Democratic
Juliana Stratton
Major-party general-election nominee.
← all Senate races
Juliana Stratton vs. Don Tracy: Illinois U.S. Senate election, 2026
Juliana Stratton vs. Don Tracy. Incumbent retiring. Democratic hold..
VotePredictor forecast (our model)
Juliana Stratton favored
Safe D
99%
chance to win
D+13.6
predicted margin
Poll-driven model · 4 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology → · Today's article: every poll and forecast →
Republican
Don Tracy
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Whitfield Harrington Jr. · Independent
Polls
The polls behind it
4 polls · newest firstEach pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain). VotePredictor adjusted (“Our adj.” on small screens) is not a poll: it is our correction of that poll, for its pollster's record in past elections and for registered-voter or all-adult samples. It is the number our forecast reads.
PollsterDateSampleMarginOur adj.VotePredictor adjusted
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Juliana StrattonDEM$7.2M raised
Spent $5.7MCash on hand $1.5M19% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$1.4M
- Self-Employed & Freelance$373k
- Legal & Professional Services$219k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$191k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$120k
States
- IL$2.6M
- CA$281k
- NY$204k
- MA$129k
- FL$102k
Don TracyREP$4.9M raised
Spent $4.4MCash on hand $483kDebts $4.3M1% from donors under $200Self-funded $4.3M
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
- TRACY, DON$2.0M
- LAWSON, LAWRENCE$10k
- BUNN, ROBERT$8k
- BUCKLEY, JEAN$7k
- STARK, DAVID$7k
Industries
- Retired$232k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$28k
- Government$25k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$20k
- Wholesale & Distribution$15k
States
- IL$397k
- FL$64k
- MO$30k
- NE$7k
- MA$4k
Whitfield Harrington Jr.IND$143k raised
Spent $124kCash on hand $19kDebts $74k17% from donors under $200Self-funded $77k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$8k
- Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals$4k
- Defense & Aerospace$2k
- Not Reported$1k
- Government$650
States
- GA$11k
- NY$4k
- VA$4k
- IL$2k
- WA$2k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The Senate forecast does not read these figures. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
VotePredictor (ours)
D 99%
a probability from our model
Cook
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Nov 2, 2026
DDHQ
Safe D≈ D 99%
as of Nov 3, 2026
Econ
Safe D≈ D 99%
as of Nov 3, 2026
FPO
Safe D≈ D 99%
as of Nov 2, 2026
Fox
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Nov 1, 2026
IE
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Oct 29, 2026
MS NOW
Safe D≈ D 99%
as of Oct 29, 2026
NBC
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Nov 3, 2026
RCP
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Nov 2, 2026
Sabato
Safe D≈ D 99%
as of Nov 2, 2026
Silver
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Nov 3, 2026
ST
Safe D≈ D 99%
as of Nov 2, 2026
The source we collect records each outlet's rating category, not a probability; some of these outlets run models with their own numbers on their sites. The ≈ figure is the standard conversion of the category (Toss-up 50%, Tilt 60%, Lean 75%, Likely 90%, Solid 99%), the one our scorecard grades them on, not a number they published. They remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Independent models
Win probabilities published by independent statistical models, shown with credit as their terms allow: Who Shows Up (whoshowsup.net), by Kurt Wirth. These are their numbers, not ratings converted by us, and not VotePredictor's. The better-known model forecasters (Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Silver Bulletin, the Economist) don't permit republishing their probabilities, so they appear above by rating only.
Past results
Every U.S. Senate election in Illinois we hold a result for. A state elects two senators on separate cycles, so this covers both of its seats, not only the one on the ballot in 2026.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Dem Sen.-Elect Stratton: 'I Won't Vote for Any of Donald Trump's Nominees'
On Thursday’s broadcast of “CNN News Central,” Sen.-elect Juliana Stratton (D-IL) declared that she “won’t vote for any of Donald Trump’s nominees” in the Senate. Co-host John Berman asked, “President Trump, maybe with a lukewarm endorsement of the current De…
Breitbart News · Today
Why Diverse Leadership Makes America Strong
November’s historic barrier-breakers didn’t win because identity replaced qualifications; they won because voters believed they could deliver. But the real lesson of this election goes beyond proving diversity isn’t the enemy of merit. When our leaders reflec…
The Root · Yesterday
Van Hollen Says No Rubber Stamp for Schumer as Majority Leader Without Support for 'Bold Agenda'
A leading progressive senator on Wednesday said Democrats should not commit to supporting Sen. Chuck Schumer to lead the caucus after the party's historic midterm wins without demanding his support for a "bold agenda" that reflects the needs of the American p…
Common Dreams · Yesterday
Rising Political Stars to Watch After the 2026 Midterms
As the results of the 2026 midterm elections come in, more than a handful of breakout winners are poised to reshape America’s political landscape in the new year. From history-makers like Keisha Lance Bottoms to change-makers like Aaron Ford, let’s take a loo…
The Root · November 4, 2026
America Has Plenty of Firsts to Celebrate After Election Night
Americans made history Tuesday night. Amidst the seasonal pandemonium of ballot counting and number crunching, the country elected several political firsts.Michigan elected its first Muslim senator, choosing Dr. Abdul El-Sayed over Republican candidate Mike R…
The New Republic · November 4, 2026
Juliana Stratton wins Senate seat, makes history for Black women in Illinois
Juliana Stratton defeated Don Tracy to win Illinois’ U.S. Senate race. Her victory makes her the fifth Black woman elected to the Senate and the second to represent Illinois. The post Juliana Stratton wins Senate seat, makes history for Black women in Illinoi…
Rolling Out · November 4, 2026
Juliana Stratton makes history with Black women in the Senate
Democrat Juliana Stratton won election Tuesday to the U.S. Senate representing Illinois, defeating Republican Don Tracy. Currently lieutenant governor, Stratton will succeed Sen. Dick Durbin, a Democrat who is retiring after five terms. Stand with free and in…
Biztoc.com · November 4, 2026
Former Illinois Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton Wins Senate Race to Succeed Dick Durbin
Illinois Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton (D) won the race to succeed retiring five-term Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL) on Tuesday, defeating Republican Don Tracy. The post Former Illinois Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton Wins Senate Race to Succeed Dick Durbin appeared first on …
Breitbart News · November 4, 2026