Amanda Janoo vs. Phil Scott: Vermont governor election, 2026

Amanda Janoo vs. Phil Scott. Incumbent re-elected..

VotePredictor forecast (our model)

Phil Scott favored

Likely R

93%

chance to win

R+5.9

predicted margin

Poll-driven model · 5 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology → · Today's article: every poll and forecast →

Democratic

Amanda Janoo

Major-party general-election nominee.

Republican

Phil Scott

Major-party general-election nominee.

Other listed candidates

Brian Judd · Independent
June Goodband · Green Mountain
Dean Roy · Freedom and Unity

Polls

The polls behind it

7 polls · 5 in today's forecast · newest first

Dimmed polls are more than 61 days old. They stay on the record, but today's forecast no longer counts them. Each pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain). VotePredictor adjusted (“Our adj.” on small screens) is not a poll: it is our correction of that poll, for its pollster's record in past elections and for registered-voter or all-adult samples. It is the number our forecast reads.

PollsterDateMarginOur adj.

University of New HampshireGrade B10-31D+8.0D+5.7

State Navigate10-25R+3.0R+2.8

State Navigate (via Wikipedia)10-04R+3.0R+2.8

University of New HampshireGrade B09-21D+6.0D+3.7

Braun Research/Vermont Public (via Wikipedia)09-21R+10.0R+14.9

University of New HampshireGrade B07-20R+11.0R+13.3

University of New HampshireGrade B06-23R+15.0R+17.3

Other forecasts

VotePredictor (ours)

R 93%

a probability from our model

Cook

Likely R≈ R 90%

as of Oct. 29, 2026

DDHQ

Likely R≈ R 90%

as of Nov. 3, 2026

Fox

Likely R≈ R 90%

as of Nov. 1, 2026

Likely R≈ R 90%

as of Oct. 29, 2026

NBC

Likely R≈ R 90%

as of Nov. 3, 2026

RCP

Tossup≈ 50%

as of Nov. 1, 2026

Sabato

Lean R≈ R 75%

as of Nov. 2, 2026

Silver

Tossup≈ 50%

as of Nov. 3, 2026

The source we collect records each outlet's rating category, not a probability; some of these outlets run models with their own numbers on their sites. The ≈ figure is the standard conversion of the category (Toss-up 50%, Tilt 60%, Lean 75%, Likely 90%, Solid 99%), the one our scorecard grades them on, not a number they published. They remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗

Independent models

Who Shows Up · independent model ↗

R 88%R+5.9

as of 2026-11-03

Win probabilities published by independent statistical models, shown with credit as their terms allow: Who Shows Up (whoshowsup.net), by Kurt Wirth. These are their numbers, not ratings converted by us, and not VotePredictor's. The better-known model forecasters (Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Silver Bulletin, the Economist) don't permit republishing their probabilities, so they appear above by rating only.

Past results

Every Vermont election for governor we hold a result for.

YearWinnerMargin

2024Republican candidate(R)R+51.6

2022Phil Scott(R)R+47.0

2020Phil Scott(R)R+41.1

2018Phil Scott(R)R+14.9

2016Phil Scott(R)R+8.7

2014Peter Elliott Shumlin(D)D+1.3

2010Peter Elliott Shumlin(D)D+1.8

2008Jim Douglas(R)R+31.6

2006Jim Douglas(R)R+15.2

2002Jim Douglas(R)R+2.5

2000Howard Dean(D)D+12.5

1998Howard Dean(D)D+14.5

Candidate news

Midterms may bring in wave of historic firsts across U.S.

Featuring one of the most diverse slates of both Democratic and Republican candidates in recent years, this midterm election has set up a possible wave of historic leadership firsts across the country. Voters on Tuesday could propel into office the first Na…

Yahoo Entertainment · November 3, 2026

Final Poll Shows Democrat Defeating America's Most Popular GOP Governor

Being the most popular governor in the United States may not be enough to save Vermont’s Phil Scott from an historic upset, according to a new poll. A new University of New Hampshire (UNH) Green Mountain State Poll, released Sunday, found Democrat Amanda Jano…

Biztoc.com · November 2, 2026

Scott Leads Janoo in Vermont Governor’s Race

A new State Navigate poll in Vermont finds Phil Scott (R) leading Amanda Janoo (D) in the governor’s race, 49% to 46%. Vermont Governor’s Race Phil Scott (R) 49% Amanda Janoo (D) 46% State Navigate poll · likely voters · ±2.3%

Politicalwire.com · October 27, 2026

WATCH LIVE: Gov. Scott, challenger Janoo face off in Vermont governor debate

Vermont Republican Gov. Phil Scott and Democratic challenger Amanda Janoo face off in a debate produced by Vermont Public.

Biztoc.com · October 21, 2026

A New Hope in Vermont

Can Amanda Janoo, a 39-year-old progressive economist, beat Vermont’s sitting Republican governor? The post A New Hope in Vermont appeared first on The American Prospect.

The American Prospect · October 20, 2026

Legendary polling analyst reveals staggering number as midterm results roll in

Election forecaster Nate Silver says Democrats are on pace to emerge from Tuesday’s midterms holding governorships across most of the electoral map.“If the remaining results go as expected, Democrats will hold governorships in states totaling 392 electoral vo…

Raw Story · November 4, 2026

Republican Incumbent Vermont Gov. Phil Scott to Serve Sixth Term in Office

Incumbent Vermont Gov. Phil Scott (R) secured another term on Tuesday night in the state's 2026 gubernatorial election, NBC News projects. The post Republican Incumbent Vermont Gov. Phil Scott to Serve Sixth Term in Office appeared first on Breitbart.

Breitbart News · November 4, 2026