Democratic
Josh Shapiro
Major-party general-election nominee.
← all governor races
Josh Shapiro vs. Stacy Garrity: Pennsylvania governor election, 2026
Josh Shapiro vs. Stacy Garrity. Incumbent re-elected..
VotePredictor forecast (our model)
Josh Shapiro favored
Safe D
99%
chance to win
D+22.6
predicted margin
Poll-driven model · 9 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology → · Today's article: every poll and forecast →
Republican
Stacy Garrity
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Ken Krawchuk · Libertarian
Polls
The polls behind it
23 polls · 9 in today's forecast · newest firstDimmed polls are more than 61 days old. They stay on the record, but today's forecast no longer counts them. Each pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain). VotePredictor adjusted (“Our adj.” on small screens) is not a poll: it is our correction of that poll, for its pollster's record in past elections and for registered-voter or all-adult samples. It is the number our forecast reads.
PollsterDateSampleMarginOur adj.VotePredictor adjusted
The New York Times/The Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena University (via Wikipedia)08-212026-08-21D+17.0D+14.3
Other forecasts
VotePredictor (ours)
D 99%
a probability from our model
Cook
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Oct. 29, 2026
DDHQ
Safe D≈ D 99%
as of Nov. 3, 2026
Fox
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Nov. 1, 2026
IE
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Oct. 29, 2026
NBC
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Nov. 3, 2026
RCP
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Nov. 1, 2026
Sabato
Safe D≈ D 99%
as of Nov. 2, 2026
Silver
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Nov. 3, 2026
The source we collect records each outlet's rating category, not a probability; some of these outlets run models with their own numbers on their sites. The ≈ figure is the standard conversion of the category (Toss-up 50%, Tilt 60%, Lean 75%, Likely 90%, Solid 99%), the one our scorecard grades them on, not a number they published. They remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Independent models
Win probabilities published by independent statistical models, shown with credit as their terms allow: Who Shows Up (whoshowsup.net), by Kurt Wirth. These are their numbers, not ratings converted by us, and not VotePredictor's. The better-known model forecasters (Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Silver Bulletin, the Economist) don't permit republishing their probabilities, so they appear above by rating only.
Past results
Every Pennsylvania election for governor we hold a result for.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Transcript: Democratic “Moderation” Isn’t What Produced the Wave
This is a lightly edited transcript of the November 5 edition of Right Now With Perry Bacon. You can watch the video here or by following this show on YouTube or Substack. Perry Bacon: Good afternoon. This is Right Now on The New Republic. I’m the host, Perry…
The New Republic · Yesterday
Transcript: Do Americans Hate “The System” or Trump?
This is a lightly edited transcript of the November 4 edition of Right Now With Perry Bacon. You can watch the video here or by following this show on YouTube or Substack. Perry Bacon: I’m Perry Bacon, and this is Right Now on The New Republic. We’re here rig…
The New Republic · November 5, 2026
Pennsylvania Governor Election 2026 Live Results: Josh Shapiro Wins
Follow 2026 Pennsylvania governor election results as voters decide which candidate will take over next term.
NBC News · November 5, 2026
Pa. Dems won big in the midterms. What’s next, and when will it happen?
For four years, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and state House Democrats blamed Republican leadership in the state Senate for blocking bills and delaying what they see as progress. But that obstacle will soon be gone. Pennsylvania Democrats won the state Sena…
Freerepublic.com · November 4, 2026
Trump faces a political reckoning after Democrats' midterm rout
President Donald Trump spent two months urging Americans to pretend he was on the ballot. On Tuesday, they did just that.Voters delivered a stunning rebuke to Trump's party that rivaled anything Republicans had suffered in 50 years, defeats on ruby-red turf t…
Yahoo Entertainment · November 4, 2026
Gov. Josh Shapiro sails to a second term in battleground Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro easily defeated Republican state Treasurer Stacy Garrity in his re-election bid, NBC News projects.
NBC News · November 4, 2026
Pennsylvania Republican Gubernatorial Candidate Stacy Garrity Calls for Voters to 'Choose a New Direction'
Pennsylvania Republican gubernatorial nominee and state Treasurer Stacy Garrity called for voters to "choose a new direction" in the state's upcoming gubernatorial election. The post Pennsylvania Republican Gubernatorial Candidate Stacy Garrity Calls for Vote…
Breitbart News · October 31, 2026
The midterms could make or break these politicians' 2028 presidential ambitions
NEW YORK (AP) — As most of the political world focuses on next month's midterm elections, the shadow primary for the 2028 presidential contest is quietly playing out in public view. Democratic and Republican presidential prospects have been crisscrossing th…
Yahoo Entertainment · October 9, 2026