Democratic
Ben Ray Luján
Incumbent. Voting record and biography →
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New Mexico U.S. Senate election, 2026
Ben Ray Luján vs. Larry Marker. Incumbent renominated.
VotePredictor forecast
Ben Ray Luján favored
Lean D · predicted margin D+15.0
83%
chance to win
Poll-driven model · 1 matched poll. Full forecast history and methodology →
Republican
Larry Marker
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
| Pollster | Date | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| Research & Polling Inc.[51] | 2026-08-28 | D+15.0 |
Other forecasts
Cook
Solid D
as of Sep 15, 2026
DDHQ
Safe D
as of Sep 22, 2026
Econ
Safe D
as of Sep 22, 2026
FPO
Safe D
as of Sep 22, 2026
Fox
Solid D
as of Sep 22, 2026
IE
Solid D
as of Sep 17, 2026
RCP
Likely D
as of Sep 20, 2026
Sabato
Safe D
as of Aug 26, 2026
Silver
Solid D
as of Sep 19, 2026
ST
Safe D
as of Sep 21, 2026
Published ratings are categorical, not probabilities, and remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Past results
Every U.S. Senate election in New Mexico we hold a result for. A state elects two senators on separate cycles, so this covers both of its seats, not only the one on the ballot in 2026.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
No recent verified candidate stories are available in the site's news feed for this race yet.