VotePredictor
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New Mexico District 1 election, 2026

Melanie Stansbury vs. Didi Okpareke. Today's article: every forecast for this race →

VotePredictor forecast
Melanie Stansbury favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+21.2
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
D+13.0
2026 national environment
D+8.0
District polls
1, averaging D+18.0
Forecast spread
±6.1 points

Margin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). The 1 district poll are blended in by inverse variance, about 39% of the weight: the model alone said D+23.3.

Republican

Didi Okpareke

Major-party general-election nominee.

Polls

The polls behind it

1 poll · newest first

Each pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain).

PollsterDateMargin
Research & Polling Inc.Grade B+10-09D+18.0

These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 39% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.

Campaign money

FEC reports through October 14, 2026
Melanie StansburyDEM · incumbent$1.7M raised
Spent $1.6MCash on hand $311k34% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. 314 ACTION IMPACT SLATE$12k
  2. NEW MEXICO HOUSE VICTORY FUND 2026$10k
  3. CADDEN, WENDYN$9k
  4. POTTER, DEBORAH D.$8k
  5. AK-CHIN INDIAN COMMUNITY$7k

Industries

  1. Unemployed$436k
  2. Self-Employed & Freelance$75k
  3. Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$28k
  4. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$22k
  5. Legal & Professional Services$19k

States

  1. NM$535k
  2. CA$52k
  3. DC$32k
  4. TX$27k
  5. VA$12k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗
Didi OkparekeREP$175k raised
Spent $117kCash on hand $58k16% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. YATES, HARVEY E JR$7k
  2. YATES, JANICE$7k
  3. HISE, NEIL$7k
  4. NICKELL, ROBERT$5k
  5. HISE, TY JUANA$5k

Industries

  1. Retired$38k
  2. Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals$4k
  3. Self-Employed & Freelance$3k
  4. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$2k
  5. Homemaker$2k

States

  1. NM$79k
  2. TX$10k
  3. CA$10k
  4. AZ$9k
  5. IN$4k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗

What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for NM-1; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Cook Political Report
View House ratings ↗
Inside Elections
View House ratings ↗
Sabato's Crystal Ball
View House analysis ↗

Past results

Every election in New Mexico's 1st district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.

YearWinnerMargin
2022Melanie Ann Stansbury(D)D+11.5
2021Melanie Ann Stansbury(D)D+24.7
2020Debra A. Haaland(D)D+16.4
2018Debra A. Haaland(D)D+22.8
2016Michelle Lujan Grisham(D)D+30.3
2012Michelle Lujan Grisham(D)D+18.3
2010Martin Heinrich(D)D+3.6
2008Martin Heinrich(D)D+11.3
2006Heather A. Wilson(R)R+0.4
2004Heather A. Wilson(R)R+8.9
2002Heather A. Wilson(R)R+10.7

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Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗

Nearby in the directory: NJ-9 · NM-2