Democratic
Marquita Bradshaw
Major-party general-election nominee.
← all Senate races
Marquita Bradshaw vs. Bill Hagerty: Tennessee U.S. Senate election, 2026
Marquita Bradshaw vs. Bill Hagerty. Incumbent re-elected.
VotePredictor forecast (our model)
Bill Hagerty favored
Safe R
99%
chance to win
R+27.4
predicted margin
Poll-driven model · 2 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology → · Today's article: every poll and forecast →
Republican
Bill Hagerty
Incumbent. Voting record and biography →
Other listed candidates
- Tharon Chandler · Independent
- Andrew Gerena · Independent
- Jeremy Hearn · Independent
- Robert Jones · Independent
- James Macon III · Independent
- Yoshi Matthews · Independent
- David Sutman Jr. · Independent
- Catherine Whitson · Independent
Polls
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstEach pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain). VotePredictor adjusted (“Our adj.” on small screens) is not a poll: it is our correction of that poll, for its pollster's record in past elections and for registered-voter or all-adult samples. It is the number our forecast reads.
PollsterDateSampleMarginOur adj.VotePredictor adjusted
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Bill HagertyREP · incumbent$17.2M raised
Spent $12.3MCash on hand $5.0M17% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$1.2M
- Self-Employed & Freelance$251k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$244k
- Homemaker$129k
- Legal & Professional Services$93k
States
- TN$1.1M
- FL$229k
- TX$223k
- CA$219k
- NY$216k
Marquita BradshawDEM$35k raised
Spent $27kCash on hand $8k71% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$5k
- Retired$2k
- Technology & Communications$250
States
- TN$6k
- TX$1k
- CA$750
- FL$500
- WA$417
David Sutman Jr.IND$26k raised
Spent $26kCash on hand $5000% from donors under $200Self-funded $26k
Robert JonesIND$12k raised
Spent $15kCash on hand $7070% from donors under $200Self-funded $12k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
- JONES, ROBERT$12k
Yoshi MatthewsIND$47 raised
Spent $8kCash on hand −$2k100% from donors under $200
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The Senate forecast does not read these figures. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
VotePredictor (ours)
R 99%
a probability from our model
Cook
Solid R≈ R 99%
as of Nov 2, 2026
DDHQ
Safe R≈ R 99%
as of Nov 3, 2026
Econ
Safe R≈ R 99%
as of Nov 3, 2026
FPO
Safe R≈ R 99%
as of Nov 2, 2026
Fox
Solid R≈ R 99%
as of Nov 1, 2026
IE
Solid R≈ R 99%
as of Oct 29, 2026
MS NOW
Safe R≈ R 99%
as of Oct 29, 2026
NBC
Solid R≈ R 99%
as of Nov 3, 2026
RCP
Solid R≈ R 99%
as of Nov 2, 2026
Sabato
Safe R≈ R 99%
as of Nov 2, 2026
Silver
Solid R≈ R 99%
as of Nov 3, 2026
ST
Safe R≈ R 99%
as of Nov 2, 2026
The source we collect records each outlet's rating category, not a probability; some of these outlets run models with their own numbers on their sites. The ≈ figure is the standard conversion of the category (Toss-up 50%, Tilt 60%, Lean 75%, Likely 90%, Solid 99%), the one our scorecard grades them on, not a number they published. They remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Independent models
Win probabilities published by independent statistical models, shown with credit as their terms allow: Who Shows Up (whoshowsup.net), by Kurt Wirth. These are their numbers, not ratings converted by us, and not VotePredictor's. The better-known model forecasters (Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Silver Bulletin, the Economist) don't permit republishing their probabilities, so they appear above by rating only.
Past results
Every U.S. Senate election in Tennessee we hold a result for. A state elects two senators on separate cycles, so this covers both of its seats, not only the one on the ballot in 2026.
YearWinnerMargin
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Yahoo Entertainment · November 5, 2020
Republican Bill Hagerty is next Tennessee U.S. Senator, defeating Democrat Marquita Bradshaw
Election results for Republican Bill Hagerty vs. Democrat Marquita Bradshaw in race to fill vacant U.S. Senate seat in Tennessee.
Tennessean · November 4, 2020
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