Democratic
Josh Turek
Major-party general-election nominee.
VotePredictor forecast
Ashley Hinson favored
Lean R · predicted margin R+4.4
67%
chance to win
Poll-driven model · 15 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology →
Republican
Ashley Hinson
Sitting U.S. Representative. Voting record and biography →
Other listed candidates
- Thomas Laehn · Libertarian
Polls
| Pollster | Date | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| Race to the WH[96] | 2026-08-06 | R+1.9 |
| Emerson College | 2026-08-04 | R+3.0 |
| RealClearPolitics[97] | 2026-08-04 | R+0.7 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2026-06-27 | D+4.0 |
| The New York Times/Siena University | 2026-06-27 | R+2.0 |
| New York Times/Siena University[100] | 2026-06-27 | R+2.0 |
| New York Times/Siena University[87] | 2026-06-27 | R+2.0 |
| Cygnal | 2026-06-19 | R+1.8 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2026-06-11 | D+2.0 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2026-06-04 | EVEN |
| Echelon Insights | 2026-04-09 | D+1.0 |
| GQR[92][B] | 2026-03-16 | R+4.0 |
| GQR[105][B] | 2026-03-16 | R+4.0 |
| GBAO | 2026-03-16 | R+4.0 |
| Change Research | 2026-01-11 | R+3.0 |
Other forecasts
Cook
Lean R
IE
Tilt R
Sabato
Lean R
WH
Tossup
Econ
Lean R
RCP
Tossup
DDHQ
Tossup
Fox
Tossup
VoteHub
Lean R
FPO
Tossup
ST
Lean R
Published ratings are categorical, not probabilities, and remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Candidate news
Iowa’s Josh Turek reveals advice Obama shared after Senate endorsement
One of Iowa’s U.S. Senate candidates, Josh Turek, sat down with MS NOW’s Jen Psaki for his first interview since receiving an endorsement from President Barack Obama, the last Democratic presidential candidate to win the state, which he carried in 2008 and 20…
Biztoc.com · July 30, 2026
Obama endorses Democratic Iowa state rep running for US Senate against Trump-backed House Republican
Former President Barack Obama endorsed Democratic Iowa state Rep. Josh Turek for U.S. Senate as the candidate runs against Trump-backed Republican U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson.
Fox News · July 30, 2026
Josh Turek's Chances of Beating GOP in Iowa as Obama Issues Endorsement
Former President Barack Obama endorsed Democratic Senate candidate Josh Turek on Wednesday in a video of the two playing basketball, recalling his two Iowa victories and encouraging voters to back Turek's bid for the U.S. Senate. Iowa, a state that backed Oba…
Biztoc.com · July 29, 2026
Obama got ‘whooped’ by a Paralympian on the basketball court — now he wants Iowa to send him to the Senate
Iowa Democrat Josh Turek got an assist Wednesday from former President Barack Obama, who endorsed his bid to flip a Republican-held U.S. Senate seat in a video of the two shooting hoops. The seat held by retiring two-term Sen. Joni Ernst is among the tough ta…
Biztoc.com · July 29, 2026
Obama got ‘whooped’ by a Paralympian on the basketball court — now he wants Iowa to send him to the Senate
“I know a little something about winning Iowa,” Obama said while endorsing Josh Turek for Senate.
Fortune · July 29, 2026
Democrats’ Plan for Ending the Iran War
Editor’s Note: Welcome to The TNR Blue Book. It’s our new daily newsletter that covers Congress and much more, but with a distinctly TNR twist: Our focus will be strictly on Democrats, liberal and progressive groups, and the fight to take back power and save …
The New Republic · July 22, 2026
Dem Senate hopeful ripped as 'absentee legislator' after missing nearly 60% of votes
Ashley Hinson blasted Josh Turek for missing 58% of Iowa House votes while collecting over $20,000 in per diem as the Iowa Senate race heats up.
Fox News · July 21, 2026
MAGA's bacon crusader funded by industry she wants to deregulate: report
A Trump-backed congresswoman is taking home tens of thousands of dollars from an industry she's fighting to deregulate, according to The Daily Beast.According to an analysis by The Daily Beast, the pork industry is giving money to Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-IA) wh…
Raw Story · July 15, 2026