Democratic
John Hickenlooper
Incumbent. Voting record and biography →
← all Senate races
John Hickenlooper vs. Mark Baisley: Colorado U.S. Senate election, 2026
John Hickenlooper vs. Mark Baisley. Incumbent re-elected.
VotePredictor forecast (our model)
John Hickenlooper favored
Safe D
99%
chance to win
D+19.1
predicted margin
Poll-driven model · 4 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology → · Today's article: every poll and forecast →
Republican
Mark Baisley
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Bob Chew · Forward
- Blake Huber · Libertarian
- Adam Withrow · Unity
Polls
The polls behind it
4 polls · newest firstEach pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain). VotePredictor adjusted (“Our adj.” on small screens) is not a poll: it is our correction of that poll, for its pollster's record in past elections and for registered-voter or all-adult samples. It is the number our forecast reads.
PollsterDateSampleMarginOur adj.VotePredictor adjusted
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026John HickenlooperDEM · incumbent$11.7M raised
Spent $11.8MCash on hand $1.6M19% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$1.9M
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$501k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$391k
- Legal & Professional Services$228k
- Technology & Communications$157k
States
- CO$1.5M
- NY$627k
- CA$587k
- TX$268k
- MA$268k
Bob ChewOTH$3.6M raised
Spent $3.4MCash on hand $235kDebts $146k0% from donors under $200Self-funded $3.5M
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$15k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$4k
- Homemaker$4k
- Legal & Professional Services$1k
- Government$250
States
- CO$16k
- CT$9k
- MA$6k
- IN$6k
- FL$4k
Mark BaisleyREP$138k raised
Spent $111kCash on hand $28k21% from donors under $200Self-funded $2k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
- COORS, JEFF$14k
- ARSENAULT, JOHN$7k
- TARBUCK, GREG$7k
- RINALDI, LUCY$5k
- NAGEL, RALPH$5k
Industries
- Retired$38k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$7k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$4k
- Education & Academia$1k
States
- CO$91k
- SC$7k
- PA$762
- LA$450
- IA$208
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The Senate forecast does not read these figures. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
VotePredictor (ours)
D 99%
a probability from our model
Cook
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Nov 2, 2026
DDHQ
Safe D≈ D 99%
as of Nov 3, 2026
Econ
Safe D≈ D 99%
as of Nov 3, 2026
FPO
Safe D≈ D 99%
as of Nov 2, 2026
Fox
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Nov 1, 2026
IE
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Oct 29, 2026
MS NOW
Safe D≈ D 99%
as of Oct 29, 2026
NBC
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Nov 3, 2026
RCP
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Nov 2, 2026
Sabato
Safe D≈ D 99%
as of Nov 2, 2026
Silver
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Nov 3, 2026
ST
Safe D≈ D 99%
as of Nov 2, 2026
The source we collect records each outlet's rating category, not a probability; some of these outlets run models with their own numbers on their sites. The ≈ figure is the standard conversion of the category (Toss-up 50%, Tilt 60%, Lean 75%, Likely 90%, Solid 99%), the one our scorecard grades them on, not a number they published. They remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Independent models
Win probabilities published by independent statistical models, shown with credit as their terms allow: Who Shows Up (whoshowsup.net), by Kurt Wirth. These are their numbers, not ratings converted by us, and not VotePredictor's. The better-known model forecasters (Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Silver Bulletin, the Economist) don't permit republishing their probabilities, so they appear above by rating only.
Past results
Every U.S. Senate election in Colorado we hold a result for. A state elects two senators on separate cycles, so this covers both of its seats, not only the one on the ballot in 2026.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Hickenlooper Headed for Landslide in Colorado
A new University of Colorado/YouGov poll in Colorado finds John Hickenlooper (D) leading Mark Baisley (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 57% to 39%. Colorado Senate Race John Hickenlooper (D) 57% Mark Baisley (R) 39% University of Colorado/YouGov poll · likely …
Politicalwire.com · November 2, 2026
GOP shifts midterm priorities as concerns turn to defending seats in red states
Republicans are playing defense deep in their own territory as voter anger over price hikes puts more House and Senate seats in play in the midterms.New rounds of big spending, visits from Trump administration officials and private conversations among top GOP…
Yahoo Entertainment · September 22, 2026
Independent Voters Surging: Now The Candidates Are Coming
Independence and independents have never been more popular. Gallup found a record 45% of U.S. adults identified as independents in 2025, compared to 27% each for Dems and Republicans. Registration rolls tell the story: CO's unaffiliated voters passed 50% in S…
Crooksandliars.com · September 17, 2026
'Sadistic and Cruel': Democratic Lawmakers Rail Against $20 Million for ICE's Electric Shock Gloves
Democrats in both chambers of Congress this week have joined rights advocates in forcefully denouncing plans for US Immigration and Customs Enforcement to spend up to $20 million on "gloves that can deliver painful electric shocks."The Department of Homeland …
Common Dreams · August 13, 2026
Protecting Workers From AI Is Easier Said Than Done
Editor’s Note: Welcome to The TNR Blue Book. It’s our new daily newsletter that covers Congress and much more, but with a distinctly TNR twist: Our focus will be strictly on Democrats, liberal and progressive groups, and the fight to take back power and save …
The New Republic · August 7, 2026
Mark Baisley lost his bid for Colorado Senate. But MAGA extremism is here to stay
When a pro-Trump mob ravaged the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, Mark Baisley offered an explanation that anticipated what Alex Jones would tell his audience a week later. “It does not make any sense to me that Trump patriots would storm the U.S. Capitol to int…
Biztoc.com · November 4, 2026
CO State Sen. Mark Baisley Says 'LGBTQ Folks' Are In 'Rebellion Against Nature'
Colorado state Sen. Mark Baisley, who's running for governor, says there is "a larger than representative population of LGBTQ folks" in the CO legislature because they are "in rebellion against nature" and trying to use power of government to fix the "brokenn…
Peoplefor.org · September 19, 2025
Colorado Springs Shooting Comes As Right-Wing Escalating War On LGBTQ People, Probably A Coincidence
Just before midnight Saturday, a 22-year-old entered Club Q in Colorado Springs, Colorado. He immediately opened fire with a long rifle, murdering at least five people and injuring 25 others. The LGBTQ nightclub was hosting a drag show and the attack coincide…
Wonkette.com · November 21, 2022