Democratic
Gabe Vasquez
Incumbent representative for NM-2. Voting record, ideology and biography →
VotePredictor forecast
Gabe Vasquez favored
Lean D · predicted margin D+2.8
66%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
EVEN2026 national environment
D+5.5Model uncertainty
±6.9 pointsFundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.
Republican
Greg Cunningham
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for NM-2. The forecast above therefore uses fundamentals only. A poll table will appear here when matched polls are available.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for NM-2; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
Sheriff says Vasquez had to be shamed into supporting police (Vasquez: Far-left NM-2 Dem representative)
Eddy County Sheriff Matthew Hutchinson is blasting U.S. Rep. Gabe Vasquez after the Democrat congressman’s delayed response to National Police Week, accusing Vasquez of treating law enforcement like an afterthought while officers in southern New Mexico face t…
Freerepublic.com · June 17, 2026
WelcomeFest’s Moderate Politics Are Stuck in the Past
On Wednesday, the Welcome PAC, a center-left political action committee favored by the proponents of the abundance and popularism movements, held its third annual “WelcomeFest” gathering in Washington, D.C. It was a moderate sort of mess-around, the kind of p…
The New Republic · June 6, 2026
Marine combat veteran bets big on Hispanic outreach in bid to flip Dem-held House seat
GOP congressional candidate Cunningham is betting his military background and Hispanic roots can flip a key New Mexico district held by Rep. Gabe Vasquez.
Fox News · June 1, 2026
‘Moderate’ Dem's unearthed ‘deconstruct’ law enforcement comments draw fire from GOP critics
New Mexico Democrat Gabe Vasquez is accused of hypocrisy after 2020 defund the police posts resurface amid his new pro-law enforcement messaging.
Fox News · May 23, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗