Democratic
Josh Shapiro
Major-party general-election nominee.
← all governor races
Pennsylvania governor election, 2026
Josh Shapiro vs. Stacy Garrity. Incumbent renominated.
VotePredictor forecast
Josh Shapiro favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+23.4
99%
chance to win
Poll-driven model · 15 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology →
Republican
Stacy Garrity
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Ken Krawchuk · Libertarian
Polls
| Pollster | Date | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| FiftyPlusOne | 2026-10-05 | D+22.2 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2026-10-05 | D+25.0 |
| FiftyPlusOne | 2026-10-02 | D+22.2 |
| Z to A Research | 2026-10-01 | D+19.0 |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research | 2026-09-30 | D+21.0 |
| Bravo Group | 2026-09-22 | D+27.0 |
| The New York Times/Siena University | 2026-09-22 | D+20.0 |
| PennLive | 2026-09-22 | D+27.0 |
| The New York Times/The Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena University | 2026-09-22 | D+20.0 |
| FiftyPlusOne | 2026-09-22 | D+20.2 |
| Franklin & Marshall College | 2026-08-23 | D+25.0 |
| PennLive | 2026-08-22 | D+31.0 |
| Bravo Group | 2026-08-22 | D+31.0 |
| The New York Times/Siena University | 2026-08-21 | D+16.0 |
| The New York Times/The Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena University | 2026-08-21 | D+16.0 |
Other forecasts
Cook
Solid D
as of Oct. 13, 2026
DDHQ
Safe D
as of Oct. 14, 2026
Fox
Solid D
as of Oct. 6, 2026
IE
Solid D
as of Oct. 1, 2026
RCP
Solid D
as of Oct. 12, 2026
Sabato
Safe D
as of Oct. 6, 2026
Silver
Solid D
as of Oct. 13, 2026
Published ratings are categorical, not probabilities, and remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Past results
Every Pennsylvania election for governor we hold a result for.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Transcript: The Blue Wave Is Coming to the States As Well
This is a lightly edited transcript of the October 14 edition of Right Now With Perry Bacon. You can watch the video here or by following this show on YouTube or Substack. Perry Bacon: Hi, I’m Perry Bacon. I’m joined by Chaz Nuttycombe. He’s the executive dir…
The New Republic · Yesterday
The Jewish Case for Electing Abdul El-Sayed
Jews in Michigan, and across America, would do well to reframe the terms on which they are weighing the choice posed by Abdul El-Sayed’s candidacy for the U.S. Senate. Such a reframe is in order, however individuals align with the candidate’s antagonism to th…
The New Republic · Yesterday
Former President Joe Biden was in town to rally with Gov. Josh Shapiro, Philly Dems — and Big Dom
Only in Philadelphia does a political rally weeks ahead of the midterm election feature the former president, the governor, the mayor, and the Eagles’ head of security. That was the lineup Monday night at the Democratic City Committee’s annual fall fundraiser…
Freerepublic.com · October 14, 2026
Can This Florida Dem Pull Off One More Big Surprise?
You’re reading The TNR Blue Book. Get daily scoops, strategy, and developments inside the liberal ideas factory delivered right to your inbox. Sign up for free.Inside WashingtonAngie Nixon has defied expectations before. In the Democratic primary for Florida’…
The New Republic · October 13, 2026
Josh Shapiro Hopes He Has Coattails in House Races
“Pennsylvania could be the whole ballgame for House Democrats on election night,” MS NOW reports. “The results could also offer a big test for the political clout of the state’s Democratic governor, Josh Shapiro, who is running for re-election but possibly ha…
Politicalwire.com · October 12, 2026
The midterms could make or break these politicians' 2028 presidential ambitions
NEW YORK (AP) — As most of the political world focuses on next month's midterm elections, the shadow primary for the 2028 presidential contest is quietly playing out in public view. Democratic and Republican presidential prospects have been crisscrossing th…
Yahoo Entertainment · October 9, 2026
Josh Shapiro Headed for Landslide Re-Election Win
A new PennLive/Bravo Group poll in Pennsylvania finds Josh Shapiro (D) leading Stacy Garrity (R) in the governor’s race, 55% to 28%. Pennsylvania Governor’s Race Josh Shapiro (D) 55% Stacy Garrity (R) 28% PennLive/Bravo Group poll · likely voters
Politicalwire.com · October 1, 2026
Josh Shapiro Headed for Blowout in Pennsylvania
A new The Inquirer, the New York Times/Siena University poll in Pennsylvania finds Josh Shapiro (D) leading Stacy Garrity (R) in the governor’s race, 58% to 38%. Pennsylvania Governor’s Race Josh Shapiro (D) 58% Stacy Garrity (R) 38% The Inquirer, the New…
Politicalwire.com · September 24, 2026