Democratic
Amanda Janoo
Major-party general-election nominee.
← all governor races
Vermont governor election, 2026
Amanda Janoo vs. Phil Scott. Incumbent renominated.
VotePredictor forecast
Phil Scott favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+10.5
99%
chance to win
Poll-driven model · 3 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology →
Republican
Phil Scott
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- June Goodband · Green Mountain
- Brian Judd · Independent
- Dean Roy · Freedom and Unity
Polls
| Pollster | Date | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| State Navigate | 2026-10-04 | R+3.0 |
| Braun Research/Vermont Public | 2026-09-21 | R+10.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | 2026-09-21 | D+6.0 |
Other forecasts
Cook
Likely R
as of Oct. 13, 2026
DDHQ
Likely R
as of Oct. 14, 2026
Fox
Likely R
as of Oct. 6, 2026
IE
Solid R
as of Oct. 1, 2026
RCP
Lean R
as of Oct. 12, 2026
Sabato
Likely R
as of Oct. 6, 2026
Silver
Lean R
as of Oct. 13, 2026
Published ratings are categorical, not probabilities, and remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Past results
Every Vermont election for governor we hold a result for.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Could this be the year Democrats close the 'governor gap' with Republicans?
When people talk about this year's midterms, they tend to focus on whether Democrats will end unified Republican control of Congress by winning the U.S. Senate or House of Representatives (or both). And that makes sense: Congress has the power to check Presid…
Yahoo Entertainment · Yesterday
Phil Scott Comfortably Ahead for Vermont Governor
A new Vermont Public/Braun Research poll in Vermont finds Phil Scott (R) leading Amanda Janoo (D) in the governor’s race, 42% to 32%, with Brian Judd (I) at 2%, Dean Roy (FREE) at 1% and June Goodband (PEAC) at 0%. Vermont Governor’s Race Phil Scott (R) 42% …
Politicalwire.com · September 28, 2026
Amanda Janoo Leads in Vermont Governor’s Race
A new University of New Hampshire poll in Vermont finds Amanda Janoo (D) leading Phil Scott (R) in the governor’s race, 49% to 43%, with Brian Judd at 2%. Vermont Governor’s Race Amanda Janoo (D) 49% Phil Scott (R) 43% University of New Hampshire poll · l…
Politicalwire.com · September 24, 2026
Transcript: The Blue Wave Is Coming to the States As Well
This is a lightly edited transcript of the October 14 edition of Right Now With Perry Bacon. You can watch the video here or by following this show on YouTube or Substack. Perry Bacon: Hi, I’m Perry Bacon. I’m joined by Chaz Nuttycombe. He’s the executive dir…
The New Republic · Yesterday
America's Most Popular GOP Governor Trails Democratic Rival: Latest Polls
For most governors who have topped popularity rankings for more than three years, reelection would look like a safe bet, but for Vermont Governor Phil Scott, holding on to his seat is getting harder, according to a new poll. A new University of New Hampshire …
Biztoc.com · September 25, 2026