Democratic
Josh Turek
Major-party general-election nominee.
VotePredictor forecast
Ashley Hinson favored
Toss-up · predicted margin R+1.6
60%
chance to win
Poll-driven model · 37 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology →
Republican
Ashley Hinson
Sitting U.S. Representative. Voting record and biography →
Other listed candidates
- Thomas Laehn · Libertarian
Polls
| Pollster | Date | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 270toWin[120] | 2026-09-22 | D+0.4 |
| Marist University | 2026-09-20 | D+8.0 |
| FiftyPlusOne[122] | 2026-09-20 | D+0.5 |
| RealClearPolitics[124] | 2026-09-20 | D+0.4 |
| Decision Desk HQ[121] | 2026-09-20 | D+1.7 |
| Race to the WH[123] | 2026-09-20 | D+1.6 |
| Marist College[125] | 2026-09-20 | D+8.0 |
| Silver Bulletin[90] | 2026-09-18 | D+0.7 |
| Trafalgar Group[126] | 2026-09-18 | R+2.0 |
| co/efficient | 2026-09-16 | R+4.0 |
| Cygnal[128][E] | 2026-09-11 | EVEN |
| Rasmussen Reports[129] | 2026-09-10 | D+5.0 |
| YouGov | 2026-09-08 | D+1.0 |
| Emerson College | 2026-09-01 | R+5.0 |
| Global Strategy Group[132][B] | 2026-08-31 | D+4.0 |
| Wedgewood Polls[133] | 2026-08-29 | R+2.0 |
| Abacus Data[134] | 2026-08-28 | D+6.0 |
| Suffolk University | 2026-08-23 | R+4.6 |
| Race to the WH[98] | 2026-08-06 | R+1.9 |
| Emerson College | 2026-08-04 | R+3.0 |
| RealClearPolitics[99] | 2026-08-04 | R+0.7 |
| New York Times/Siena University[138] | 2026-06-27 | R+2.0 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2026-06-27 | D+4.0 |
| New York Times/Siena University[102] | 2026-06-27 | R+2.0 |
| The New York Times/Siena University | 2026-06-27 | R+2.0 |
| New York Times/Siena University[87] | 2026-06-27 | R+2.0 |
| Cygnal | 2026-06-19 | R+1.8 |
| Global Strategy Group[89][B] | 2026-06-11 | D+2.0 |
| Global Strategy Group[104][B] | 2026-06-11 | D+2.0 |
| Global Strategy Group[140][B] | 2026-06-11 | D+2.0 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2026-06-04 | EVEN |
| Echelon Insights | 2026-04-09 | D+1.0 |
| GQR[107][B] | 2026-03-16 | R+4.0 |
| GBAO | 2026-03-16 | R+4.0 |
| GQR[92][B] | 2026-03-16 | R+4.0 |
| GQR[143][B] | 2026-03-16 | R+4.0 |
| Change Research | 2026-01-11 | R+3.0 |
Other forecasts
Cook
Tossup
as of Sep 15, 2026
DDHQ
Tossup
as of Sep 22, 2026
Econ
Tossup
as of Sep 22, 2026
FPO
Tossup
as of Sep 22, 2026
Fox
Tossup
as of Sep 22, 2026
IE
Tilt R
as of Sep 17, 2026
RCP
Tossup
as of Sep 20, 2026
Sabato
Lean R
as of Aug 26, 2026
Silver
Tossup
as of Sep 19, 2026
ST
Tossup
as of Sep 21, 2026
Published ratings are categorical, not probabilities, and remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Past results
Every U.S. Senate election in Iowa we hold a result for. A state elects two senators on separate cycles, so this covers both of its seats, not only the one on the ballot in 2026.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Ashley Hinson Turns on Trump as Iowa Poll Gives Josh Turek 8 Point Lead
Republican Representative Ashley Hinson publicly broke with President Donald Trump as she called for an immediate end to the Iran war on Monday, hours before new polling was released showing her trailing Democrat Josh Turek in Iowa's U.S. Senate race. Hinson,…
Biztoc.com · Today
GOP shifts midterm priorities as concerns turn to defending seats in red states
Republicans are playing defense deep in their own territory as voter anger over price hikes puts more House and Senate seats in play in the midterms.New rounds of big spending, visits from Trump administration officials and private conversations among top GOP…
Yahoo Entertainment · Today
Republican Senate Nominee Who Backed Trump’s War Now Eating Her Words
The Republican Senate nominee in Iowa is trying to criticize the Iran war’s effect on ordinary people—without mentioning President Trump or her own voting history.“Iowans are being squeezed and shouldn’t have to foot the bill at the pump or the checkout line …
The New Republic · Yesterday
The 2026 midterms are 6 weeks away. What the latest polls say.
The 2026 midterm elections are just 43 days away. All of the key primaries have been decided. With summer officially behind us, the fall campaign is now underway.So where do things stand — nationwide — in the race to control Congress? Which party has a better…
Yahoo Entertainment · Yesterday
Secret memo reveals GOP super PAC panicking over red state Senate seat it swore was safe
The top Republican super PAC in the fight for the Senate is privately sounding the alarm over Iowa, a state President Donald Trump carried by more than 13 points, according to a confidential memo pitched to donors.The Senate Leadership Fund, the leading GOP-a…
Raw Story · Yesterday
GOP Senate Candidates in Michigan, Iowa Push for End to Iran War
Republican Senate candidates Mike Rogers of Michigan and Ashley Hinson of Iowa called Monday for an end to the war in Iran and proposed steps to lower fuel costs in the meantime. The post GOP Senate Candidates in Michigan, Iowa Push for End to Iran War appear…
Breitbart News · Today
Ken Paxton snubbed from Texas GOP fundraisers as polls spell trouble: report
Former President George W. Bush and Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) are teaming up to raise money for Senate Republicans nationwide, but they've pointedly left one candidate off the guest list: Ken Paxton, the GOP's own Senate nominee in their home state of Texas.Cor…
Raw Story · Today