Democratic
Ed Markey
Incumbent. Voting record and biography →
← all Senate races
Massachusetts U.S. Senate election, 2026
Ed Markey vs. John Deaton. Incumbent renominated.
VotePredictor forecast
Ed Markey favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+20.9
99%
chance to win
Poll-driven model · 7 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology →
Republican
John Deaton
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
| Pollster | Date | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire | 2026-08-24 | D+19.0 |
| University of Massachusetts Department of Political Science/YouGov | 2026-08-12 | D+21.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | 2026-06-23 | D+16.0 |
| Suffolk University | 2026-06-12 | D+25.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | 2026-04-20 | D+23.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | 2026-02-16 | D+29.0 |
| Cygnal[111][C] | 2026-01-25 | D+24.0 |
Other forecasts
Cook
Solid D
as of Sep 15, 2026
DDHQ
Safe D
as of Sep 22, 2026
Econ
Safe D
as of Sep 22, 2026
FPO
Safe D
as of Sep 22, 2026
Fox
Solid D
as of Sep 22, 2026
IE
Solid D
as of Sep 17, 2026
RCP
Solid D
as of Sep 20, 2026
Sabato
Safe D
as of Aug 26, 2026
Silver
Solid D
as of Sep 19, 2026
ST
Safe D
as of Sep 21, 2026
Published ratings are categorical, not probabilities, and remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Past results
Every U.S. Senate election in Massachusetts we hold a result for. A state elects two senators on separate cycles, so this covers both of its seats, not only the one on the ballot in 2026.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Transcript: How Purple-State Democrats Should Talk About Trans Issues
This is a lightly edited transcript of the September 16 edition of Right Now With Perry Bacon. You can watch the video here or by following this show on YouTube or Substack.Perry Bacon: Good morning. I’m Perry Bacon. I’m the host of Right Now on The New Repub…
The New Republic · September 17, 2026
Top Health Nominees Break With RFK Jr. as Measles Cases Surge
Two nominees on course to help lead America’s public health policy have distanced themselves from Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy and his anti-vaccine positions.Dr. Nicole Saphier and HHS counselor Chris Klomp are on track to become t…
The New Republic · September 16, 2026
Ed Markey showed Democrats how to defend trans people and win elections
Opinion: The Massachusetts senator’s primary win shows that voters may be over politicians willing to sacrifice minority groups in pursuit of an imaginary middle ground, writes Josh Ackley.
Advocate.com · September 3, 2026
The Fight for Serious AI Regulation Just Won a Big Victory in Massachusetts
John Nichols After his primary win, Ed Markey says he’s ready to take on “the criminal enterprises” of Big Tech. The post The Fight for Serious AI Regulation Just Won a Big Victory in Massachusetts appeared first on The Nation.
Thenation.com · September 3, 2026
Progressive Senate candidates rack up primary wins even as they get outspent: From the Politics Desk - NBC News
Progressive Senate candidates rack up primary wins even as they get outspent: From the Politics DeskNBC News Democrat establishment flexes dominance as insurgents fall and GOP bench thins in deep blue strongholdFox News Massachusetts Democrats renominate Sena…
Slashdot.org · September 3, 2026
New Poll Shows Ed Markey's Support Slipping in Deep Blue Massachusetts
Survey finds overwhelming desire for a new generation of leadership and significant opening for independent Republican challenger John Deaton BOSTON, Sept. 3, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- As Massachusetts voters turn their attention to the November general election, …
PRNewswire · September 3, 2026
80-year-old establishment Democrat trounces 'moderate' challenger in Senate primary for Massachusetts
The establishment of the Democratic Party was able to easily fend off a "moderate" challenge in the party's primary for the U.S. Senate seat in Massachusetts.Incumbent Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.), who has been in either the House or the Senate for five decades, …
TheBlaze · September 2, 2026
Massachusetts Senate candidates trade sharp attacks in fiery debate as incumbent Markey skips event
Rep. Seth Moulton and Republican John Deaton clashed over Trump, immigration and Israel in a fiery Massachusetts Senate debate Tuesday night.
Fox News · June 17, 2026