Democratic
Ed Markey
Incumbent. Voting record and biography →
← all Senate races
Ed Markey vs. John Deaton: Massachusetts U.S. Senate election, 2026
Ed Markey vs. John Deaton. Incumbent re-elected.
VotePredictor forecast (our model)
Ed Markey favored
Safe D
99%
chance to win
D+25.3
predicted margin
Poll-driven model · 6 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology → · Today's article: every poll and forecast →
Republican
John Deaton
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Shiva Ayyadurai · Independent
- Joe Tache · Socialism and Liberation
Polls
The polls behind it
13 polls · 6 in today's forecast · newest firstDimmed polls are more than 61 days old. They stay on the record, but today's forecast no longer counts them. Each pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain). VotePredictor adjusted (“Our adj.” on small screens) is not a poll: it is our correction of that poll, for its pollster's record in past elections and for registered-voter or all-adult samples. It is the number our forecast reads.
PollsterDateSampleMarginOur adj.VotePredictor adjusted
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Ed MarkeyDEM · incumbent$8.7M raised
Spent $9.5MCash on hand $800k14% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
- MARKEY VICTORY FUND$2.2M
- JUSTICE 2026$94k
- DSCC$62k
- BLUE SENATE 2026$26k
- EFFRON, BLAIR W.$21k
Industries
- Unemployed$572k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$153k
- Not Reported$138k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$108k
- Retired$104k
States
- MA$970k
- CA$240k
- NY$184k
- DC$124k
- MD$61k
John DeatonREP$1.7M raised
Spent $1.2MCash on hand $488kDebts $1.0M6% from donors under $200Self-funded $1.1M
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
- DEATON, JOHN E$1.1M
- AKMAKJIAN, JAMES$7k
- AVERY, MAX$7k
- CHAPMAN, PETER$7k
- DEATON, JORDAN$7k
Industries
- Retired$136k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$64k
- Technology & Communications$18k
- Legal & Professional Services$10k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$9k
States
- MA$170k
- CA$46k
- FL$42k
- NY$24k
- TX$19k
Joe TacheOTH$285k raised
Spent $262kCash on hand $24k28% from donors under $200Self-funded $570
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Education & Academia$40k
- Technology & Communications$33k
- Unemployed$14k
- Homemaker$8k
- Retired$7k
States
- MA$174k
- IL$9k
- CA$4k
- NY$2k
- DC$2k
Shiva AyyaduraiIND$239k raised
Spent $159kCash on hand $79k7% from donors under $200Self-funded $11k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$52k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$46k
- Defense & Aerospace$10k
- Not Reported$7k
- Manufacturing & Industrial$4k
States
- MA$35k
- NE$29k
- CA$26k
- WI$14k
- TN$12k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The Senate forecast does not read these figures. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
VotePredictor (ours)
D 99%
a probability from our model
Cook
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Nov 2, 2026
DDHQ
Safe D≈ D 99%
as of Nov 3, 2026
Econ
Safe D≈ D 99%
as of Nov 3, 2026
FPO
Safe D≈ D 99%
as of Nov 2, 2026
Fox
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Nov 1, 2026
IE
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Oct 29, 2026
MS NOW
Safe D≈ D 99%
as of Oct 29, 2026
NBC
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Nov 3, 2026
RCP
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Nov 2, 2026
Sabato
Safe D≈ D 99%
as of Nov 2, 2026
Silver
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Nov 3, 2026
ST
Safe D≈ D 99%
as of Nov 2, 2026
The source we collect records each outlet's rating category, not a probability; some of these outlets run models with their own numbers on their sites. The ≈ figure is the standard conversion of the category (Toss-up 50%, Tilt 60%, Lean 75%, Likely 90%, Solid 99%), the one our scorecard grades them on, not a number they published. They remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Independent models
Win probabilities published by independent statistical models, shown with credit as their terms allow: Who Shows Up (whoshowsup.net), by Kurt Wirth. These are their numbers, not ratings converted by us, and not VotePredictor's. The better-known model forecasters (Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Silver Bulletin, the Economist) don't permit republishing their probabilities, so they appear above by rating only.
Past results
Every U.S. Senate election in Massachusetts we hold a result for. A state elects two senators on separate cycles, so this covers both of its seats, not only the one on the ballot in 2026.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Incoming House Oversight Chair Has Two Words for 'Trump Crime Family' and Their Allies: 'Lawyer Up'
After Democrats took back both chambers of the US Congress Tuesday, Rep. Robert Garcia, the incoming Democratic chair of the House Oversight Committee, had two words for President Donald Trump and his family: “Lawyer up.”With solid majorities in the House and…
Common Dreams · November 4, 2026
Democrat immediately threatens subpoenas for tech executives in wake of midterms
Ed Markey signaled plans to subpoena Big Tech executives after Democrats captured the Senate and House, promising "forests" of new subpoenas.
Fox News · November 4, 2026
Here are The Biggest Flipped Seats of Midterm 2026
Somebody check on Capitol Hill. Democrats took both chambers of Congress, but the 2026 midterms delivered a political earthquake well beyond the Beltway. Black candidates didn’t just show up—they made history. With barrier-breaking wins from Keisha Lance Bott…
The Root · November 4, 2026
'A Total Shellacking': Democrats Win US Senate by Flipping Seats in Iowa, Carolinas, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas
Some key US Senate races haven't yet been called, but as of late Tuesday, Democrats have flipped enough seats to secure majorities in both chambers of Congress—a clear rejection of President Donald Trump's Republican Party by voters across the country.The dec…
Common Dreams · November 4, 2026
Democrat Sen. Ed Markey Wins Re-Election in Massachusetts
Sen. Ed Markey (D-MA) has won re-election in the Massachusetts Senate race, defeating Republican challenger John Deaton on Tuesday evening. The post Democrat Sen. Ed Markey Wins Re-Election in Massachusetts appeared first on Breitbart.
Breitbart News · November 4, 2026
Markey wins reelection to US Senate
U.S. Sen. Ed Markey cruised to a reelection victory Tuesday night, defeating Republican John Deaton, according to initial results.
The Sun Chronicle · November 4, 2026
New Poll Shows Ed Markey's Support Slipping in Deep Blue Massachusetts
Survey finds overwhelming desire for a new generation of leadership and significant opening for independent Republican challenger John Deaton BOSTON, Sept. 3, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- As Massachusetts voters turn their attention to the November general election, …
PRNewswire · September 3, 2026
80-year-old establishment Democrat trounces 'moderate' challenger in Senate primary for Massachusetts
The establishment of the Democratic Party was able to easily fend off a "moderate" challenge in the party's primary for the U.S. Senate seat in Massachusetts.Incumbent Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.), who has been in either the House or the Senate for five decades, …
TheBlaze · September 2, 2026