Democratic
David Crowley
Major-party general-election nominee.
← all governor races
David Crowley vs. Tom Tiffany: Wisconsin governor election, 2026
David Crowley vs. Tom Tiffany. Incumbent retiring. Democratic hold..
VotePredictor forecast (our model)
David Crowley favored
Likely D
85%
chance to win
D+4.0
predicted margin
Poll-driven model · 6 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology → · Today's article: every poll and forecast →
Republican
Tom Tiffany
Sitting U.S. Representative. Voting record and biography →
Polls
The polls behind it
15 polls · 6 in today's forecast · newest firstDimmed polls are more than 61 days old. They stay on the record, but today's forecast no longer counts them. Each pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain). VotePredictor adjusted (“Our adj.” on small screens) is not a poll: it is our correction of that poll, for its pollster's record in past elections and for registered-voter or all-adult samples. It is the number our forecast reads.
PollsterDateSampleMarginOur adj.VotePredictor adjusted
Other forecasts
VotePredictor (ours)
D 85%
a probability from our model
Cook
Lean D≈ D 75%
as of Oct. 29, 2026
DDHQ
Lean D≈ D 75%
as of Nov. 3, 2026
Fox
Tossup≈ 50%
as of Nov. 1, 2026
IE
Tilt D≈ D 60%
as of Oct. 29, 2026
NBC
Lean D≈ D 75%
as of Nov. 3, 2026
RCP
Tossup≈ 50%
as of Nov. 1, 2026
Sabato
Lean D≈ D 75%
as of Nov. 2, 2026
Silver
Likely D≈ D 90%
as of Nov. 3, 2026
The source we collect records each outlet's rating category, not a probability; some of these outlets run models with their own numbers on their sites. The ≈ figure is the standard conversion of the category (Toss-up 50%, Tilt 60%, Lean 75%, Likely 90%, Solid 99%), the one our scorecard grades them on, not a number they published. They remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Independent models
Win probabilities published by independent statistical models, shown with credit as their terms allow: Who Shows Up (whoshowsup.net), by Kurt Wirth. These are their numbers, not ratings converted by us, and not VotePredictor's. The better-known model forecasters (Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Silver Bulletin, the Economist) don't permit republishing their probabilities, so they appear above by rating only.
Past results
Every Wisconsin election for governor we hold a result for.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
These Black Greek Members Won Big During Midterm Sweep
From the yard to the ballot box, Tuesday’s midterm elections prove that the Divine Nine’s influence reaches far beyond Greek life. Long before election night, our fraternities and sororities were building leaders, mobilizing communities and creating pathways …
The Root · Yesterday
Why Black Governors Should Follow Wes Moore’s Lead on Education
On Nov. 3, Democrats had historic wins in governors’ races around the country. And because no president has the authority to veto a governor’s state budget, every new Democratic governor is a rare opportunity for students of color. Governors propose budgets a…
The Root · November 5, 2026
Why Diverse Leadership Makes America Strong
November’s historic barrier-breakers didn’t win because identity replaced qualifications; they won because voters believed they could deliver. But the real lesson of this election goes beyond proving diversity isn’t the enemy of merit. When our leaders reflec…
The Root · November 5, 2026
Wisconsin Governor Election 2026 Live Results: David Crowley Wins
Follow 2026 Wisconsin governor election results as voters decide which candidate will take over next term.
NBC News · November 5, 2026
David Crowley to become first Black governor of Wisconsin
MILWAUKEE (CBS 58) -- David Crowley, the 40-year-old Milwaukee County executive, is the projected winner of Wisconsin’s race for governor.The governor-elect issued the following statement after declaring
WDJT · November 5, 2026
Blue Cheese For Everyone!
Wisconsin was far from immune to the Bluenami that swept the country. Wisconsin Democrats enjoyed an evening that most state parties could only dream of having. They won every statewide office, flipped both houses of the legislature, and, as if that wasn't en…
Crooksandliars.com · November 4, 2026
From Georgia to Michigan, midterm voters deliver a series of historic firsts
The results of the 2026 midterm elections have delivered a series of historic wins, with candidates across the country breaking barriers — and glass ceilings — at the ballot box. The results come amid a sweeping Democratic victory in a battle for control …
Yahoo Entertainment · November 4, 2026
Rising Political Stars to Watch After the 2026 Midterms
As the results of the 2026 midterm elections come in, more than a handful of breakout winners are poised to reshape America’s political landscape in the new year. From history-makers like Keisha Lance Bottoms to change-makers like Aaron Ford, let’s take a loo…
The Root · November 4, 2026