Pennsylvania governor election, 2026

Josh Shapiro vs. Stacy Garrity. Incumbent renominated.

VotePredictor forecast

Josh Shapiro favored

Likely D · predicted margin D+17.4

94%

chance to win

Poll-driven model · 9 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology →

Democratic

Josh Shapiro

Major-party general-election nominee.

Republican

Stacy Garrity

Major-party general-election nominee.

Other listed candidates

Tony Dastra · Green
Ken Krawchuk · Libertarian
Justin Magill · Constitution

Polls

Pollster	Date	Margin
National Public Affairs	2026-07-30	D+7.0
Bravo Group	2026-07-24	D+25.0
Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research	2026-06-14	D+22.0
MAD Global Strategy	2026-06-11	D+17.0
PennLive	2026-05-24	D+24.0
Bravo Group	2026-05-24	D+24.0
Susquehanna Polling & Research	2026-03-29	D+22.0
Franklin & Marshall College	2026-03-01	D+20.0
Quinnipiac University	2026-02-23	D+18.0

Other forecasts

Cook

Solid D

Sabato

Likely D

Safe D

RCP

Solid D

Fox

Solid D

VoteHub

Likely D

Published ratings are categorical, not probabilities, and remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗

Candidate news

AG Jennings joins lawsuit amid attempt to hike health insurance costs

Delaware Attorney General Kathy Jennings joined a coalition of 19 fellow attorneys general and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro in a lawsuit challenging the latest federal move to weaken the Affordable Care Act on Aug. 3 – a move that, should it advance, would …

Biztoc.com · August 3, 2026

MAGA Turns Against DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin

Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin is on thin ice.It’s only been four months since Mullin took over from Kristi Noem as head of DHS, and influential MAGA allies are already calling for him to be replaced.The latest surge of anger came Saturday after…

The New Republic · August 3, 2026

'He sucks': White House insiders lining up against Mullin as patience runs out

The knives are out in the White House for Department of Homeland Security Director Markwayne Mullin after he added more fuel to the fire over the weekend.According to a report from Politico Playbook, Mullin's nuanced take on working immigrants over the weeken…

Raw Story · August 3, 2026

Josh Shapiro Had the Heads Up on LeBron James

“Just three minutes and 46 seconds after NBA insider Shams Charania posted the sports-world-shaking news that LeBron James inked a deal with the Philadelphia 76ers, Josh Shapiro’s X account lit up with an intricately crafted proclamation declaring LeBron Jame…

Politicalwire.com · July 31, 2026

Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro reveals he personally recruited LeBron James to join the 76ers

Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro admitted he couldn’t let a chance to pitch LeBron James to join the Philadelphia 76ers go to waste. James stunned many people in the world of basketball when he announced he was joining the Philadelphia 76ers for the 2026-27…

HITC - Football, Gaming, Movies, TV, Music · July 30, 2026

Trump visits Mack Trucks plant in battleground Pennsylvania district to tout economic agenda as midterms loom - Fox Business

Trump visits Mack Trucks plant in battleground Pennsylvania district to tout economic agenda as midterms loomFox Business Trump touts U.S. economy and oil prices in a midterm pitch in PennsylvaniaNBC News From peace talks to Pennsylvania: Trump shifts focus t…

Slashdot.org · June 24, 2026

Trump-Endorsed Candidate Wins Republican Gubernatorial Primary [PA]

Pennsylvania Treasurer Stacy Garrity won the Republican primary for Governor of Pennsylvania. Garrity, who secured Trump’s endorsement in January, will face incumbent Democrat Gov. Josh Shapiro in the general election. “Both ran unopposed in Tuesday’s primary…

Freerepublic.com · May 20, 2026

Trump-Endorsed Candidate Wins Republican Gubernatorial Primary [PA]

Freerepublic.com · May 20, 2026