 | D+1.2 |
| Alaska Survey Research | 2026-08-05 | D+1.6 |
| Race to the WH[64] | 2026-08-05 | D+0.4 |
| Data for Progress[102] | 2026-08-04 | D+5.0 |
| New York Times/Siena University[58] | 2026-06-29 | R+2.0 |
| Silver Bulletin[63] | 2026-06-29 | D+0.5 |
| New York Times/Siena University[66] | 2026-06-29 | R+2.0 |
| The New York Times/Siena University | 2026-06-29 | R+2.0 |
| Alaska Survey Research | 2026-06-07 | D+5.2 |
| Race to the WH[57] | 2026-05-27 | D+3.9 |
| Alaska Survey Research | 2026-05-17 | D+4.6 |
| Alaska Survey Research | 2026-04-19 | D+3.5 |
| Alaska Survey Research | 2026-03-22 | D+4.8 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2026-01-17 | D+2.0 |
| Alaska Survey Research | 2026-01-11 | D+1.6 |
Other forecasts
Cook
Tossup
as of Sep 15, 2026
DDHQ
Lean D (flip)
as of Sep 22, 2026
Econ
Tossup
as of Sep 22, 2026
FPO
Lean D (flip)
as of Sep 22, 2026
Fox
Tossup
as of Sep 22, 2026
IE
Tilt R
as of Sep 17, 2026
RCP
Tossup
as of Sep 20, 2026
Sabato
Tossup
as of Aug 26, 2026
Silver
Tossup
as of Sep 19, 2026
ST
Tossup
as of Sep 21, 2026
Published ratings are categorical, not probabilities, and remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Past results
Every U.S. Senate election in Alaska we hold a result for. A state elects two senators on separate cycles, so this covers both of its seats, not only the one on the ballot in 2026.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
'That's a big swing!' Analysts wowed as red-state survey forecasts disaster for GOP
A new Alaska poll co-conducted by President Trump's own pollster shows Democratic Senate candidate Mary Peltola leading Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan by five points head-to-head, a stunning result in a state Trump carried by 13 points just two years ago.Democr…
Raw Story · Yesterday
The 2026 midterms are 6 weeks away. What the latest polls say.
The 2026 midterm elections are just 43 days away. All of the key primaries have been decided. With summer officially behind us, the fall campaign is now underway.So where do things stand — nationwide — in the race to control Congress? Which party has a better…
Yahoo Entertainment · Yesterday
Transcript: Trump’s Pollster Drops Bomb on GOP as Midterm Panic Erupts
The following is a lightly edited transcript of the September 21 episode of the Daily Blast podcast. Listen to it here.Greg Sargent: This is The Daily Blast from The New Republic, produced and presented by the DSR Network. I’m your host, Greg Sargent.A new po…
The New Republic · Yesterday
Trump’s Pollster Drops Bomb on GOP as Midterm Panic Grows: “Bloodbath”
A striking new poll finds Democrat Mary Peltola leading GOP Senator Dan Sullivan by 46-41 in the Alaska Senate race. This is big news: Because quality polling of Alaska is so rare, it’s a real indicator that a Senate majority is now truly gettable for Democra…
The New Republic · Yesterday
Transcript: The Mistakes That The Democrats Keep Making
This is a lightly edited transcript of the September 17 edition of Right Now With Perry Bacon. You can watch the video here or by following this show on YouTube or Substack.Perry Bacon: Hi, this is Right Now on The New Republic, and I’m the host, Perry Bacon.…
The New Republic · September 18, 2026
Republican Senator Gets Warning Sign From New Alaska Poll
Democrat Mary Peltola holds a tight lead over Republican incumbent Senator Dan S. Sullivan in Alaska's Senate race ahead of the November election, a new poll has revealed. The survey, conducted by AARP between September 8-11, showed Peltola on 46 percent of t…
Biztoc.com · September 17, 2026
Mysterious Wisconsin-based super PAC elevates ‘Decoy Dan’ Sullivan in Alaska, after backing other spoilers
Retired teacher Dan J. Sullivan, also known as “Decoy Dan” because he shares the same name as incumbent Sen. Dan S. Sullivan, is getting some backup from a mysterious super PAC.
New York Post · September 16, 2026
Alaska’s Senate Race Just Got More Confusing: 2 Republican Dan Sullivans Advance
By VIRGINIA GRACE MCKINNON, The Daily Signal | August 26, 2026 Republican Dan J. Sullivan officially joined Alaska GOP Sen. Dan S. Sullivan as two of the state’s top four midterm candidates Wednesday morning. Both Republican Dan Sullivans will appear on the …
Biztoc.com · August 27, 2026