Democratic
Hallie Shoffner
Major-party general-election nominee.
← all Senate races
Arkansas U.S. Senate election, 2026
Hallie Shoffner vs. Tom Cotton. Incumbent renominated.
VotePredictor forecast
Tom Cotton favored
Lean R · predicted margin R+10.3
75%
chance to win
Poll-driven model · 2 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology →
Republican
Tom Cotton
Incumbent. Voting record and biography →
Other listed candidates
- Jeff Wadlin · Libertarian
Polls
| Pollster | Date | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2040 Strategy Group[30][A] | 2026-07-25 | R+3.0 |
| GrayHouse | 2026-02-09 | R+22.0 |
Other forecasts
Cook
Solid R
IE
Solid R
Sabato
Safe R
WH
Safe R
Econ
Likely R
RCP
Solid R
DDHQ
Safe R
Fox
Solid R
VoteHub
Solid R
FPO
Safe R
ST
Safe R
Published ratings are categorical, not probabilities, and remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Candidate news
Arkansas Democrat Hallie Shoffner Would Defund ICE, Tells Government ‘Don’t Be an A**hole’ on Immigration
Arkansas Democratic Senate candidate Hallie Shoffner, who is challenging Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR), said she would vote to defund ICE as it exists now and accused the government of treating immigrants, including “undocumented” immigrants, as enemies. The post Ar…
Breitbart News · July 9, 2026
Dem Senate nominee distances herself from Kamala Harris ahead of visit: 'Will not be attending'
Hallie Shoffner pushed back on ties to former Vice President Kamala Harris and the national Democratic Party as she challenges Sen. Tom Cotton in Arkansas' Senate race.
Fox News · April 8, 2026
A sixth-generation farmer aims to weed out Sen. Tom Cotton - Arkansas Times
Hallie Shoffner, a sixth-generation farmer, is seeking to unseat Sen. Tom Cotton in her bid for U.S. Senate.
Arkansas Times · May 14, 2025
Cotton Statement Following Passage of Lindsey Graham's Russia Sanctions Bill
Today, Senator Tom Cotton (R-Arkansas) released the following statement after Senate passage of the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia Act of 2026:
Globalsecurity.org · Yesterday
GOP Senator Falsely Claims Abdul El-Sayed Made Offensive 9/11 Remark, Then Backtracks
Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton wasn’t the only Republican to make the mistake.
HuffPost · August 6, 2026
Fed-up Tom Cotton's secret lunch plea to stop talking to reporters leaks
Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR) reportedly used a private Republican lunch this week to caution his colleagues against talking to the press — a warning that, within a day, leaked to the press.Politico's Jordain Carney reported Wednesday that Cotton, "per multiple atte…
Raw Story · August 5, 2026
Cotton to Bessent: Protect Critical Infrastructure from Cyberattacks
Senator Tom Cotton (R-Arkansas) sent a letter to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent asking him to ensure federal tax guidance encourages investment in and modernization of American operational technology, which is the hardware and software that controls critica…
Globalsecurity.org · August 5, 2026
Cotton: I Think China and Russia 'Helping Iran', Might Not Be 'Significant' Help
On Thursday’s broadcast of the Fox News Channel’s “America’s Newsroom,” Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR) said that he thinks “China and Russia are both helping Iran in various ways. They may be indirect, and it may not The post Co…
Breitbart News · July 31, 2026