Democratic
Josh Shapiro
Major-party general-election nominee.
← all governor races
Pennsylvania governor election, 2026
Josh Shapiro vs. Stacy Garrity. Incumbent renominated.
VotePredictor forecast
Josh Shapiro favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+22.2
99%
chance to win
Poll-driven model · 12 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology →
Republican
Stacy Garrity
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Ken Krawchuk · Libertarian
Polls
| Pollster | Date | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| Franklin & Marshall College | 2026-08-23 | D+25.0 |
| Bravo Group | 2026-08-22 | D+31.0 |
| The New York Times/Siena University | 2026-08-21 | D+16.0 |
| National Public Affairs | 2026-07-30 | D+7.0 |
| Bravo Group | 2026-07-24 | D+25.0 |
| Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | 2026-06-14 | D+22.0 |
| MAD Global Strategy | 2026-06-11 | D+17.0 |
| PennLive | 2026-05-24 | D+24.0 |
| Bravo Group | 2026-05-24 | D+24.0 |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research | 2026-03-29 | D+22.0 |
| Franklin & Marshall College | 2026-03-01 | D+20.0 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2026-02-23 | D+18.0 |
Other forecasts
Cook
Solid D
as of Sep. 17, 2026
IE
Solid D
as of Sep. 17., 2026
Sabato
Safe D
as of Sep. 3, 2026
RCP
Solid D
as of Sep. 17, 2026
Fox
Solid D
as of Sep. 22, 2026
Silver
Solid D
as of Sep. 17, 2026
DDHQ
Likely D
as of Sep. 17, 2026
Published ratings are categorical, not probabilities, and remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Past results
Every Pennsylvania election for governor we hold a result for.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Republicans Say Pennsylvania Disease Rule Proposals Allow for Warrantless Entry Into Homes
THE CENTER SQUARE—A proposal from the administration of Gov. Josh Shapiro to overhaul disease regulations has unleashed a flood of public comments and irritated state Republicans, who claim it would allow for warrantless entry into homes and violate the publi…
Daily Signal · Today
Shapiro fires back at RFK Jr., Trump on measles: ‘Incompetence’ - The Hill
Shapiro fires back at RFK Jr., Trump on measles: ‘Incompetence’The Hill Gov. Josh Shapiro calls on CDC to recognize measles-associated deaths in Pa. outbreakradio.wpsu.org Pennsylvania Officials Report Fourth Measles Death, as Outbreak GrowsThe New York Times…
Slashdot.org · September 19, 2026
Measles Scare Hits Children’s Hospital as RFK Jr. Does Nothing
There’s been a “probable” measles exposure at the Children’s Hospital of Pennsylvania—more devastating news for what has been the worst year for measles in the United States since the often fatal, highly contagious virus was declared eradicated in 2000.The li…
The New Republic · September 18, 2026
Transcript: The Mistakes That The Democrats Keep Making
This is a lightly edited transcript of the September 17 edition of Right Now With Perry Bacon. You can watch the video here or by following this show on YouTube or Substack.Perry Bacon: Hi, this is Right Now on The New Republic, and I’m the host, Perry Bacon.…
The New Republic · September 18, 2026
Pennsylvania asks CDC for emergency assistance amid RFK Jr. clash over measles - The Hill
Pennsylvania asks CDC for emergency assistance amid RFK Jr. clash over measlesThe Hill Gov. Josh Shapiro calls on CDC to recognize measles-associated deaths in Pa. outbreakWPSU Pennsylvania asks CDC for emergency help as measles outbreak spreadsThe Guardian P…
Slashdot.org · September 18, 2026
Josh Shapiro Cruising to Re-Election in Pennsylvania
“Gov. Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, a moderate Democrat, is in the driver’s seat for re-election in a battleground state,” according to a New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena University poll. “Mr. Shapiro leads Stacy Garrity, the Republican state treasu…
Politicalwire.com · August 25, 2026
Garrity calls for Shapiro to return $5.7M in data center-related campaign donations
Republican gubernatorial candidate Stacy Garrity on Friday called for Gov. Josh Shapiro to return $5.7 million in political contributions from what she described as “out-of-state data center interests.” Garrity’s call came three days after S…
TribLIVE · August 21, 2026
From Pennsylvania to Ohio to Texas, the governors’ races are all coming down to data centers
Stacy Garrity accused Josh Shapiro of having “lit the fuse on the chaos we are seeing in community after community.”
Fortune · August 19, 2026