Democratic
Hallie Shoffner
Major-party general-election nominee.
← all Senate races
Arkansas U.S. Senate election, 2026
Hallie Shoffner vs. Tom Cotton. Incumbent renominated.
VotePredictor forecast
Tom Cotton favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+15.6
96%
chance to win
Poll-driven model · 6 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology →
Republican
Tom Cotton
Incumbent. Voting record and biography →
Other listed candidates
- Jeff Wadlin · Libertarian
Polls
| Pollster | Date | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| J.L. Partners | 2026-08-18 | R+16.0 |
| Silver Bulletin[26] | 2026-08-18 | R+7.1 |
| Race to the WH[35] | 2026-08-18 | R+10.0 |
| 270toWin[34] | 2026-08-18 | R+6.5 |
| 2040 Strategy Group[32][A] | 2026-07-25 | R+3.0 |
| GrayHouse | 2026-02-09 | R+22.0 |
Other forecasts
Cook
Solid R
as of Sep 15, 2026
DDHQ
Safe R
as of Sep 22, 2026
Econ
Likely R
as of Sep 22, 2026
FPO
Safe R
as of Sep 22, 2026
Fox
Solid R
as of Sep 22, 2026
IE
Solid R
as of Sep 17, 2026
RCP
Solid R
as of Sep 20, 2026
Sabato
Safe R
as of Aug 26, 2026
Silver
Solid R
as of Sep 19, 2026
ST
Safe R
as of Sep 21, 2026
Published ratings are categorical, not probabilities, and remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Past results
Every U.S. Senate election in Arkansas we hold a result for. A state elects two senators on separate cycles, so this covers both of its seats, not only the one on the ballot in 2026.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
The Return of the Farmer Politician
Many of the new Democratic candidates making a splash this cycle are the progressives who ran to the left of the party establishment in the primaries and defeated their more centrist counterparts. But there’s another intriguing trend that’s been obscured in a…
The New Republic · Today
Arkansas Democrat Hallie Shoffner Doubles Down on Trading ‘Five Americans’ for One ‘Undocumented Immigrant’
Arkansas Democrat U.S. Senate candidate Hallie Shoffner’s campaign is defending her comments about immigrant farm labor after she said farmers would trade five Americans for one ‘undocumented immigrant,’ but the campaign did not say whether or not Shoffner he…
Breitbart News · Yesterday
Gun-toting Democrat's jaw-dropping boast about illegal migrants detonates in deep red state
Arkansas Democratic Senate candidate Hallie Shoffner voiced her support for illegal immigrant farm workers, arguing that farmers actually prefer them to American workers.
Dailymail.com · September 17, 2026
Arkansas Democrat Hallie Shoffner: ‘We’d Trade Five Americans’ for One ‘Undocumented Immigrant’
Hallie Shoffner, who is running to unseat Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR), defended “undocumented” farm workers as exceptionally hardworking, after previously saying she grew up around “undocumented” farm workers, discussing Mexican H-2A employees on her family farm, …
Breitbart News · September 16, 2026
Arkansas Dem Senate Candidate Donated to Bail Fund Founded by Activist Jailed for Firebombing Cop Cars
The Democratic nominee for Senate in Arkansas, Hallie Shoffner, raised money in the summer of 2020 for a "racial and social justice" bail fund founded by a left-wing activist who was later sentenced to 17 months in prison for her role in a series of firebombi…
Freerepublic.com · September 13, 2026
50+ Rights Groups 'Strongly Urge' Congress to Reject US-Israeli Military Integration in NDAA
A coalition of over 50 rights groups on Thursday wrote to leaders in Congress to "strongly urge" them to reject not only specific proposals in each chamber's version of the next Pentagon budget, but also "any legislation seeking to intertwine US and Israeli d…
Common Dreams · September 4, 2026
Trump wants cheaper beef. Republicans in key races warn his plan goes too far
Senate Republicans, including Tom Cotton and Tim Sheehy, push back on Trump's plan to import 300,000 metric tons of foreign ground beef to lower prices.
Fox News · August 24, 2026
Wait, Are Dems Ahead in ... Arkansas?
You’re reading The TNR Blue Book. Get daily scoops, strategy, and developments inside the liberal ideas factory delivered right to your inbox. Sign up for free.Inside WashingtonDo Democrats have a chance to flip a Senate seat in Arkansas? One poll this week s…
The New Republic · August 21, 2026