Democratic
Ben Ray Luján
Incumbent. Voting record and biography →
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Ben Ray Luján vs. Larry Marker: New Mexico U.S. Senate election, 2026
Ben Ray Luján vs. Larry Marker. Incumbent re-elected.
VotePredictor forecast (our model)
Ben Ray Luján favored
Safe D
99%
chance to win
D+16.1
predicted margin
Poll-driven model · 3 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology → · Today's article: every poll and forecast →
Republican
Larry Marker
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
The polls behind it
4 polls · 3 in today's forecast · newest firstDimmed polls are more than 61 days old. They stay on the record, but today's forecast no longer counts them. Each pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain). VotePredictor adjusted (“Our adj.” on small screens) is not a poll: it is our correction of that poll, for its pollster's record in past elections and for registered-voter or all-adult samples. It is the number our forecast reads.
PollsterDateSampleMarginOur adj.VotePredictor adjusted
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Ben Ray LujánDEM · incumbent$9.1M raised
Spent $6.3MCash on hand $2.8M20% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$841k
- Legal & Professional Services$192k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$153k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$145k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$136k
States
- NM$542k
- CA$355k
- DC$205k
- NY$153k
- IL$103k
Larry MarkerREP$99k raised
Spent $90kCash on hand $888% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Self-Employed & Freelance$37k
- Retired$25k
- Not Reported$10k
States
- NM$80k
- CA$500
- OK$500
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The Senate forecast does not read these figures. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
VotePredictor (ours)
D 99%
a probability from our model
Cook
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Nov 2, 2026
DDHQ
Safe D≈ D 99%
as of Nov 3, 2026
Econ
Safe D≈ D 99%
as of Nov 3, 2026
FPO
Safe D≈ D 99%
as of Nov 2, 2026
Fox
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Nov 1, 2026
IE
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Oct 29, 2026
MS NOW
Safe D≈ D 99%
as of Oct 29, 2026
NBC
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Nov 3, 2026
RCP
Likely D≈ D 90%
as of Nov 2, 2026
Sabato
Safe D≈ D 99%
as of Nov 2, 2026
Silver
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Nov 3, 2026
ST
Safe D≈ D 99%
as of Nov 2, 2026
The source we collect records each outlet's rating category, not a probability; some of these outlets run models with their own numbers on their sites. The ≈ figure is the standard conversion of the category (Toss-up 50%, Tilt 60%, Lean 75%, Likely 90%, Solid 99%), the one our scorecard grades them on, not a number they published. They remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Independent models
Win probabilities published by independent statistical models, shown with credit as their terms allow: Who Shows Up (whoshowsup.net), by Kurt Wirth. These are their numbers, not ratings converted by us, and not VotePredictor's. The better-known model forecasters (Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Silver Bulletin, the Economist) don't permit republishing their probabilities, so they appear above by rating only.
Past results
Every U.S. Senate election in New Mexico we hold a result for. A state elects two senators on separate cycles, so this covers both of its seats, not only the one on the ballot in 2026.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Democrat Sen. Ben Ray Lujan Wins Re-Election in New Mexico
Sen. Ben Ray Luján (D-NM) has won re-election in the state of New Mexico, defeating Republican challenger Larry Marker. The post Democrat Sen. Ben Ray Luján Wins Re-Election in New Mexico appeared first on Breitbart.
Breitbart News · November 4, 2026
New Mexico Senator Trounces Trump With Spanish Insult After 'New America' Idea
Oye, President Donald Trump. Sen. Ben Ray Luján (D-N.M.) has a word for you now that you're proposing to rename New Mexico as New America. "It's New Mexico, always has been and always will be," Luján wrote in a recent X post. "Just like how you'll always be a…
Biztoc.com · September 8, 2026
Luján Holds Big Lead in New Mexico Senate Race
A new Albuquerque Journal poll in New Mexico finds Ben Ray Luján (D) leading Larry Marker (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 53% to 38%. New Mexico Senate Race Ben Ray Luján (D) 53% Larry Marker (R) 38% Albuquerque Journal poll
Politicalwire.com · September 1, 2026
Treasury Sec. Forgets Own Job in Rush to Dodge Democrat’s Questions
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent became so engrossed Wednesday in providing non-answers about the president’s $1.8 billion “anti-weaponization” fund that he accidentally dodged a question about his own employment.Bessent’s appearance before the Senate Finance…
The New Republic · June 3, 2026
Right-to-Repair Laws Gain Political Momentum Across America
"California, Colorado, Minnesota, New York, Connecticut, Oregon and Washington have all passed comprehensive right-to-repair regulations," reports CNBC, "covering everything from consumer electronics and farm equipment to wheelchairs and automobiles." And …
Slashdot.org · April 27, 2026
IN-DEPTH: 'We Had to Take Action': New Mexico Referendum Project Aims to Rescind Six Progressive Laws Using Rights Granted in State Constitution
A grassroots movement is challenging six laws passed in the New Mexico state legislature that its organizers say threaten their communities, infringe upon parental rights, and compromise the election process. “People are starting to realize that this is not t…
Freerepublic.com · September 17, 2023
Court ruling sought on NM abortion law (Filing says legislative repeal of 1969 law leaves 1963 law in place)
A petition filed last week in the Fifth Judicial District for Chaves County in Roswell calls for a return to a 1963 law outlawing abortion. State Sen. David Gallegos, R-Eunice, Larry Marker of Roswell, who’s recently filed as a write-in candidate for the offi…
Freerepublic.com · July 8, 2022