Democratic
Gabe Vasquez
Incumbent representative for NM-2. Voting record, ideology and biography →
VotePredictor forecast
Gabe Vasquez favored
Lean D · predicted margin D+5.0
79%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+2.02026 national environment
D+6.6District polls
1, averaging D+3.0Forecast spread
±6.1 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). The 1 district poll are blended in by inverse variance, about 39% of the weight: the model alone said D+6.3.
Republican
Greg Cunningham
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMargin
SurveyUSA2026-09-02D+3.0
These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 39% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for NM-2; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in New Mexico's 2nd district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
'Everybody should feel insulted': NM Rep. BLASTS Trump floating renaming the state to 'New America'
President Trump went on a posting spree about renaming New Mexico to “New America." Rep. Gabe Vasquez (D-NM) joins Alicia ...
Biztoc.com · September 9, 2026
Headline — Poll: Virtual Tie in New Mexico Swing Seat GOP Seeks to Flip from Dems
A new SurveyUSA poll released this week shows Democrat Rep. Gabe Vasquez leading Republican challenger Greg Cunningham by three points in New Mexico's 2nd Congressional District, a margin inside the survey's error range. The post Headline — Poll: Virtual Tie …
Breitbart News · September 5, 2026
Who Are the Democrats Who Joined Republicans to Condemn Socialism?
Eight Democrats defied their party and voted with Republicans to condemn socialism. Their names – and the politics behind their votes – stand out. The House passed the Republican-led resolution 220-192, with Republicans joined by eight Democrats. Two addit…
The Root · September 2, 2026
Sheriff says Vasquez had to be shamed into supporting police (Vasquez: Far-left NM-2 Dem representative)
Eddy County Sheriff Matthew Hutchinson is blasting U.S. Rep. Gabe Vasquez after the Democrat congressman’s delayed response to National Police Week, accusing Vasquez of treating law enforcement like an afterthought while officers in southern New Mexico face t…
Freerepublic.com · June 17, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗