Democratic
Hallie Shoffner
Major-party general-election nominee.
← all Senate races
Hallie Shoffner vs. Tom Cotton: Arkansas U.S. Senate election, 2026
Hallie Shoffner vs. Tom Cotton. Incumbent re-elected.
VotePredictor forecast (our model)
Tom Cotton favored
Safe R
99%
chance to win
R+18.9
predicted margin
Poll-driven model · 3 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology → · Today's article: every poll and forecast →
Republican
Tom Cotton
Incumbent. Voting record and biography →
Other listed candidates
- Jeff Wadlin · Libertarian
Polls
The polls behind it
7 polls · 3 in today's forecast · newest firstDimmed polls are more than 61 days old. They stay on the record, but today's forecast no longer counts them. Each pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain). VotePredictor adjusted (“Our adj.” on small screens) is not a poll: it is our correction of that poll, for its pollster's record in past elections and for registered-voter or all-adult samples. It is the number our forecast reads.
PollsterDateSampleMarginOur adj.VotePredictor adjusted
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Tom CottonREP · incumbent$14.5M raised
Spent $15.8MCash on hand $5.1MDebts $105k22% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$932k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$270k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$254k
- Legal & Professional Services$133k
- Homemaker$95k
States
- AR$509k
- CA$427k
- FL$298k
- TX$265k
- NY$219k
Hallie ShoffnerDEM$4.0M raised
Spent $3.3MCash on hand $757k33% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$536k
- Unemployed$526k
- Not Reported$397k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$286k
- Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals$51k
States
- AR$2.0M
- CA$100k
- MA$70k
- NY$69k
- TX$39k
Jeff WadlinLIB$80k raised
Spent $74kCash on hand $6k2% from donors under $200Self-funded $71k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$2k
- Government$1k
- Retired$1k
- Retail, Food & Consumer Goods$500
States
- AR$4k
- AA$1k
- OR$1k
- CA$500
- NY$500
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The Senate forecast does not read these figures. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
VotePredictor (ours)
R 99%
a probability from our model
Cook
Solid R≈ R 99%
as of Nov 2, 2026
DDHQ
Safe R≈ R 99%
as of Nov 3, 2026
Econ
Safe R≈ R 99%
as of Nov 3, 2026
FPO
Safe R≈ R 99%
as of Nov 2, 2026
Fox
Solid R≈ R 99%
as of Nov 1, 2026
IE
Solid R≈ R 99%
as of Oct 29, 2026
MS NOW
Safe R≈ R 99%
as of Oct 29, 2026
NBC
Solid R≈ R 99%
as of Nov 3, 2026
RCP
Solid R≈ R 99%
as of Nov 2, 2026
Sabato
Safe R≈ R 99%
as of Nov 2, 2026
Silver
Solid R≈ R 99%
as of Nov 3, 2026
ST
Safe R≈ R 99%
as of Nov 2, 2026
The source we collect records each outlet's rating category, not a probability; some of these outlets run models with their own numbers on their sites. The ≈ figure is the standard conversion of the category (Toss-up 50%, Tilt 60%, Lean 75%, Likely 90%, Solid 99%), the one our scorecard grades them on, not a number they published. They remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Independent models
Win probabilities published by independent statistical models, shown with credit as their terms allow: Who Shows Up (whoshowsup.net), by Kurt Wirth. These are their numbers, not ratings converted by us, and not VotePredictor's. The better-known model forecasters (Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Silver Bulletin, the Economist) don't permit republishing their probabilities, so they appear above by rating only.
Past results
Every U.S. Senate election in Arkansas we hold a result for. A state elects two senators on separate cycles, so this covers both of its seats, not only the one on the ballot in 2026.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Republican Tom Cotton Wins Third Term in Arkansas Senate Race
Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR) secured another six-year term in the U.S. Senate on Tuesday, defeating Democrat Hallie Shoffner in Arkansas. The post Republican Tom Cotton Wins Third Term in Arkansas Senate Race appeared first on Breitbart.
Breitbart News · November 4, 2026
In Arkansas, Democrats see an opening at the edge of the competitive midterms map - NPR
In Arkansas, Democrats see an opening at the edge of the competitive midterms mapNPR Rally for Hallie in Texarkana goes off without a hitchAshley County Ledger Arkansas Democrats have their best opening in years. What if they still can’t win?News From The Sta…
Slashdot.org · October 25, 2026
Former Arkansas Farmer Hallie Shoffner Lost Her Family Farm. Now She’s Running to Unseat Sen. Tom Cotton.
Hallie Shoffner grew up in the Arkansas Delta, left to earn a bachelor’s degree at Vanderbilt, then came home to become a farmer. She followed her parents into a business that had been in the family for 150 years. In 2025, she was forced to close the farm. No…
Ms. Magazine · October 13, 2026
Former Employee: Democrat Hallie Shoffner Knowingly Hired Illegal Aliens, Used Children’s Names on W-2s
A former senior employee of Arkansas Democrat Senate nominee Hallie Shoffner says she knowingly employed three illegal aliens at her family farming business, including one full-time worker whose employment he repeatedly discussed with Shoffner as a risk, cont…
Breitbart News · October 8, 2026
A Prairie Populist in Crimson-Red Arkansas
Farmer and Democrat Hallie Shoffner is taking on Big Ag in a long-shot Senate race against Republican Tom Cotton. The post A Prairie Populist in Crimson-Red Arkansas appeared first on The American Prospect.
The American Prospect · October 8, 2026
Dems win Oregon Senate race, GOP takes Arkansas
Republican Senator Tom Cotton and Democratic Senator Jeff Merkley both won reelection to the United States Senate during the US midterm elections, securing victories for their respective parties in Ar...
Biztoc.com · November 4, 2026
Daylight Savings Time 2026: Could this year be the last year Americans change their clocks twice a year?
Millions of Americans will change their clocks on November 1, 2026, marking the end of daylight saving time. Lawmakers are considering abandoning this twice-yearly clock adjustment, with a proposal approved by the House. However, the Senate expresses concerns…
The Times of India · November 1, 2026
Daylight saving time: When do clocks 'fall back' an hour?
Daylight saving time will end this weekend as scheduled, bringing sunsets before 5 p.m. to some cities. At 2 a.m. Sunday, clocks in 48 states will fall back one hour, giving back the hour taken in springtime .The change will give many an extra hour in bed an…
Yahoo Entertainment · October 29, 2026