Democratic
Gabe Vasquez
Incumbent representative for NM-2. Voting record, ideology and biography →
VotePredictor forecast
Gabe Vasquez favored
Likely D · predicted margin D+9.5
92%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
EVEN2026 national environment
D+6.3Model uncertainty
±6.9 pointsFundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.
Republican
Greg Cunningham
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMargin
SurveyUSA2026-09-02D+3.0
Shown for context. The forecast above is fundamentals-only and does not use these polls: tested against 2016–2024, a poll-driven rule beat fundamentals only because of a single wave cycle and reversed without it. See methodology.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for NM-2; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in New Mexico's 2nd district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
'Everybody should feel insulted': NM Rep. BLASTS Trump floating renaming the state to 'New America'
President Trump went on a posting spree about renaming New Mexico to “New America." Rep. Gabe Vasquez (D-NM) joins Alicia ...
Biztoc.com · September 9, 2026
Headline — Poll: Virtual Tie in New Mexico Swing Seat GOP Seeks to Flip from Dems
A new SurveyUSA poll released this week shows Democrat Rep. Gabe Vasquez leading Republican challenger Greg Cunningham by three points in New Mexico's 2nd Congressional District, a margin inside the survey's error range. The post Headline — Poll: Virtual Tie …
Breitbart News · September 5, 2026
Who Are the Democrats Who Joined Republicans to Condemn Socialism?
Eight Democrats defied their party and voted with Republicans to condemn socialism. Their names – and the politics behind their votes – stand out. The House passed the Republican-led resolution 220-192, with Republicans joined by eight Democrats. Two addit…
The Root · September 2, 2026
Sheriff says Vasquez had to be shamed into supporting police (Vasquez: Far-left NM-2 Dem representative)
Eddy County Sheriff Matthew Hutchinson is blasting U.S. Rep. Gabe Vasquez after the Democrat congressman’s delayed response to National Police Week, accusing Vasquez of treating law enforcement like an afterthought while officers in southern New Mexico face t…
Freerepublic.com · June 17, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗