Democratic
Josh Turek
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Josh Turek vs. Ashley Hinson: Iowa U.S. Senate election, 2026
Josh Turek vs. Ashley Hinson. Incumbent retiring. Democratic gain..
VotePredictor forecast (our model)
Ashley Hinson favored
Toss-up
55%
chance to win
R+0.4
predicted margin
Poll-driven model · 28 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology → · Today's article: every poll and forecast →
Republican
Ashley Hinson
Sitting U.S. Representative. Voting record and biography →
Other listed candidates
- Thomas Laehn · Libertarian
Polls
The polls behind it
41 polls · 28 in today's forecast · newest firstDimmed polls are more than 61 days old. They stay on the record, but today's forecast no longer counts them. Each pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain). VotePredictor adjusted (“Our adj.” on small screens) is not a poll: it is our correction of that poll, for its pollster's record in past elections and for registered-voter or all-adult samples. It is the number our forecast reads.
PollsterDateSampleMarginOur adj.VotePredictor adjusted
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Josh TurekDEM$24.3M raised
Spent $21.2MCash on hand $3.1M36% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$5.3M
- Retired$1.2M
- Self-Employed & Freelance$941k
- Legal & Professional Services$328k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$249k
States
- CA$2.3M
- IA$1.7M
- NY$1.0M
- MA$782k
- MD$403k
Thomas LaehnLIB$84k raised
Spent $75kCash on hand $9k18% from donors under $200Self-funded $1k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$22k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$5k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$4k
- Wholesale & Distribution$500
- Education & Academia$150
States
- IA$19k
- CA$9k
- CO$4k
- MA$4k
- NM$4k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The Senate forecast does not read these figures. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
VotePredictor (ours)
R 55%
a probability from our model
Cook
Tossup≈ 50%
as of Nov 2, 2026
DDHQ
Tossup≈ 50%
as of Nov 3, 2026
Econ
Lean R≈ R 75%
as of Nov 3, 2026
FPO
Tossup≈ 50%
as of Nov 2, 2026
Fox
Tossup≈ 50%
as of Nov 1, 2026
IE
Tossup≈ 50%
as of Oct 29, 2026
MS NOW
Lean R≈ R 75%
as of Oct 29, 2026
NBC
Tossup≈ 50%
as of Nov 3, 2026
RCP
Tossup≈ 50%
as of Nov 2, 2026
Sabato
Lean R≈ R 75%
as of Nov 2, 2026
Silver
Tossup≈ 50%
as of Nov 3, 2026
ST
Tossup≈ 50%
as of Nov 2, 2026
The source we collect records each outlet's rating category, not a probability; some of these outlets run models with their own numbers on their sites. The ≈ figure is the standard conversion of the category (Toss-up 50%, Tilt 60%, Lean 75%, Likely 90%, Solid 99%), the one our scorecard grades them on, not a number they published. They remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Independent models
Win probabilities published by independent statistical models, shown with credit as their terms allow: Who Shows Up (whoshowsup.net), by Kurt Wirth. These are their numbers, not ratings converted by us, and not VotePredictor's. The better-known model forecasters (Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Silver Bulletin, the Economist) don't permit republishing their probabilities, so they appear above by rating only.
Past results
Every U.S. Senate election in Iowa we hold a result for. A state elects two senators on separate cycles, so this covers both of its seats, not only the one on the ballot in 2026.
YearWinnerMargin
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