VotePredictor
← all House races

Nevada District 3 election, 2026

Susie Lee vs. Martin O'Donnell. Today's article: every forecast for this race →

VotePredictor forecast
Susie Lee favored
Likely D · predicted margin D+8.3
91%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+1.0
2026 national environment
D+8.0
District polls
1, averaging D+7.0
Forecast spread
±6.1 points

Margin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). The 1 district poll are blended in by inverse variance, about 39% of the weight: the model alone said D+9.2.

Republican

Martin O'Donnell

Major-party general-election nominee.

Other listed candidates

  • Jon Kamerath · Independent American

Polls

The polls behind it

1 poll · newest first

Each pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain).

PollsterDateMargin
RedBox Research (via Wikipedia)10-23D+7.0

These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 39% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.

Campaign money

FEC reports through October 14, 2026
Susie LeeDEM · incumbent$5.9M raised
Spent $5.5MCash on hand $931k5% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. HOUSE VICTORY PROJECT 2026$361k
  2. SUSIE LEE VICTORY FUND$121k
  3. JEFFRIES BATTEGROUND PROTECTION FUND$58k
  4. DEMOCRACY SUMMER 2026$42k
  5. FRONTLINE PROTECTION FUND$22k

Industries

  1. Unemployed$1.2M
  2. Self-Employed & Freelance$275k
  3. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$207k
  4. Legal & Professional Services$109k
  5. Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$92k

States

  1. NV$901k
  2. CA$841k
  3. NY$335k
  4. MA$196k
  5. FL$113k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗
Martin O'DonnellREP$4.9M raised
Spent $4.7MCash on hand $185kDebts $3.2M6% from donors under $200Self-funded $3.3M
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. O'DONNELL, MARTY$3.0M
  2. GROW THE MAJORITY$155k
  3. EMMER MAJORITY BUILDERS$35k
  4. DEFEND OUR MAJORITY$24k
  5. MARNELL, ANTHONY A III$14k

Industries

  1. Retired$202k
  2. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$24k
  3. Self-Employed & Freelance$19k
  4. Homemaker$10k
  5. Retail, Food & Consumer Goods$8k

States

  1. NV$129k
  2. TX$47k
  3. CA$45k
  4. FL$22k
  5. NJ$19k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗

What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for NV-3; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Cook Political Report
View House ratings ↗
Inside Elections
View House ratings ↗
Sabato's Crystal Ball
View House analysis ↗

Past results

Every election in Nevada's 3rd district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.

YearWinnerMargin
2022Susie Lee(D)D+4.0
2018Susie Lee(D)D+9.1
2016Jacky Rosen(D)D+1.3
2012Joseph J. Heck(R)R+7.5
2010Joseph J. Heck(R)R+0.7
2008Dina Titus(D)D+5.1
2006Jon C. Porter(R)R+1.9
2004Jon C. Porter(R)R+14.1
2002Jon C. Porter(R)R+18.8

Candidate news

On Abortion Rights, Nevada Offers a Perfect Snapshot of the Midterms

Decked out in a sparkly plaid shirt and a dangly necklace urging “VOTE,” US Rep. Susie Lee was rallying a roomful of canvassers to knock on doors around Las Vegas in support of Nevada’s abortion ballot measure, Question 6. The four-term Democratic congresswom…

Mother Jones · November 2, 2026
Online forum controlled by Nevada GOP House candidate contains slurs and Nazi talk

WASHINGTON (AP) — Long before running for Congress, Marty O’Donnell was an award-winning music composer for the popular “Halo” video game franchise. His work drew legions of fans to an online forum, which the Nevada Republican has tried to turn into a galvan…

Yahoo Entertainment · October 17, 2026
'No tax on tips' takes center stage in a competitive Nevada House race

In Nevada's most competitive congressional district, Democratic Rep. Susie Lee is fending off a challenge from Republican candidate Marty O'Donnell, who has focused his campaign on the popular “no tax on tips” policy

WSB Radio · September 21, 2026
Every Democrat Who Voted Against Impeaching Trump

House Democrats launched another Hail Mary bid to impeach President Donald Trump, but the effort was undercut by members of their own party.More than a dozen Democrats joined 213 Republicans in voting “no” Tuesday night. Another 46 Democrats simply voted “pre…

The New Republic · September 16, 2026

Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗

Nearby in the directory: NV-2 · NV-4