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Mary Peltola vs. Dan S. Sullivan: Alaska U.S. Senate election, 2026

Mary Peltola vs. Dan S. Sullivan. Incumbent advanced to general.

VotePredictor forecast (our model)
Dan S. Sullivan favored
Toss-up
55%
chance to win
R+0.3
predicted margin

Poll-driven model · 16 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology → · Today's article: every poll and forecast →

Democratic

Mary Peltola

Major-party general-election nominee.

Polls

The polls behind it

26 polls · 16 in today's forecast · newest first

Dimmed polls are more than 61 days old. They stay on the record, but today's forecast no longer counts them. Each pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain). VotePredictor adjusted (“Our adj.” on small screens) is not a poll: it is our correction of that poll, for its pollster's record in past elections and for registered-voter or all-adult samples. It is the number our forecast reads.

PollsterDateMarginOur adj.
InsiderAdvantage (via Wikipedia)Grade C11-01EVEND+0.4
AtlasIntel (via Wikipedia)Grade A-11-01D+5.0D+5.1
The New York Times/Siena University10-30D+2.0D+0.5
Alaska Survey Research (via Wikipedia)10-29D+2.0R+0.5
Data for ProgressGrade B+10-16D+2.0R+0.9
Public Policy PollingGrade A-10-15D+1.0R+1.7
Rasmussen Reports (via Wikipedia)Grade B10-15D+2.0D+0.7
InsiderAdvantage (via Wikipedia)Grade C10-10D+5.0D+5.4
Alaska Survey Research (via Wikipedia)10-03D+1.0R+1.5
New York Times/Siena University (via Wikipedia)10-01D+7.0D+5.5
Quantus Insights09-30R+0.6D+1.1
Trafalgar Group (via Wikipedia)Grade B09-24R+1.0D+1.2
co/efficient09-17R+3.0D+0.5
Rasmussen Reports (via Wikipedia)Grade B09-14EVENR+1.3
Alaska Survey Research (via Wikipedia)09-12D+5.0D+2.5
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research09-11D+6.0D+6.9
Alaska Survey Research08-23D+1.2R+1.3
Alaska Survey Research08-05D+1.6R+0.9
Data for Progress (via Wikipedia)Grade B+08-04D+4.0D+1.1
The New York Times/Siena University06-29R+2.0R+3.5
Alaska Survey Research06-07D+5.2D+2.7
Alaska Survey Research05-17D+4.6D+2.1
Alaska Survey Research04-19D+3.5D+1.0
Alaska Survey Research03-22D+4.8D+2.3
Public Policy PollingGrade A-01-17D+2.0D+1.2
Alaska Survey Research01-11D+1.6R+0.9

Campaign money

FEC reports through October 14, 2026
Mary PeltolaDEM$36.9M raised
Spent $32.8MCash on hand $4.1M34% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. FISH FAMILY FREEDOM FUND$1.9M
  2. BROWN, PAPPAS, PELTOLA, TALARICO SENATE VICTORY FUND$115k
  3. JUSTICE 2026$101k
  4. THE LIFTOFF FUND$101k
  5. MAJORITY 2026$67k

Industries

  1. Unemployed$11.5M
  2. Self-Employed & Freelance$1.6M
  3. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$474k
  4. Legal & Professional Services$430k
  5. Education & Academia$299k

States

  1. CA$3.9M
  2. NY$1.8M
  3. AK$1.5M
  4. MA$1.4M
  5. WA$1.2M
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗
Dan S. SullivanREP · incumbent$14.1M raised
Spent $12.0MCash on hand $2.8M7% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. SULLIVAN VICTORY$1.9M
  2. HOLD THE SENATE$298k
  3. ONE TEAM SENATE MAJORITY$237k
  4. UPHOLD THE SENATE$134k
  5. MAINTAIN THE MAJORITY$110k

Industries

  1. Retired$1.3M
  2. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$456k
  3. Self-Employed & Freelance$393k
  4. Legal & Professional Services$238k
  5. Technology & Communications$148k

States

  1. AK$1.1M
  2. CA$522k
  3. NY$447k
  4. FL$418k
  5. VA$306k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗
Gerald HeikesREP— raised
Spent —Cash on hand —

What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The Senate forecast does not read these figures. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.

Other forecasts

VotePredictor (ours)
R 55%
a probability from our model
Cook
Tossup≈ 50%
as of Nov 2, 2026
DDHQ
Tossup≈ 50%
as of Nov 3, 2026
Econ
Tossup≈ 50%
as of Nov 3, 2026
FPO
Lean D (flip)≈ D 75%
as of Nov 2, 2026
Fox
Tossup≈ 50%
as of Nov 1, 2026
IE
Tossup≈ 50%
as of Oct 29, 2026
MS NOW
Tossup≈ 50%
as of Oct 29, 2026
NBC
Tossup≈ 50%
as of Nov 3, 2026
RCP
Tossup≈ 50%
as of Nov 2, 2026
Sabato
Lean D (flip)≈ D 75%
as of Nov 2, 2026
Silver
Tossup≈ 50%
as of Nov 3, 2026
ST
Lean D (flip)≈ D 75%
as of Nov 2, 2026

The source we collect records each outlet's rating category, not a probability; some of these outlets run models with their own numbers on their sites. The ≈ figure is the standard conversion of the category (Toss-up 50%, Tilt 60%, Lean 75%, Likely 90%, Solid 99%), the one our scorecard grades them on, not a number they published. They remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗

Independent models

Who Shows Up · independent model ↗
R 53%R+0.3
as of 2026-11-03

Win probabilities published by independent statistical models, shown with credit as their terms allow: Who Shows Up (whoshowsup.net), by Kurt Wirth. These are their numbers, not ratings converted by us, and not VotePredictor's. The better-known model forecasters (Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Silver Bulletin, the Economist) don't permit republishing their probabilities, so they appear above by rating only.

What the markets say

Chance of winning
VotePredictor Elections modelD 45%R 55%
Kalshi ↗D 97%R 3%

Market prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.

Past results

Every U.S. Senate election in Alaska we hold a result for. A state elects two senators on separate cycles, so this covers both of its seats, not only the one on the ballot in 2026.

YearWinnerMargin
2022Lisa Murkowski(R)D+7.4
2020Dan Sullivan(R)R+12.7
2016Lisa Murkowski(R)R+32.7
2014Dan Sullivan(R)R+2.1
2010Winner not in a two-party contestR+12.1
2008Mark Begich(D)D+1.2
2004Lisa Murkowski(R)R+3.0

Candidate news

Mary Peltola Appears Likely To Defeat Both Dan Sullivans in Alaska's Senate Race

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump impotently called for the state to just give Sullivan all the other votes and declare him the winner.

Reason · Yesterday
All eyes are on Alaska's controversial Senate race… but here's why we won't find out the results for at least four more days

With about 74 percent of ballots counted, Democrat Mary Peltola currently holds a razor-thin lead of 637 votes over Trump-backed GOP incumbent Dan Sullivan as of Friday morning.

Dailymail.com · Yesterday
The Midterms Weren’t Red vs. Blue, They Were Bought vs. Not Bought

This week, voters in red and purple states sent Democrats to the Senate who ran against corporate money. James Talarico won in Texas. Annie Andrews won in South Carolina. Adam Hamilton won in Kansas. All three took $0 in corporate PAC money.More than 16 years…

Common Dreams · Yesterday
Trailing MAGA Republican begs for recount cash: ‘Costs money every single hour’

Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith's (R-MS) campaign is appealing to donors to cover legal costs as she trails Democrat Scott Colom in Mississippi’s Senate race, Politico reported on Thursday.Mississippi and Alaska are the last two uncalled Senate races, Politico reported…

Raw Story · Yesterday
In Alaska, Ranked-Choice Ballots Are Unlikely to Be Enough for Dan Sullivan - The New York Times

In Alaska, Ranked-Choice Ballots Are Unlikely to Be Enough for Dan SullivanThe New York Times Alaska U.S. Senate Election 2026 Live Results: Mary Peltola, Dan Sullivan and MoreNBC News Ranked choice voting may help Republican US Sen. Dan Sullivan, analysis fi…

Slashdot.org · Yesterday
Mary Peltola On Track to Win Alaska’s Senate Race

“Senator Dan S. Sullivan is unlikely to make significant gains if the Alaska Senate race advances to ranked-choice tabulation, according to a New York Times analysis of the available ranked-choice data in the state,” the New York Times reports. “This holds tr…

Politicalwire.com · November 5, 2026
Trump Begs to Win a Single Midterm Election in Panicked Rant

Donald Trump is trying to rig another election.The president suggested making an eyebrow-raising change to the Alaska Senate race, writing on Truth Social on Thursday that the votes cast for independent candidate Dan J. Sullivan Jr. should be tacked on to the…

The New Republic · November 5, 2026
Forget the Second Dan Sullivan. Eric Hafner Was Alaska’s Bigger Spoiler

For months, Alaska's ballot was a fight over who belonged on it. A retired Petersburg teacher named Dan J. Sullivan filed to run against Senator Dan S. Sullivan, setting off a legal and political battle over whether the similar names could confuse voters. The…

Biztoc.com · November 5, 2026