New Mexico District 1 election, 2026

Melanie Stansbury vs. Didi Okpareke.

VotePredictor forecast

Melanie Stansbury favored

Safe D · predicted margin D+23.3

100%

chance to win

2024 presidential lean

D+13.2

2026 national environment

D+6.3

Model uncertainty

±6.9 points

Fundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.

Democratic

Melanie Stansbury

Incumbent representative for NM-1. Voting record, ideology and biography →

Republican

Didi Okpareke

Major-party general-election nominee.

Polls

No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for NM-1. The forecast above uses fundamentals only.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for NM-1; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Cook Political Report

View House ratings ↗

Inside Elections

View House ratings ↗

Sabato's Crystal Ball

View House analysis ↗

Past results

Every election in New Mexico's 1st district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.

YearWinnerMargin

2022Melanie Ann Stansbury(D)D+11.5

2021Melanie Ann Stansbury(D)D+24.7

2020Debra A. Haaland(D)D+16.4

2018Debra A. Haaland(D)D+22.8

2016Michelle Lujan Grisham(D)D+30.3

2012Michelle Lujan Grisham(D)D+18.3

2010Martin Heinrich(D)D+3.6

2008Martin Heinrich(D)D+11.3

2006Heather A. Wilson(R)R+0.4

2004Heather A. Wilson(R)R+8.9

2002Heather A. Wilson(R)R+10.7

Candidate news

Beaten-down reps make futile Trump admission as they flee DC

WASHINGTON — Will President Donald Trump be more empowered now that Speaker Mike Johnson gaveled the U.S. House of Representatives out of session until after November’s elections? Not necessarily, according to congressional Democrats who are bracing for what …

Raw Story · September 19, 2026

‘Fake historian’ exposed as mastermind behind Trump’s Smithsonian obsession: report

President Donald Trump's moves to discredit the Smithsonian Museum of American History are being driven by a notorious Christian nationalist "fake historian," according to a new report. According to Judd Legum's Popular Information, Trump's "Restoring Trust i…

Raw Story · July 29, 2026

Rep. Stansbury urges Congress to ‘STEP IN AT THIS MOMENT’ of escalation in the Iran war

Rep. Melanie Stansbury (D-NM), member of the House Oversight Committee, joins Alex Witt to discuss the two U.S. service ...

Biztoc.com · July 18, 2026

Stansbury cries gerrymandering again after Dems carved up NM (No Pub congressional representative since 2020)

U.S. Rep. Melanie Stansbury is doubling down on her gerrymandering fundraising pitch, again accusing Republicans of trying to “deny representation” while ignoring the political reality right here in New Mexico: Democrats used total control of Santa Fe to redr…

Freerepublic.com · June 17, 2026

Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗

Nearby in the directory: NJ-9 · NM-2