Marketing Resource Group (MRG)
Graded against the actual result across 16 races (from 20 polls, through 2020).
Head-to-head vs VotePredictor Elections
The fair, apples-to-apples test: on the 13 races Marketing Resource Group (MRG) actually polled, how its final poll's margin compared to what VotePredictor Elections predicted for those same races.
| Model | Avg miss (pts) | Called right |
|---|---|---|
| Marketing Resource Group (MRG) | 6.39 | 77% |
| VotePredictor Elections | 3.50 | 85% |
VotePredictor Elections aggregates all the pollsters, so it's expected to beat any single one on margin — that's the value of averaging. The honest comparison among forecasters is on the combined board.
Every race (16)
Each race Marketing Resource Group (MRG) polled, scored on its final poll — the call right before the vote — against the actual Dem−Rep result. Click a race for its full detail.
| Race | Their call | Result | Miss | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 MI President | D+5.0 | D+2.8 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 2020 MI Senate | D+2.0 | D+1.7 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2018 MI Governor | D+14.0 | D+9.6 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 2018 MI Senate | D+16.0 | D+6.5 | 9.5 | ✓ |
| 2016 MI President | D+5.0 | R+0.2 | 5.2 | ✗ |
| 2014 MI Governor | R+5.0 | R+4.1 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2014 MI Senate | D+11.0 | D+13.3 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 2012 MI President | D+5.2 | D+9.5 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 2012 MI Senate | D+6.0 | D+20.8 | 14.8 | ✓ |
| 2010 MI-7 House | D+7.0 | R+4.8 | 11.8 | ✗ |
| 2008 MI President | R+3.0 | D+16.5 | 19.5 | ✗ |
| 2006 MI Senate | D+22.0 | D+15.7 | 6.3 | ✓ |
| 2004 MI President | D+2.0 | D+3.4 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2002 MI Governor | D+11.0 | D+4.0 | 7.0 | ✓ |
| 2000 MI President | R+6.0 | D+5.1 | 11.1 | ✗ |
| 2000 MI Senate | R+8.0 | D+1.6 | 9.6 | ✗ |
Accuracy by time to election
Lower is better. Time to election runs right (election week) to left (~2 months out).
By the numbers
| Time to election | Polls | Avg miss | vs field | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3–6 wk | 9 | 5.84 | +0.10 | 67% |
| 6–9 wk | 8 | 7.90 | +1.75 | 75% |
vs field is this pollster's average miss minus all pollsters' at the same lead time — green beats the field, redtrails it. Our historical polls reach ~2 months out; earlier polling isn't in the record.